Poll Analysis: The Mayor’s Race: Too Early to Decide

     The latest Los Angeles Times poll shows that, at this point, no mayoral candidate has succeeded in capturing the attention of Los Angeles registered voters. With the primary election a year away, most Los Angeles city registered voters have not heard enough about any of the candidates to form strong opinions, leaving the race wide open.
     Though the economy remains strong˜as do perceptions of personal financial situations˜Los Angelenos do not seem overwhelmingly satisfied with life in their city, with more city residents saying things in Los Angeles are heading off on the wrong track as going in the right direction, and with equal numbers saying the quality of life in their communities is better as those who say it is worse.

The Mayor's Race      Los Angeles city registered voters give Richard Riordan high marks, with more than six in 10 (61%) saying they approve of the job he has been doing as mayor. Though term limits prevent him from running for a third term, 14% of registered voters volunteered that Riordan would be their choice if the 2001 mayoral election were held today. No other candidate comes even close to getting this percentage of voters on an unaided basis, meaning as a volunteered response without hearing the names of the candidates first.
     Not surprisingly, then, all the potential candidates' awareness numbers are fairly low at this point in time, with highest levels of familiarity with Zev Yaroslavsky (43%), James Hahn (41%) and Joel Wachs (39%). Despite her run for governor, just 30% of registered voters in the city of L.A. have heard enough about Kathleen Connell to form an opinion.
     When read a list of seven candidates who have declared their candidacy or who are considering running, and then asked to select a candidate, voters choose City Attorney Jim Hahn, giving him 16% of their vote. In a statistical dead heat, they give Joel Wachs 14% of their vote.

     Antonio Villaraigosa gets 11% of the vote
     Xavier Becerra gets 10%
     Kathleen Connell and Zev Yaroslavsky both get 9% of the vote

     Steve Soboroff, the remaining candidate tested in the poll, gets just 1% of the vote.
     In combining first and second choices for mayor, the results remain the same, with 29% of voters saying Hahn would be their first or second choice for mayor, and 27% saying Wachs would be their first or second choice. Among combined first and second choices, Villaraigosa widens his edge over Becerra, garnering 22% of the vote, as compared to 17% for Becerra.
     Hahn's voters overwhelmingly choose Wachs as their second choice (at 36%, with 13% choosing Yaroslavsky). On the other hand, Wachs' voters choose Yaroslavsky as their second choice (33%), with just 4% opting for Hahn as their second choice.
     Similarly, while 46% of Becerra voters choose Villaraigosa as their next choice (and 49% choose Hahn), just 26% of Villaraigosa voters would vote for Becerra as their second choice.
     Both Villaraigosa and Becerra are popular with Latino voters (who constitute 23% of the city's registered voters, according to the poll), though Villaraigosa maintains a stronger lead over Becerra among Latinos than he does among voters overall:

     33% of Latino voters would vote for Villaraigosa
     22% for Becerra
      Just 6% of Latino voters would vote for Hahn, and 3% would vote for Wachs.

     These numbers indicate that Latinos are currently splitting their vote between Villaraigosa and Becerra, the two Latino candidates, news that could be trouble for either candidate, as they each seek to secure the Latino vote.
     Additionally, despite their approval of Riordan, 59% of city residents (as well as 61% of registered voters) would like to see the next mayor of L.A. point the city in a new direction, with 30% of both groups saying they would like to see Los Angeles' next mayor change things a lot rather than simply change a few specific things. Moreover, two-thirds of voters say that Riordan's endorsement of a candidate would have no effect on their vote.
     L.A. city voters want their next mayor to be someone honest (43%) and someone who cares (19%). These priorities hold true among all races, but Latino voters also place importance on electing someone from their own ethnic group (22%) and on electing someone who is tough (18%).

How the Poll Was Conducted      The Times Poll contacted 1,219 residents of the city of Los Angeles by telephone March 29-April 5, 2000, including 896 registered voters. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in Los Angeles city. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for city residents and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
     For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Asians were interviewed as part of the overall sample, but there were not enough registered voters to break out as a separate subgroup.