With census changes, GOP gains edge in races for Congress, president

WASHINGTON -- New census data show GOP-dominated Texas will gain four seats in the next Congress while traditionally Democratic-leaning states in the Midwest and Northeast will lose representation. The statistics released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday revealed an overall pattern of continued migration from northern states toward the Sunbelt.

The shift of 12 seats, affecting 18 states, gives Republicans a larger-than-expected edge in upcoming congressional and presidential elections.

New York and Ohio will lose two seats, according to the Census Bureau. Florida gains two seats, making it equal with New York for the first time in history.

States losing one seat include Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana, Iowa, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Washington, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina will each gain one seat.

Overall, the U.S. population grew at about 10%. Nevada had the largest rate of growth at 35.1%. California’s population grew at about 10% -- close to the overall national rate but not enough to warrant adding any congressional seats to the state delegation, the first time that has happened since California became a state in 1850.

Congressional-district boundaries are redrawn every 10 years, as seats are allocated among the states to reflect population shifts since the previous census.

Tuesday’s data release opens a new phase of an expensive subterranean election campaign, one that is largely hidden from national view but that could nonetheless determine election results for a decade to come. After making major gains in state capitals this election cycle, Republicans are poised to capitalize on the remapping process.

Democratic election-law experts acknowledge they are behind -- but say they are have been preparing all year for a tough redistricting fight.

“The only way to protect against the onslaught is to fight back,” says J. Gerald Hebert, a Democratic lawyer helping to lead the party’s post-Census response. “To fight back effectively, you have to be well funded, and not marginally so. If you do it on the cheap, you will take a major, long-lasting hit.”

The Democrats’ legal effort appears to be stronger and better organized now than the Republicans. History shows there is reason for Democrats to worry. Following the 1990 census, the GOP gained more than two dozen seats in the U.S. House attributed to the redrawing of district lines, a shift that paved the way for Republicans to take control of the House in 1994.

“We are in a position to exceed those gains,” said Christopher Jankowski, who directs redistricting for the Republican State Leadership Committee. He noted in an interview Tuesday that the GOP now controls 25 legislatures, up from just 14 before the November elections. “That’s more success than either party has seen in modern history,” Jankowski said.

The redrawn boundaries also could determine future control of the White House, as each state receives one electoral college vote for every seat it holds in the House of Representatives.

“The Republicans have been winning Texas consistently at the presidential level, so that could mean three or four electoral college votes coming from states that have been trending Democratic,” said Tim Storey, a senior fellow at the National Conference of State Legislatures who has been tracking redistricting for more than two decades.

Under the Constitution, each state is entitled to at least one seat in the House of Representatives. An additional 385 seats are distributed among the states every 10 years based on their population. As population trends shift, so does the distribution of seats among the states.

All states -- except in seven where a small population entitles the state to only one seat -- will spend the coming year redrawing the boundaries of congressional districts to ensure that each district contains an equal population.

To limit political influence, seven states, including California, will redraw their boundaries in consultation with an independent nonpartisan commission or board. In the others, it is the state legislatures that will craft the new boundaries, often with final approval required from the governor. Republicans hold a marked advantage in this arena: After winning control of 22 state legislative chambers in the last election cycle, the GOP now controls both legislative houses in 25 states. (Democrats control both houses in just 16 states.)

By another measure, Republicans control more than half of the seats in state legislatures across the country, including 57 legislative chambers, compared with 39 controlled by Democrats, according to an analysis by Storey.

Among the states that will gain seats, Republicans control both the state legislatures and governorships in six, while Democrats have control in just one. Republicans control three of the 10 states that will lose seats, and Democrats control just two.