Index points to fourth-quarter job growth in state

This economic recovery has been, at best, sporadic. As stimulus spending slows and census jobs end, many fear that the employment picture will get worse rather than better.

But a leading indicator of employment released Wednesday by Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research suggests that employment in the state could continue to tick up this year. It indicates that year-over-year job growth will turn positive in the fourth quarter of this year.

“We’re going to create enough jobs to be above what we were the year before, but the growth rate is going to be anemic,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center.

The state has gained 71,000 jobs this year, but lost 1.3 million in the economic downturn.

Recent economic data have indicated the recovery might be slowing. The nation’s gross domestic product grew just 2.4% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said last week, after growing 3.7% in the first quarter. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index is in positive territory for the year, but had sharp drops in June and July. The U.S. lost 125,000 jobs in June, although the private sector continued to hire.

Some signs remained positive. Exports increased at an annualized rate of 14% in the second quarter, up from 11% in the first quarter.

Anderson economists use the GDP, S&P 500 index, exports and construction spending to calculate their leading indicator index, which reached 99.8 in the third quarter, up from 95.2 in the second quarter. A level below 100 signifies year-over-year job losses.

Construction spending, however, is still weak — down 36.6% in the second quarter of 2010 from the same period last year. The state has lost 405,000 construction jobs from peak employment in the sector in February 2006, a 43% decline.

alana.semuels@latimes.com