THE WORLD - News from Jan. 18, 2009

The ancient civilization that thrived in the mountain valleys of Yemen was famed for cultivating bountiful crops with a system of cisterns and aqueducts, but today the country is threatened with a major food crisis that experts fear could destabilize the poor neighbor of the Middle East’s oil and banking giants.

In remote villages, families regularly skip meals and spend more than two-thirds of their income on food because of high international prices; some are forced to pull children out of school because they cannot afford it, according to a recent assessment by the World Food Program.

“All they’ve got in some villages is bread and tea, and that’s all they’re feeding their children,” said Adam Taylor-Awni, a consultant involved in the study. And noting that a majority of Yemenis live in remote villages, he added, “There aren’t mechanisms in place to get food to people.”

Yemen has been faced with steadily decreasing supplies of water and a growing population, and international aid agencies warn that the recent rise in global food prices is bringing it close to starvation. Economists and other authorities say the food crisis could further unbalance the already precarious nation of 23 million and, worse yet, spread violence and terrorism to its wealthy neighbors.

The country is known for its lawlessness and unruly tribal society. The central government is weak, and well-armed tribes have regularly kidnapped foreign tourists to blackmail authorities into providing cash hand-outs and government projects. Experts warn that terrorist groups are taking advantage of the worsening economy to recruit more volunteers.

While the global rise in food prices has caused worries about Asia and Africa, Yemen has been largely overlooked because it sits on the Arabian Peninsula, a region noted for the oil wealth of Saudi Arabia and the soaring high-rises and investment houses in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Yemen is an impoverished nation that imports nearly all its food. In 2006, the U.N.’s Food and Agricultural Organization described 37% of the population as undernourished, putting it on par with troubled nations like North Korea and Kenya.

According to the World Food Program, more than half of children less than age 5 have stunted growth due to lack of food and 12.5% experience actual wasting, when the body starts consuming itself for sustenance.

These statistics predate the latest food price rise, and the Rome-based FAO warned last month that the global food crisis would persist well into 2009, with prices expected to remain high and an additional 40 million people around the world pushed into hunger.

In Yemen, the cost of a 110-pound sack of wheat soared from 1,500 Yemeni riyals in 2007 to 7,000 riyals over the summer, before settling in November to 4,500 riyals -- now worth about $22.50.

As food prices have risen, people are having trouble feeding themselves even in the Wadi Dhahr region famed for rich farms and orchards in the mountains near the capital, Sana.

“We dream of meat,” Mahdi, a 32-year-old farmer who grows mostly the mild narcotic plant khat, said shortly before the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha when people usually feast on lamb or beef.

“I have my farm and I work as a government employee, but I know others who don’t have enough to feed their children,” he added, asking that only his first name be used because of the sensitivity over food shortages.

Some families are said to be feeding khat leaves to their children to suppress their hunger pangs. Many Yemenis regularly chew khat in the afternoons to get a mild high, but it has no nutritional value.

Khat is also blamed for contributing to Yemen’s poverty since -- as the chewing habit has spread from the rich to ordinary people -- up to 40% of the water supply is believed to be used to cultivate the plant.

Mohammed Maitami, an economist who heads the Federation of Yemen Chambers of Commerce, estimates that the number of people under the poverty line has increased to 55% of the population, up from 40% a few years ago.

“It is to some extent frightening, Yemen is a very poor country,” he said. “I think the economic situation is breeding the severe political situation.”

Maitami warned that Al Qaeda and other extremist groups were gaining supporters among the poor.

Al Qaeda already has a strong foothold in the country; it is blamed for the 2000 bombing of the destroyer Cole in Aden harbor that left 17 American sailors dead, and an attack in September on the U.S. Embassy in Sana that killed 19 people, including the six attackers.

Yemen’s government has other serious problems. A rebellion of long-neglected Shiite tribes in the north has only recently quieted down, and once-independent southern Yemen is growing restive, while 700,000 refugees have flooded the country from Somalia, across the Gulf of Aden.

Critics say the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh also has been reluctant to draw attention to the hunger problem, especially before elections scheduled due in April. Abdel Ghani Iryani, a consultant to several aid agencies, said the government recently reversed itself after promising to appeal to the international community for food shipments.

“In the beginning their position was, ‘Yes, we recognize there is a serious crisis and we are going to issue an appeal’ and then for political purposes and reasons, they decided not to issue that appeal,” he said. “In all likelihood they are waiting for the elections.”

The government maintains it is aware of the problem and is putting together a program to ease the effects of high food prices. “We have already started the development of a national food security strategy,” said Nabil Shaiban of the Ministry of Planning.

Four decades ago, Yemen could feed itself, with millenniums-old terraced farms working off wells and rainwater, often channeled through aqueducts. Since then, however, the population has increased more than fivefold. The country now imports 90% of its wheat and all its rice.

For the last 20 years, the government has been funding the imports -- and buying the loyalty of powerful tribes -- with the nation’s modest oil reserves, which provide about three quarters of the budget.

But the oil is running out. In 2007, Yemen pumped out 317,000 barrels per day, down from 400,000 in 2005. Economists estimate that within five years, oil revenue will no longer be enough to pay government salaries. Water is also running out, as farmers dig deeper and deeper wells.

If poverty and food shortages throw Yemen into turmoil, some fear the country could provide a base from which Islamic militants could operate. Maitami, the economist, noted that many Yemenis have migrated to other areas of the gulf, making it easier for radicalism to spread.