What to expect from cruise lines this year

The first quarter of 2012 was supposed to be a sweet spot for passenger cruise lines. Wave season, as it’s known, marks a time when cruise companies and travel agents roll out deep discounts on cruise vacations and rack up lots of sales.

But that changed Jan. 13, when the Costa Concordia struck rocks off western Italy, killing at least 11 passengers (as of Travel’s press time Friday) in one of the worst cruise-ship tragedies in recent times. Images and videos of the listing liner have appeared continually in the media, often accompanied by interviews with survivors, who say panic and chaos took hold during the ship’s deadly slide.

The Concordia tragedy could not have come at a more inopportune time for the industry, which is recovering from the 2008 economic bust. Before the accident, the cruise market was expected to grow 5.6% and carry 20.3 million passengers in 2012, according to a forecast from Cruise Market Watch.

Now industry observers wonder how long it will take for the accident to fade from consumers’ minds and the idea of cruises as a good vacation value to resurface. Carnival Corp., which owns Costa, said in a statement that the loss of the ship alone would cost the company $85 million to $95 million. “In addition, the company anticipates other costs to the business that are not possible to determine at this time,” the statement said.

Some say avid cruise passengers probably won’t be deterred, but the occasional or novice cruiser might be skittish. “The next few weeks will be very telling,” said Gabe Saglie, senior editor of Travelzoo, the online site that highlights cruise deals. “It’s really going to be about the cruisers who are not your seasoned cruisers.”

Peggy Goldman, owner of Friendly Planet Travel in Jenkintown, Pa., said she had a few calls from customers asking about safety issues but no cancellations so far. Goldman thinks the Concordia accident will have an impact on sales in the short term, but then the rarity of a cruise ship tragedy of this magnitude will become clearer.

“I can’t imagine that any other captain who wants to keep his job, or any cruise line that wants to keep its stock price up, is going to allow any sloppiness in their safety procedures after this,” Goldman said.

In the meantime, these trends might indicate what’s on the horizon for cruises and cruise passengers in 2012.

Price points: Andi McClure-Mysza, co-owner of Montrose Travel in La Crescenta, said passengers should expect the cost of a cruise to go up a bit this year. “From a trend standpoint, prices are still depressed,” she said. “So there are still good values to be had out there.”

Online travel company CruiseCompete calculated average 2012 prices charged by Carnival, Celebrity, Holland America, Norwegian, Princess and Royal Caribbean. As of this month, the cheapest inside cabin price per passenger starts at $681 for a February cruise, $687 for March, a low $615 for November and $621 next January. Summer prices jump to $1,064 in July and $1,004 in August.

These average prices aren’t exactly what you’ll pay; they’re just a snapshot of what costs look like at the moment.

Ships’ shape: New ships always create buzz and excitement. Carnival Breeze (3,690 passengers), Celebrity Reflection (3,030 passengers) and Oceania Riviera (1,250 passengers) are among seven set to debut this year. Disney Fantasy (2,500 berths), a sister ship to the Disney Dream, also arrives this year. (The cruise line will sail from New York, Seattle and Galveston, Texas, for the first time this year too.) Royal Caribbean’s sister ships continue to be the big draw for bookings. “Sales are booming on Oasis and Allure,” McClure-Mysza said. Where else but on the Allure can you walk amid thousands of plants and trees in a Central Park at sea?

River madness (still): River cruising is the juggernaut that just keeps rolling along. Europe, with the Rhine, Rhone and Danube, is a favorite of the river cruise set, while new destinations in Asia such as the Mekong River pique interest too.

The big news for U.S. river lovers is the return of a paddle-wheel steamboat to the Mississippi River. The American Queen (the old Delta Queen, a replicated steamboat) will start sailing in April with itineraries on the north and south stretches of the Mississippi River and on the Ohio and Tennessee rivers. American Cruise Lines will launch a new Victorian-style riverboat in August.

