Candidates for governor, Senate keeping an eye on states’ unemployment figures

The national unemployment rate has long been identified as an important electoral metric, particularly so this year for Democrats seeking to hold majorities in Congress.

New state-by-state data released Friday may be just as important, particularly in races for governor that are a major focus of parties this year ahead of decennial redistricting.

It also is being used as ammunition in U.S. Senate races where current governors are candidates.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 23 states and the District of Columbia saw a decrease in their unemployment rate, compared with 11 states where the rate increased. Almost all of the shifts were small, just a few tenths of a percent.

Over a broader time period some states saw more significant shifts, however, some of which explain the political peril their governors are in.

In Nevada, for instance, the state’s unemployment rate is now 14.4%, a 1.7% increase in the past year, leapfrogging Michigan for the worst rate in the nation. Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons did not even survive his primary in June. The state’s weak economy has also hurt Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who is still locked in a tough reelection fight against Sharron Angle.

Florida saw the fourth-largest year-to-year increase in unemployment, something one of the contenders in the battle for U.S. Senate has already capitalized on.

“Having 1,100,000 Floridians out of work is a sobering reminder of the consequences bad policies have,” Republican Marco Rubio said. “We can’t afford more of this Washington agenda, and the American people will soon have an opportunity to show that we won’t stand for it.”

The statement has the benefit of attacking both Gov. Charlie Crist, who appeared with President Obama to promote the stimulus last year, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek, who voted to support the Recovery Act and healthcare reform.

The numbers are a mixed bag for some other candidates seeking reelection as governor. Ohio has the 11th-worst unemployment rate in the nation at 10%, and Gov. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, has trailed in most recent polling. But the jobless rate has dropped 0.7% in the past 12 months; only 10 states saw larger decreases.

Iowa, meanwhile, has one of the 10 lowest unemployment rates in the country at 6.8%. But Democratic Gov. Chet Culver appears headed to a double-digit defeat in November, against former Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican.

New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch, meanwhile, boasts of “the second-fastest job growth in the country” in a new ad released today. Of all incumbents seeking reelection, his state’s unemployment rate is the lowest. Lynch, a Democrat, leads in most polls, though Republicans sense an opportunity for an upset against the three-term governor.

Republicans preside over the three states with the lowest rates of unemployment: North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska. John Hoeven, North Dakota’s governor, is considered a lock in his bid for the Senate there, while Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman is a cinch for reelection. South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds is term-limited, but his Republican lieutenant governor is poised to succeed him.

mmemoli@tribune.com

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