Poll Analysis: Front-Runners Remain Front-Runners in Iowa

     On January 24, Iowa takes the nation's political spotlight as it launches the first millennium presidential election with its Democratic and Republican caucuses. The latest Los Angeles Times poll found that Iowa caucus voters are solidly supporting each party's front-runners, with Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore leading each of their respective caucuses.
     In the general election in November, Iowa caucus voters say they believe that George W. Bush will win the election by 2:1 over Al Gore, though 28% believe that Gore has the clearest vision to lead the country into the new century (20% say Bush).

     Caucus match-ups
     Although he fails to attract a majority of voters, in a six-way race, George Bush wins the Republican caucus by nearly 20 percentage points to his closest runner-up Steve Forbes. By 43% to 25%, Iowans planning on voting in the Republican caucus say they plan to vote for Bush. Perhaps the most surprising result in Iowa is the third place winner, Alan Keyes, who attracted a solid 10% of Iowa voters. Without campaigning in the state, John McCain gets 8% of the Republican Caucus voters. Gary Bauer gets 7%, and Orrin Hatch gets just 1% of the vote.
     In contrast, the Vice President is winning nearly six out of 10 Democratic caucus voters, with 58% saying they plan to vote for Gore, and 35% saying they plan on voting for Bradley.
     However, Gore's lead is particularly significant as just under a quarter of Democratic primary voters believe there are real differences between their candidates (44% of Republican primary voters think that there are real differences between their candidates).
     At the time of the poll, only 6% of Republican and 7% of Democratic caucus voters remained undecided.

     The Democratic caucus
     Gore has a variety of elements working in his favor, one of which is voter confidence in his likelihood to win in November. Gore supporters are more confident that he will actually win both the Iowa Caucus and the November general election than are Bradley voters:
     *95% of Gore voters believe he will win the Iowa caucus, and 69% believe he will win in November.
     *58% of Bradley voters think that he will win the Iowa caucus, and only 26% believe he will win in November.
     Moreover, while 16% of Bradley voters believe Gore will win the election in November, just 1% of Gore voters say Bradley will win.
     Voters' views on health care are also working to Gore's benefit: 23% of Democratic caucus goers list health care as an issue they would like to see discussed (second only to education at 25%), and 56% of Democratic caucus voters prefer Gore's health care proposal to Bradley's. In fact, even 18% of Bradley voters say they prefer Gore's health plan to Bradley's (4% of Gore's supporters like Bradley's plan better).
     Also in Gore's favor is that his support is strongest with the traditional Democratic base: women, lower-income voters and union members. 64% of women are planning on voting for Gore in the caucus on Monday (29% say Bradley).
     *64% of union members support Gore (28% Bradley).
     *63% of those making less than $40,000 per year support Gore (30% Bradley).
     In contrast, Bradley's two core constituencies are men and those who are college educated or better. 41% of male Democratic caucus goers are planning to vote for Bradley (51% say they will vote for Gore). And:
     *47% of those with a college education or better plan on voting for Bradley (45% Gore).
     However, Gore's vote is more solid than Bradley's:
     *49% of Gore voters are very strong in their commitment to him.
     *31% of Bradley voters are very strong in their commitment.
     However, this race is by no means a shoo-in for Gore, as he faces some obstacles to victory, the most daunting of which is his association with President Clinton.
     Although 88% of Democratic voters approve of the job Clinton is doing as President, and 89% like his policies, Gore is hurt by his ties with Clinton. 76% of Democratic voters believe that Gore will follow the policies of the Clinton administration:
     *72% of those who like Clinton are voting for Gore (22% Bradley).
     *In contrast, 44% of those who dislike Clinton plan to vote for Gore (48% Bradley).Additionally:
     *62% of those who approve of the job Clinton has been doing plan to vote for Gore (31% Bradley).
     *Only 28% of those who disapprove of the job Clinton has been doing plan to vote for Gore (62% Bradley).
     And while "honesty and integrity" comes up as the number one attribute which attracted voters to their candidate, only 17% say this description applies to Gore. In comparison:
     *30% say "honesty and integrity" describes Bush.
     *29% say it describes Forbes.
     *28% say it describes Bradley.
     Gore's close association with Clinton could be a contributing factor to this discrepancy in the "honesty" perception.