Home-port advantage: Sixty percent of all cruise ships are positioned in the Caribbean, but there’s a growing trend toward boosting home-port options so passengers can drive, not fly, to ships. For example Galveston, back on its feet after devastating Hurricane Ike in 2008, will be a temporary home for Disney Magic and Crown Princess this year. And post-Katrina New Orleans is on the rebound too as winter home port for Royal Caribbean’s Voyager of the Seas.

Kids are here to stay: DreamWorks characters on Allure, Oasis and Freedom of the Seas; Mickey and friends on Disney cruises; and Norwegian’s mash-up with Nickelodeon are signs that the boom in kid-friendly cruising shows no signs of abating. “Multi-generational families are so prevalent on cruise ships that they now have to create adult-only areas,” McClure-Mysza said. “Ships will be finding ways to better manage families.”

Extra onboard costs: A trend toward flexible dining options, with separate prices for meals and drinks, will grow. Although it’s a plus to have more dining options, Carolyn Spencer Brown of Cruise Critic labeled this as “unbundling” of fares and warns passengers to be aware of the extra spending and how it might affect their travel budget. “You’re paying decently cheap fares but you can spend a million times more onboard,” she said.

What’s hot: The Mediterranean is flooded with ships cruising the coastal waters of Italy, Greece, Spain and France. That may cool, experts said, and these destinations may be on the upswing.

* Caribbean. The islands are becoming popular again because of the variety of cultures and destinations. “You could do the same cruise every year for a decade and always discover new things,” Spencer Brown said.

* Hawaii. For the first time, the Disney Wonder will cruise from Los Angeles to Hawaii in April and again in October. Trips are long (14 to 15 nights) with more than a week of at-sea days. Norwegian continues its Pride of American tours of the islands that last seven to nine days after you are in Hawaii.

* Australia. This could be the hot new destination, Spencer Brown said. Carnival Solstice will send a ship for an eight-day tour that includes Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth. And ships such as Queen Mary 2 and Carnival Spirit will join the party too.

Mexican cruises: Mexico has cast a troubling shadow over cruises from the port of Los Angeles and elsewhere. Drug-cartel wars in border areas and the interior create the mistaken perception that ports along the Mexican Riviera also are riddled with violence -- one many travel agents say is unwarranted.

“My personal message is that Mexico is alive and well, and I encourage people to look into it,” McClure-Mysza said.

Still, the U.S. State Department’s travel warning for parts of Mexico is enough to scare off some. The resulting slump chased Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Lines from L.A. last year, and Disney just announced plans to follow suit at the end of this year.

Paul Motter of CruiseMates.com has a different take. He defends Mexico’s west coast as a cruise destination but thinks itineraries could use some tweaking.

“Mazatlan as a cruise port has very little to offer,” he said. “The port area is a very isolated and industrial place, and there’s no place to walk.” Spending two nights in Cabo San Lucas or Puerto Vallarta, he said, offers a better experience for cruisers who seek local culture.

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travel@latimes.com

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BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX

By the numbers

$15.5 billion -- Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports worldwide, estimated.

20.3 million annual passengers for 2012, up 5.6% over 2011

$34.07 billion -- Cruise revenue worldwide

Miami -- No. 1 cruise embarkation port

Nassau, Bahamas -- No. 1 port of call

$240 -- Projected average cruise revenue per passenger per day for 2012

Source: Cruise Market Watch/2012 Cruise Trends Forecast ( www.cruisemarketwatch.com)

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CRUISE SHIPS

Here’s a list of many of the lines that carry passenger traffic, along with a list of their vessels. Ships that are to have maiden voyages this year also are listed; check with the cruise line, though, because dates can change.

AIDA CRUISES

Ships: Each name preceded by and blended with AID: Aaura, Abella, Ablu, Acara, Adiva, Aluna, Amar (debuts in May), Asol, Avita.

Info: (011) 49-381-20-270707, www.aida.de.

AMA WATERWAYS

Ships: La Marguerite, Zambesi Queen. Each of the following names preceded by and blended with Ama: Bella, Cello, Certo (debuts in April), Dagio, Dante, Dolce, Legro, Lotus, Lyra, Katarina, Verde.

Info: (800) 626-0126, www.amawaterways.com.

AMERICAN CRUISE LINES

Ships: American Glory, Spirit and Star; Independence; Queen of the Mississippi (debuts in August); Queen of the West.

Info: (800) 814-6880, www.americancruiselines.com.

AMERICAN SAFARI CRUISES

Ships: Endeavour (debuts May 27), Explorer, Quest, Spirit.

Info: (888) 862-8881, www.innerseadiscoveries.com.

AQUA EXPEDITIONS

Ships: Aqua, Aria.

Info: (866) 603-3687, www.aquaexpeditions.com.

AVALON WATERWAYS

Ships: Kasr Ibrim, Mayfair, Royal Lotus, Santa Cruz, Victoria Anna and Victoria Jenna. Each of the following names preceded by Avalon: Affinity, Angkor, Creativity, Felicity, Imagery, Luminary, Panorama, Scenery, Tranquility, Tapestry, Vista and Visionary.

Info: (877) 797-8791, www.avalonwaterways.com.

AZAMARA CLUB CRUISES

Ships: Journey, Quest.

Info: (877) 999-9553, www.azamaracruises.com.

BLOUNT SMALL SHIP ADVENTURES

Ships: Grande Caribe, Grande Mariner.

Info: (800) 556-7450, www.blountsmallshipadventures.com.

CARNIVAL CRUISE LINES

Ships: Each name preceded by Carnival: Breeze (debuts June 3), Conquest, Destiny, Dream, Ecstasy, Elation, Fantasy, Fascination, Freedom, Glory, Imagination, Inspiration, Legend, Liberty, Magic, Miracle, Paradise, Pride, Sensation, Spirit, Splendor, Triumph, Valor, Victory.

Info: (800) 327-9501, www.carnival.com.

CELEBRITY CRUISES

Ships: Each name preceded by Celebrity: Century, Constellation, Eclipse, Equinox, Infinity, Millennium, Reflection (debuts in October), Silhouette, Solstice, Summit, Xpedition.

Info: (800) 437-3111, www.celebritycruises.com.

CLIPPER VACATIONS

Ships: Each name preceded by Victoria: Clipper, Clipper III, Clipper IV.

Info: (800) 888-2535, www.clippervacations.com.

CLUB MED CRUISES

Ships: Club Med 2

Info: (800) CLUB MED, www.clubmed.us.

COSTA CRUISES

Ships: Each name preceded by Costa: Atlantica, Classica, Deliziosa, Fascinosa (debuts in May), Favalosa, Fortuna, Luminosa, Magica, Mediterranea, Pacifica, neoRomantica (formerly Romantica, debuts in February), Serena, Victoria, Voyager.

Info: (800) 462-6782. costacruises.com.

CRYSTAL CRUISES

Ships: Crystal Serenity, Crystal Symphony.

Info: (888) 722-0021, www.crystalcruises.com.

CUNARD

Ships: Each name preceded by Queen: Elizabeth, Mary 2 and Victoria.

Info: (800) 528-6273, www.cunard.com.

DISNEY CRUISE LINE

Ships: Each name preceded by Disney: Dream, Fantasy, Magic, Wonder.

Info: (800) 951-3532, www.disneycruise.com.

FRENCH COUNTRY WATERWAYS

Ships: Adrienne, Horizon II, Nenuphar, Princess.

Info: (800) 222-1236, www.fcwl.com.

GALAPAGOS CRUISES

Ships: Motor sailers: Cachalote, Diamante, Sagitta, Samba. Catamarans: Journey I, Journey III, Seaman II. Ships: Eclipse, Galapagos Explorer II, Galapagos Legend, Santa Cruz. Yachts: Beluga, Coral I, Coral II, Floreana, Isabella II, La Pinta, Odyssey.

Info: (877) 385-1433, www.galapagos-inc.com.

GREAT LAKES CRUISE CO.

Ships: Canadian Empress, Grande Caribe, Grande Mariner, Yorktown.

Info: (888) 891-0203, www.greatlakescruising.com.

HAPAG-LLOYD CRUISES

Ships: Bremen, Columbus (final sailing: April 17-May 7), Columbus II (debuts in April and will replace the Columbus), Europa, Hanseatic.

Info: (800) 782-3924, www.hl-cruises.com.

HOLLAND AMERICA LINE

Ships: Amsterdam, Eurodam, Maasdam, Nieuw Amsterdam, Noordam, Oosterdam, Prinsendam, Rotterdam, Ryndam, Statendam, Veendam, Volendam, Westerdam, Zaandam, Zuiderdam.

Info: (800) 426-0327, www.hollandamerica.com.

HURTIGRUTEN

Ships: Finnmarken, Fram, Kong Harald, Lofoten, Midnatsol, Nordkapp, Nordnorge, Nordlys, Nordstjernen, Polarlys, Richard With, Trollfjord, Vesteralen.

Info: (800) 323-7436, www.hurtigruten.us.

INNERSEA DISCOVERIES

Ships: Wilderness Adventurer, Wilderness Discoverer, Wilderness Explorer (debuts May 19).

Info: (877) 901-1009, www.innerseadiscoveries.com.

LINDBLAD EXPEDITION

Ships: Delfin II, Jahan, Lord of the Glens, National Geographic Endeavour, National Geographic Explorer, National Geographic Islander, National Geographic Sea Bird, National Geographic Sea Lion, Oceanic Discoverer, Sea Cloud (refurbished for 2012).

Info: (800) 397-3348, www.expeditions.com.

MSC CRUISES

Ships: Armonia, Divina (debuts May 27), Fantasia, Lirica, Magnifica, Melody, Musica, Opera, Orchestra, Poesia, Sinfonia, Splendida.

Info: (877) 665-4655, www.msccruisesusa.com.

NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE

Ships: Each name preceded by Norwegian: Dawn, Epic, Gem, Jade, Jewel, Pearl, Pride of America, Sky, Spirit, Star, Sun.

Info: (800) 327-7030, www.ncl.com.

OCEANIA CRUISES

Ships: Insignia, Marina, Nautica, Regatta, Riviera (debuts April 24).

Info: (800) 531-5619, www.oceaniacruises.com.

ORION EXPEDITION CRUISES

Ships: Orion, Orion II.

Info: (877) ORION-US (674-6687), www.orionexpeditions.com.

P&O; CRUISES

Ships: Adonia, Arcadia, Aurora, Azura, Oceana, Oriana, Ventura.

Info: (877) 828-4728, www.poamericas.com.

PRINCESS CRUISES

Ships: (Each name is followed by Princess): Caribbean, Coral, Crown, Dawn, Diamond, Emerald, Golden, Grand, Island, Ocean, Pacific, Ruby, Sapphire, Sea, Star, Sun.

Info: (800) 774-6237, www.princess.com.

PULLMANTUR CRUISES

Ships: Bleu de France, Empress, Horizon, Ocean Dream, Sovereign, Zenith.

Info: 011-34-91-418-88-92, www.pullmantur.es/en/portada.html.

QUARK EXPEDITIONS

Ships: 50 Years of Victory, Akademik Sergey Vavilov, Clipper Adventurer, Kapitan Dranitsyn, Ocean Nova (part of fleet until March), Ocean Diamond, Sea Spirit.

Info: (800) 356-5699, www.quark expeditions.com.

REGENT SEVEN SEAS CRUISES

Ships: Each name preceded by Seven Seas: Mariner, Navigator, Voyager.

