BET ON A BOMBSHELL
Only one thing is certain at the Emmys: surprise. Just because most pundits bet on “Grey Gardens” to win best TV movie and actress, watch out for “Prayers for Bobby,” starring Sigourney Weaver as an intolerant Christian who seeks redemption after her gay son commits suicide. Voters adore those kinds of message movies mixed with tears. And a variety of upsets may be lurking in the variety races. Can anything finally beat “The Daily Show,” which has won for outstanding variety, music or comedy series for the last six years in a row?
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TV MOVIES
Front-runners
“The Courageous Heart of
Irena Sendler”
“Grey Gardens”
“My Zinc Bed”
“Prayers for Bobby”
“Taking Chance”
“24: Redemption”
“Wallander: One Step Behind”
Possible
“Accidental Friendship”
“Coco Chanel”
“Front of the Class”
“Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story”
“God on Trial”
“Jesse Stone: Thin Ice”
“The Librarian: The Curse of the Judas Chalice”
“Living Proof”
“Loving Leah”
“The Natalee Holloway Story”
“Sybil”
Spotlight: If any telefilm can break HBO’s stranglehold on this category (14 of the last 16 races, including the last five in a row), it may be the Hallmark Hall of Fame presentation of “The Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler.” After all, this sponsored series has won 78 Emmys over the last 55 years, including five awards for the first true made-for-TV movie, “Macbeth,” starring Maurice Evans and Judith Anderson in 1961. Nine more of its programs claimed top honors. Like 11 of HBO’s winners, “Irena Sendler” is based on real events, telling the story of a heroic Polish woman who saved Jewish children during World War II.
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MINISERIES
Front-runners
“Generation Kill”
“House of Saddam”
“Little Dorrit”
“Maneater”
“Oliver Twist”
Possible
“Burn Up”
“Diamonds”
“The Last Templar”
Spotlight: HBO won this category in half of the last 10 derbies, so odds look good for either “Generation Kill” or “House of Saddam” to prevail this year. But the paycaster should beware of the pubcaster. PBS minis such as “Prime Suspect” and “The Lost Prince” have pulled off upsets in the past and now it competes with two critically acclaimed longforms based upon Charles Dickens classics (“Oliver Twist,” “Little Dorrit”). An adaptation of “Nicholas Nickleby” won this category in 1983.
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LEAD ACTOR
IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Front-runners
Kevin Bacon, “Taking Chance”
Kenneth Branagh, “Wallander: One Step Behind”
Paddy Considine, “My Zinc Bed”
Brendan Gleeson, “Into the Storm”
Cuba Gooding Jr., “Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story”
Kevin Kline, “Cyrano de Bergerac”
Ian McKellen, “King Lear”
Igal Naor, “House of Saddam”
Jonathan Pryce, “My Zinc Bed”
Tom Selleck, “Jesse Stone: Thin Ice”
Alexander Skarsgard, “Generation Kill”
Kiefer Sutherland, “24: Redemption”
Possible
Scott Foley, “The Last Templar”
Adam Kaufman, “Loving Leah”
Eriq La Salle, “Relative Stranger”
Alex Loynaz, “Pedro”
Matthew MacFadyen, “Little Dorrit”
Ted McGinley, “Taking a Chance on Love”
Noah Wyle, “The Librarian: Curse of the Judas Chalice”
Spotlight: Winning an Emmy is just what Cuba Gooding Jr. needs to prove that he doesn’t suffer from an Oscar curse. Since snagging an Academy Award for “Jerry Maguire” (1996), he’s appeared in so many duds that he’s become a multiple Razzie nominee (“Boat Trip,” “Daddy Day Camp”). Now he’s reminded us of his ace acting chops in “Gifted Hands” while portraying a man who rose from poverty and insecurity to become a celebrated neurosurgeon.