     The Republican caucus
     Nine out of ten Bush voters support him very or somewhat strongly (38% very), and two thirds say they are certain to vote for him (33% say they might vote for someone else). Forbes' vote is slightly softer than Bush's, with 88% of Forbes voters saying they support him very or somewhat strongly, with 36% saying they support him very strongly. Nearly two thirds (64%) say they are certain to vote for him on Monday.
     The Republican race is less divisive than the Democratic one, and neither gender nor political ideology is driving or segregating the Republican candidates this year. However, Bush does do slightly better among men (45%ˆ25% for Forbes) than women (40% to 25%) and among those who self-identify as moderates or conservatives:
     *43% of conservatives are supporting Bush (25% are supporting Forbes).
     *41% of moderates (27% Forbes).
     *34% of liberals (26% Forbes).
     Forbes draws his biggest support from independent voters who plan to vote in the Republican caucus.
     According to Iowa caucus voters, this is an election where personal traits are more of a lure than the issues, with nearly three quarters of caucus voters saying that they were supporting their candidate because of a personal trait, rather than his stance on an issue. Nearly half of all voters who say they are supporting their candidate because of a personal trait are Bush supporters, while only one in five of these voters supports Forbes . In contrast, a third of those who are voting for their candidate because of his stand on the issues are supporting Bush, while 40% of this group of voters plan to vote for Forbes. The issue of taxes in particular is driving Forbes' vote, with 52% of voters saying this issue is what attracted them to him.
     In tandem with the importance of a candidate's personal traits is the importance Iowa voters place on religion. 40% of Iowa caucus voters think that a candidate's religious beliefs and his relationship with Jesus Christ should be an important part of his campaign. This belief is particularly strong among Republicans, 61% of whom believe religion should play an important part of a candidate's campaign, and is strongest with those planning to vote for Keyes and Bauer.
     Not surprisingly, 70% of conservative Republicans believe that religion should play a part in a candidate's campaign.
     The debates and candidate perceptions
     While both Republican and Democratic caucus-goers have been following the debates closely, almost no one changed their mind as for whom they planned to vote because of what they saw, read or heard.
     Keyes' perception in the debates was perhaps the most startling finding of the poll, aside from his unexpected third-place finish. Over a quarter (26%) of Republican caucus goers listed Keyes as coming across as most knowledgeable in the debates, four points ahead of Bush (22%) and nine points ahead of Forbes (17%).

     Mood of the electorate
     Despite a predicted low turnout in the caucuses, 92% of Iowa voters interviewed said they were very or somewhat interested in following the political campaigns this year, including 45% who said they were very interested.
     Like voters elsewhere, Iowa caucus voters are concerned with education and taxes, though the priority they give to those issues varies by party. Among Democrats, the top three issues were education, health care, and Social Security; among Republicans the top issues were taxes, education and abortion.
     When asked specifically about campaign finance reform, 73% said it was an important issue.
     However, voters did not articulate campaign finance reform as an issue they wanted their candidates to discuss, and only 4% of those saying campaign finance reform was important think it should be the most important issue of the race.
     Additionally, Iowa caucus voters seem happy with our current tax system, with just over a third saying they would be more likely to support a candidate who favored imposing a flat tax (though 47% of Republicans would be more likely to do so). When asked if they would rather use the budget surplus to go toward strengthening Social Security and Medicare and a small tax cut or whether they would prefer to see most of the surplus go toward a tax cut:
     *73% prefer a small tax cut with most of the money going toward strengthening Social Security and Medicare.
     *Only 20% would like to see most of the surplus go toward a tax cut.
     This finding also holds true among Republicans, 56% of whom opt for a small tax cut with most of the money going toward strengthening Social Security and Medicare (with 33% favoring using most of the surplus for a tax cut). Even 58% of Bush voters want to see the surplus go toward strengthening Social Security and Medicare.
     This satisfaction with the status quo is not surprising given voters' confidence in both the national and statewide economy:
     *93% think that the nation's economy is doing well.
     *78% believe Iowa's economy is doing well.
     *87% say their own personal finances are secure.

     Other issues: Gun control and agriculture
     Gun control is an issue important to Iowans, with nearly half of all caucus voters saying that they think gun control laws should be more strict than they are now (only 10% say less strict). Additionally, 70% of voters support the registration of all handguns, and more than four out of ten would be more likely to vote for a candidate who shared this support (22% would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the registration of all handguns, 31% said it would have no effect on their vote).
     Iowa caucus voters are divided as to whether Democrats (40%) or Republicans (41%) would do better on farm issues, but more specifically they believe Gore to be the most qualified to handle farm problems, with 28% saying he would do the best job of handling farm problems (20% say Bush).
     However, agricultural issues are not a driver in this election, as a majority (51%) say that a candidate's opposition to federal subsidies for ethanol would have no effect on their vote, and only 8% cited agricultural issues as ones they would like to hear discussed.

     How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,128 Iowa likely caucus goers, including 571 who are likely to attend the Democratic caucus and 557 who are likely to attend the Republican caucus. Likely participants are those who said they are "pretty sure they will vote" or "they know they will vote" in their caucuses on January 24. The poll was conducted by telephone January 12 though 16. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all possible exchanges. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for both Democratic and Republican caucus goers it is 4 points. For certain other subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.