Info: (877) 505-5370, www.rssc.com.

ROYAL CARIBBEAN INTERNATIONAL

Ships: Each name followed by “of the Seas”: Adventure, Allure, Brilliance, Enchantment, Explorer, Freedom, Grandeur, Independence, Jewel, Legend, Liberty, Majesty, Mariner, Monarch, Navigator, Oasis, Radiance, Rhapsody, Serenade, Splendour, Vision, Voyager.

Info: (800) 327-6700, www.royalcaribbean.com.

SAGA CRUISES

Ships: Quest for Adventure, Saga Ruby, Saga Sapphire, Saga Pearl II.

Info: 011-44-0800 096 0079, www.saga.co.uk.

ST. LAWRENCE CRUISE LINES INC.

Ships: Canadian Empress.

Info: (800) 267-7868, www.stlawrencecruiselines.com.

SEABOURN CRUISE LINE

Ships: Legend, Odyssey, Pride, Quest, Spirit, Sojourn.

Info: (800) 929-9391, www.seabourn.com.

SEA CLOUD CRUISES

Ships: River Cloud II, Sea Cloud, Sea Cloud II.

Info: (201) 227-9404, www.seacloud.com.

SILVERSEA CRUISES

Ships: Each name preceded by Silver: Cloud, Explorer (formerly Prince Albert II), Shadow, Spirit, Whisper, Wind.

Info: (800) 722-9955, www.silversea.com.

STAR CLIPPERS

Ships: Royal Clipper, Star Clipper, Star Flyer.

Info: (800) 442-0551, www.starclippers.com.

STAR CRUISES

Ships: Star Pisces, SuperStar Aquarius, Libra and Virgo.

Info: (305) 436-4000, Ext. 1105 (through Norwegian Cruise Lines), www.starcruises.com.

TRAVEL DYNAMICS INTERNATIONAL

Ships: Callisto, Corinthian II, Yorktown.

Info: (800) 257-5767, www.traveldynamicsinternational.com.

UNIWORLD BOUTIQUE RIVER CRUISE COLLECTION

Ships: Antoinette and Douro Spirit; each of these names preceded by River: Ambassador, Baroness, Beatrice, Countess, Duchess, Empress, Princess, Queen, Royale, Saigon, Tosca, Victoria (debuts in May).

Info: (800) 733-7820, www.uniworld.com.

VICTORIA CRUISES

Ships: Each of these names preceded by Victoria: Anna, Empress (will be refurbished and renamed Grace in 2012), Jenna, Katarina, Lianna (refurbished, formerly the Queen), Prince, Selina (refurbished, formerly the Star).

Info: (800) 348-8084, www.victoriacruises.com.

VIKING RIVER CRUISES

Ships: Each of these names preceded by Viking: Danube, Emerald, Europe, Fontane, Helgi (refurbished, formerly Surkov), Helvetia, Ingvar (refurbished, formerly Pakhomov), Legend, Lomonosov, Neptune, Prestige, Pride, Primadonna, Rurik (refurbished, formerly Peterhof), Schumann, Sky, Spirit, Sun, Truvor (refurbished, formerly Kirov). Viking longships: Aegir (debuts in August), Embla (debuts in July), Freya (debuts in March), Idun (debuts in March), Njord (debuts in March), Odin (debuts in March). Egypt fleet: Prince Abbas, Royal Lily, Royal Lotus; Mekong ship: Tonle.

Info: (877) 668-4546, www.vikingrivercruises.com.

VOYAGES OF DISCOVERY

Ships: Discovery, Voyager (debuts Nov. 16).

Info: (866) 623-2689, www.voyagesofdiscovery.com.

WINDSTAR CRUISES

Ships: Each name preceded by Wind: Spirit, Star, Surf.

Info: (800) 258-7245, www.windstarcruises.com.

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travel@latimes.com