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LEAD ACTRESS
IN A TV MOVIE/MINI
Front-runners
Lauren Ambrose, “Loving Leah”
Kathy Baker, “Jesse Stone: Thin Ice”
Drew Barrymore, “Grey Gardens”
Tammy Blanchard, “Sybil”
Sarah Chalke, “Maneater”
Jessica Lange, “Grey Gardens”
Shirley MacLaine, “Coco Chanel”
Anna Paquin, “The Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler”
Tracy Pollan, “The Natalee Holloway Story”
Mira Sorvino, “The Last Templar”
Uma Thurman, “My Zinc Bed”
Chandra Wilson, “Accidental Friendship”
Sigourney Weaver, “Prayers for Bobby”
Possible
Claire Foy, “Little Dorrit”
Florence Henderson, “Ladies of the House”
Heather Locklear, “Flirting With Forty”
Rosie O’Donnell, “America”
Jane Seymour, “Dear Prudence”
Lesley Ann Warren, “Bound by a Secret”
Spotlight: In the battle between the two Edies in “Grey Gardens,” Jessica Lange had the upper hand as a stern, domineering mother who held the purse strings, but Drew Barrymore may have an edge in their Emmy bout. Barrymore had the more emotionally flashy role as a debutante yearning to pursue forbidden dreams to become a performer. But Lange has two Oscars (“Blue Sky,” “Tootsie”) and Emmy voters are snobs. Checkmate?
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VARIETY, MUSIC, COMEDY SERIES
Front-runners
“The Colbert Report”
“Daily Show With Jon Stewart”
“Late Night With Conan O’Brien”
“Late Night With Jimmy Fallon”
“Late Show With David Letterman”
“MADtv”
“Real Time With Bill Maher”
“Saturday Night Live”
“Tracey Ullman’s State of the Union”
Possible
“Chelsea Lately”
“Criss Angel Mindfreak”
“Important Things With Demetri Martin”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live”
“The Late Late Show With Craig Ferguson”
“Little Britain USA”
“Shatner’s Raw Nerve”
“Spectacle”
“Tonight Show With Jay Leno”
Spotlight: Lucky for Bill Maher, he’s got a great sense of humor. Last year, on the eve of the Emmy ceremonies, he was tied with Angela Lansbury as the biggest loser ever, then suffered two more defeats to set a whole new record all his own (21 losses, 0 wins). When The Envelope asked Maher how he felt about being Emmy’s biggest snubee, he replied with a snide grin, “I wear that like a badge of honor. I’m a gangsta, so I don’t expect that they’ll ever give it to me.”
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VARIETY SPECIALS
Front-runners
“AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Warren Beatty”
“A Colbert Christmas”
“Indecision 2008: America’s Choice”
“The Kennedy Center Honors”
“Ricky Gervais: Out of England, the Stand-Up Special”
“Stevie Wonder in Performance at the White House”
“Storymakers”
Possible
“Celine Dion Live in Las Vegas: A New Day”
“Chris Rock: Kill the Messenger”
“Dana Carvey: Squatting Monkeys Tell No Lies”
“Fashion Rocks”
“George Strait: ACM Artist of the Decade All Star Concert”
“Kathy Griffin: She’ll Cut a Bitch”
“Russell Peters: Red, White and Brown”
“Samuel L. Jackson: An American Cinematheque Tribute”
“Will Ferrell: You’re Welcome America. A Final Night With George W. Bush”
Spotlight: You thought the presidential election was contentious last year? The Emmy battle between Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert was heartless. (“I told Jon that if he beats me again, no more kisses!” Colbert confessed to The Envelope). Result: “Daily Show” clobbered “Colbert Report” for best variety series, and “Colbert Report” crushed “Daily Show” to claim the writing award. Can’t we all just get along in Emmyland? Yes, if voters give this category to both jokers who were co-hosts of election spoof “Indecision 2008: America’s Choice.”
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NEXT UP
The Emmy season isn’t a long one, but there are some key dates to keep in mind.
June 5: Nominating ballots will be posted on the academy’s website.
June 26: Deadline is 5 p.m. to return the nominating ballots to Ernst & Young.
July 16: Nominations are announced at 5:35 a.m.
Week of Aug. 3: DVDs will be mailed for at-home judging for creative arts awards.
Week of Aug. 10: DVDs will be mailed for at-home judging for telecast award categories.
Aug. 21: Deadline for returning at-home judging ballots for creative arts awards categories.
Aug. 28: Deadline for returning at-home judging ballots for telecast awards.
Sept. 20: CBS telecast of the prime-time Emmy Awards.