While Palin and Perry fiddle, it’s Bachmann who’s on fire

As Sarah Palin and Rick Perry wrestle with whether to join the 2012 GOP presidential field, Michele Bachmann is surging, a new poll said Wednesday.

Palin and Perry’s Hamlet turn has created an opening for Bachmann, who, according to a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, now stands second to Mitt Romney among registered voters nationally.

The Minnesota congresswoman stood at 14% to Romney’s 25, a leap of eight points from a similar poll conducted a month ago. Romney’s support has stayed flat.

But as a warning to Bachmann to not grow complacent, the poll shows Palin, the ex-Alaska governor, and Texas. Gov. Perry as possible threats should they decide to jump in. Palin stood at 12%, while Perry drew double digits at 10%.

“The question about Rep. Bachmann is whether she is the flavor of the month, like Donald Trump was for a while, or does she have staying power?,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute. “Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann’s fortunes may depend on whether Govs. Palin or Perry get into the race. All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP’s ‘tea party’ constituency.”

Romney and Bachmann stand to benefit the most if neither Palin nor Perry gets in, Brown said. The survey was especially cruel to contenders Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, both of whom stood below 5%.

For front-runner Romney, the poll was a mixed bag. While his support does not appear to be growing, he is the only GOP contender who continues to appear to be competitive in a contest with President Obama. Obama would beat Romney by six points if the election were held today. Otherwise, Obama pastes Bachmann by 12, Perry by 13, and Palin by 19 points.

Romney was the only Republican the poll found who did better with independents than Obama. In the meantime, the poll showed a large gender gap at play, with women favoring the president to a far greater degree than men.

“The gender gap is shaping up as a major factor in the 2012 presidential campaign, bigger perhaps than the 12-point swing in 2008,” Brown said.

The poll was released on a day when President Obama’s reelection campaign announced that it had raised a mind-bending $86 million in the second quarter of the year to benefit the president and the Democratic National Committee. That total dwarfs the collections of the entire GOP field.

Romney raked in just short of $18 million in that time. Bachmann’s second-quarter take is expected later this week.

Palin said in a Newsweek interview released this week that she is still determining whether to make a White House run. Meanwhile, Perry has embarked on an ambitious national traveling schedule that many believe is a harbinger of a presidential bid.

Quinnipiac surveyed 2,311 registered voters between July 5 to 11 with a margin of error of 2 percentage points using live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones.