‘Transformers: Age of Extinction’ aims for $100-million mark

This summer box-office season has a problem that the movie industry is looking to Michael Bay and Optimus Prime to solve.

So far this year, no movie has broken the $100-million mark in its first three days, despite big results from “The Amazing Spider-Man 2,” “Godzilla” and “X-Men: Days of Future Past.” The blockbuster to come closest was “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” which soared to $95 million in its opening weekend in the spring.

But that could change if “Transformers: Age of Extinction” meets analysts’ high expectations.

Bay’s fourth “Transformers” movie, from Paramount Pictures, is expected to gross at least $100 million in ticket sales from the United States and Canada through Sunday, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys. It could even exceed $110 million, some say.

Paramount is being a bit more conservative, putting projections at $90 million to $100 million for the film, which cost $210 million to make.

That result should help pad a summer season that has so far proved lackluster compared with last year.

Movies have grossed about $1.8 billion in the U.S. and Canada this summer as of Tuesday according to Rentrak. That’s down 15% from the same stretch of time last year.

But the 2013 season started with a true whopper.

“Iron Man 3” passed $174 million in its first weekend alone in May 2013 and went on to top $409 million in domestic box-office cash. The Marvel movie tapped out at $1.21 billion worldwide. In fact, at this point in 2013 two movies, “Iron Man 3” and “Man of Steel,” had opened with grosses of more than $100 million.

This summer’s most robust openings have also been followed by steep drops.

The second weekends for “Spider-Man,” “Godzilla” and “X-Men” were more than 60% lower than their first three days of box-office tallies. That has helped put weight on the year’s total returns.

The 2014 year-to-date box-office is slightly lower than the strong results of 2013. Rentrak puts ticket sales at just shy of $5 billion as of Tuesday, whereas 2013 had already surpassed that milestone.

Earlier this year, the box-office was up thanks to the powerful pull of movies such as “The Lego Movie,” “Captain America” and even “Frozen,” which debuted in November. That lead has now disappeared.

“Transformers” is poised to enter the marketplace in a crushing way, however.

Bay introduced a new cast of humans for the fourth installment, replacing Shia LeBeouf and his cohorts from the earlier pictures.

Star Mark Wahlberg portrays a tough mechanic with a teenage daughter played by relative newcomer Nicola Peltz, who join the good robots in their battle to save the world. The cast also includes Stanley Tucci, Kelsey Grammer and Jack Reynor.

To make the leap past $100 million, “Transformers 4” would have to outperform the 2011 interation “Transformers: Dark of the Moon,” which earned $97.9 million in its first three days on its way to a domestic total of $352.4 million. “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen,” in 2009, posted the franchise’s biggest opening, with nearly $109 million. It eventually took in $402 million at home.

The U.S. and Canadian sales will be only a fraction of the story. “Dark of the Moon” brought in nearly 70% of its total $1.12-billion worldwide haul from overseas.

“Age of Extinction” is banking heavily on markets outside North America, particularly in China. The movie opens in multiple key countries internationally this weekend, including China, Korea and Russia.
Follow Ryan Faughnder on Twitter: @rfaughnder