Governors face tough reelection races

The political wave that put Congress in Democrats’ hands in 2006 also gave the party a majority of governorships for the first time since 1995. But now, like their congressional counterparts, many Democratic governors must seek reelection in a hostile environment, particularly after making unpopular decisions to balance state budgets.

Five incumbent Democrats eligible to seek reelection opted not to do so this year, and most of those running face a stiff headwind. As many of them gathered in Boston for this weekend’s National Governors Assn. meeting, they conceded the challenge and said the climate in Washington had not helped. But they plan to make an aggressive case for themselves.

“If you have to play a football game in the ice and snow and rain, you have to have a game plan that allows you to win,” said Iowa Gov. Chet Culver, a former tight end for the Virginia Tech football team who is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Democrats this fall. “It’s all a matter of executing and winning.”

Gubernatorial contests are often an afterthought in years like this, when the balance of power in Washington is at stake. But both parties are placing particular emphasis on statehouses because of governors’ roles in legislative redistricting, which will take effect in 2012.

The White House also has a vested interest in seeing Democratic incumbents reelected in bellwethers like Ohio, where the strength of a state political operation can mean the difference in the 2012 presidential race.

The stakes are high in states that also feature competitive Senate contests. Since 1994, only once have Republicans picked up a Senate seat while losing the governorship in a state where both offices were on the ballot. More than a dozen contested Democratic Senate seats are in states where the governorship is also at stake this year, including California, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas and Illinois.

An analysis from the Rothenberg Political Report released Sunday predicted Republicans were poised for big gains in governorships. “At a minimum, the GOP could gain eight, giving the party 32, but larger gains are very possible,” the analysis said.

Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, chairman of the Democratic Governors Assn., conceded this was a “volatile year,” in which “there are very few races that we can take for granted.” The key for incumbents, he said, is to frame their elections as a clear choice to voters.

“While the other side is filing lawsuits on health reform and focusing on these other social issues, our folks are basically saying, ‘What are we going to do in a very practical way that’s going to make a difference in the lives of people we serve?’” he said.

Markell also predicted Democrats would benefit from divisive Republican primary fights. Bob Vander Plaats, who lost the GOP nomination in Iowa to former Gov. Terry Branstad, is considering a third-party candidacy. In Florida, a bitter and expensive race has developed between state Atty. Gen. Bill McCollum and Rick Scott, a conservative activist and healthcare executive.

But Republicans have more weapons in their political arsenal, including linking the dire fiscal position of many states to the growing deficits in Washington.

“Whether it’s Democrats in Washington or Democrats in state capitals, they have failed to earn the respect of voters on pocketbook issues,” said Mike Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Assn.

Democratic governors are looking to draw clear lines between their performance at home and their party’s in Washington.

Privately, several voiced concern about the message coming from the White House, slow job growth and the perception that the party has been anti-business. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe, viewed as perhaps the only safe Democrat seeking reelection, bluntly said in an interview that his party had overpromised and underdelivered in Washington.

Still, many said they expected the White House to reenergize the party’s base to boost Democratic turnout in November. Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley said an e-mail to President Obama’s supporters in Maryland on his behalf netted more than 1,000 new campaign volunteers in less than a week.

“I think all of their organizing has the promise of turning up the turnout in ways that we did not see in New Jersey,” O’Malley said, referring to incumbent Jon Corzine’s loss in his 2009 reelection bid. “The White House realizes that they have to work that, and that is how they can make the critical difference in a lot of races.”

michael.memoli@latimes.com