A gathering end-of-summer storm of negative political sentiment

Democrats went back to work on Tuesday, fresh from what was supposed to be the summer of economic recovery, only to find themselves facing the fall of their political pummeling.

With the general election eight weeks away, Democrats finished the Labor Day holidays, the traditional end of summer, to wage autumn campaigns amid what polls and prognosticators predicted would be an ever-worsening political climate. The malaise is so deep that it threatens Democratic control of Congress and is likely cast a pall even on the presidential election two years away.

In the House, where Republicans need to gain a net 39 seats to win control, the Cook Political Report’s current outlook is for a Republican net gain of at least 40 seats. At this point, only 209 House seats are “solid,” “likely or “lean Democratic,” while 181 seats are “solid,” “likely” or “lean Republican,” and 45 seats are in the “toss-up” column, the report said Tuesday.

Earlier, the Rothenberg Political Report moved 20 House races toward the GOP, citing “national and local polls [that] continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects.”

“Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible,” Rothenberg said.

On the Senate side, Republicans face a tougher job, having to win a net 10 seats from the 19 Democratic seats at stake. The GOP is defending 18 seats of its own. No one expects Democrats to lose control of the Senate, but their grasp is expected to sharply loosen.

But the elections are just the surface manifestation of the deeper wave of discontent washing through the country, which is trying to deal with a stuttering economic recovery. Stubbornly high unemployment and an unhappiness with Democrats’ performance in Congress and the White House are among factors threatening to squeeze incumbents.

And those factors spell special trouble for the Democrats as they seek to mount a counterattack this year. President Obama already has called for Congress to help small businesses with new tax cuts and has offered another round of spending on infrastructure -- both designed to foster job creation. This week, the president will travel to Ohio to outline his proposals, first made on Monday in Milwaukee.

Even as Obama pushes economic proposals, polls show there is a general lack of enthusiasm for Democrats who rode President Obama’s tide of euphoria and change into the White House in 2008. According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Monday, Republicans hold a two-point lead over Democrats in the generic ballot, but that becomes a 13-point lead among those most likely to vote in November.

That finding is similar to the Wall Street Journal- NBC News poll also released on Monday. That poll found an even split at 43% on the question of whether Republicans or Democrats should run Congress. But likely voters put the GOP ahead 49% to 40%.

Even more worrisome for Democrats, the Washington Post/ABC poll found voters said they trusted Republicans about the same as they trusted Democrats to handle the nation’s problems. About 40% said they had more confidence in Democrats and 38% said the GOP. Three months ago, Democrats had a 12-point advantage.

On the economy, 43% of voters said they agreed with Republicans when it came to dealing with financial problems, while 39% favored Democrats, the poll found.

The WSJ/NBC News poll found only 26% of voters said they believed the economy would get better in the next year, down from 47% a year ago. About three of every five voters surveyed said they believed the country was on the wrong track, up from 48% a year ago. Only two of every five voters said they approved of how President Obama was handling the economy.

michael.muskal@latimes.com