As for governors, Democrats hanging on by their fingernails

In the evolving expectations game for Democrats, Delaware Gov. Jack Markell offered an intriguing metric by which to judge success for the party in gubernatorial races this fall.

“We think we could end up in a place where, after the election, Democratic governors represent more electoral votes than we do today, and we could have more people with a Democratic governor,” Markell, chair of the Democratic Governors Assn., said during a Q-and-A with reporters in Washington on Tuesday morning.

The Republican Governors Assn. recently boasted that it was on track to control 30 governorships after the November elections. The DGA has welcomed the GOP’s bullish predictions, but Markell’s comments reflect the calculation that the party is struggling to retain its narrow 26-24 majority of state posts today.

Still, Markell argued that Democrats were “on offense, and we plan to win.” And he made an argument similar to the one that others in the party have made of late: that as voters zero in on the choices ahead of them, Democratic candidates are seeing a shift in momentum.

“The postmortems of this election were already written this summer, before the voters even engaged. But voters are paying attention now,” he said. “The movement toward Democrats we are seeing is a result of both that engagement and the electorate’s desire to reward results.”

Republican candidates for governor fall into two categories, Markell said: “those who are out of step” with voters and those “who are genuinely unfit for office.” In the latter category, he said, were the GOP’s nominees in two of the largest states, Rick Scott in Florida and Carl Paladino in New York.

These types of candidates help make the election a choice between parties, he said, and not a referendum on Democrats in Washington.

“Republicans are counting on the electorate being blindingly hostile. They are hoping that a frustrated electorate provides only downside for Democrats, and they are banking on it,” he said. “But voters aren’t looking to punish a party. They are looking for results, and I am confident that voters will gravitate toward the governors who have produced results and the candidates who offer plans that will do the same.”

Mike Schrimpf, a spokesman for the RGA, countered that although most Republican incumbents were poised to win reelection, few Democrats were similarly cruising.

“It’s ironic that he’s talking about our candidates’ fitness for office when his candidates are only leading outright in less than 10 states,” he added.

Travis Burk, a spokesman for Scott’s campaign, also defended the candidate as “an outsider with business experience and an honest plan to turn Florida around,” and said voters would reject Democrat Alex Sink’s “lack of accountability and incompetence.”

The race for a governorship is often overshadowed by the intense focus inside the Beltway on winning control of Congress. But with 37 seats up for grabs this year, including 24 open seats, the state races have drawn more attention, particularly because of the role governors will play in the decennial redistricting process.

And in 2012, control of governorships also can boost presidential candidates in battleground states such as Florida and Ohio, states with two of the hottest races this November. Of the $15 million that the Democratic National Committee had transferred to state and party campaign committees, $2 million went to those two states alone.

Democrats credit Ted Strickland’s 2006 election in Ohio for helping lay the groundwork for a Democratic revival there that boosted Barack Obama in 2008. But Strickland is among incumbents struggling now to hold on to his seat. A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio today him trailing Republican John Kasich 50-41%.

By Markell’s gauge – the value of states electorally – the parties are currently evenly divided. Republicans control the governorship in 24 states worth 268 electoral votes, and Democrats control 26 states worth 267 electoral votes.

Democrats could easily counterbalance Republican pickups in several states by flipping control of California, worth 55 electoral votes. Democrat Jerry Brown was ahead of or tied with Republican Meg Whitman in six of the last seven public polls. Winning Florida would pick up another 27.

The Cook Political Report currently forecasts a gain of six to eight governorships for the GOP.

mmemoli@tribune.com

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