Poll Analysis: Americans Back Air Strikes Against Iraq, Approve Clinton’s SOTU Proposals

Americans would support a decision to launch air strikes against Iraq if the Iraqis do not cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors. Most also voice support for the domestic policy initiatives outlined in President Clinton's State of the Union address Tuesday.
     Nearly 3 out of 4 Americans support launching an air strike against Iraq if Iraq does not cooperate fully with United Nations weapons inspectors, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. Americans also dismiss the suggestion that President Clinton is proposing an air strike to divert attention from the sexual allegations against him. Furthermore, Americans show substantial support for a number of the domestic policy proposals Clinton addressed in his State of the Union speech.
     The Los Angeles Times poll was conducted by telephone January 29 to 31 among 1,314 adults nationwide. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups within the sample may be higher.
     
Air Strikes Against Iraq
Americans strongly approve of using force against Iraq, with 71% saying they approve of launching an air strike if Saddam Hussein does not cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors. In fact, half of all respondents said they strongly approve of launching an air strike. Yet Americans want to go after more than just Hussein's cooperation. Sixty-eight percent of Americans said an air strike should also be designed to remove Hussein from power. Just 24% believe the purpose of an air strike should be only to force Iraq's cooperation.
     Independents (66%) and liberals (63%) are slightly less likely to approve of launching an air strike. However, support is generally high regardless of party or ideology. There is also no significant difference in support by age. Women are slightly less likely than men to support the air strike (66% to 77%), and with a lower intensity of support.
     The vast majority of Americans also believe that President Clinton's motive for launching an air strike is legitimate. Seventy-seven percent believe he is proposing an air strike in response to Iraq's unwillingness to cooperate with the U.N. rather than to divert attention from the allegations surrounding him. Just 16% believe his real motive is to deflect attention from himself. Eighteen to 29 year old Americans (30%), conservatives (24%) and Republicans (22%) are more likely to think Clinton is trying to divert attention from his own problems. Furthermore, respondents who believe Clinton had an affair with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky are more likely to be cynical about his motivation, with 26% of this group saying Clinton is considering an attack on Iraq to divert attention from himself. Just 6% of those who think the allegations against him are untrue feel this way.
     
Balancing the Budget
In his State of the Union address, President Clinton announced that he would submit a balanced budget to Congress and implored members of Congress to work with him in passing a balanced budget by year end. However, Americans are skeptical about the federal government's ability to pass a balanced budget. When survey respondents were asked if they believe Congress and the President would be able to pass a balanced budget by the end of the year deadline, 51% said no. Just 35% believe Congress and President Clinton will accomplish this goal (14% are uncertain). Respondents who watched or listened to Clinton's State of the Union address are more likely than those who read or heard about it later to believe a balanced budget will be passed (41% to 26%). This result may indicate that actually watching or listening to Bill Clinton is persuasive. However, it is just as possible that respondents who read or heard about the speech later also heard commentary from experts that made them less likely to believe the budget could be balanced.
     Democrats are divided on whether a balanced budget will be passed, with 42% saying Congress will pass a balanced budget and 43% saying Congress will not. Independents and Republicans are slightly more likely to believe a balanced budget will not be passed, with 52% of independents and 59% of Republicans giving this response. However, approximately one-third of independents and Republicans are optimistic about passing a balanced budget.
     While older Americans are more divided on whether a balanced budget will be passed, younger Americans are more likely to say it will not, with 53% of 18-29 year olds and 60% of 30-44 year olds giving this response compared with 47% of 45-64 year olds and 40% of those over 65 years of age. Older Americans were also more likely to be uncertain.
     
How to Use a Budget Surplus
Clinton also suggested that there may be a budget surplus after the budget is balanced. Republican leaders proposed devoting up to one-third of any projected budget surplus to tax cuts. However, in his speech Clinton said he does not want to use surplus money for broad tax cuts until the Social Security problems are resolved. When survey respondents were asked which proposal they preferred, that of Bill Clinton or that of Republican leaders, 60% chose Clinton's proposal -- 28% preferred that of Republican leaders.
     Even half (49%) of conservatives and two-thirds of moderates said they prefer Clinton's proposal. Furthermore, while Republican men choose the Republican leadership's proposal over Bill Clinton's by almost 2 to 1, Republican women are nearly divided in their preference between the two proposals.
     Support for Clinton's proposal over that of Republican leaders is stronger among older Americans as well. Sixty-six percent of Americans 45 years of age or older said they prefer Clinton's proposal, compared with 58% of 18-29 year olds and 55% of 30-44 year olds. This result may indicate that some younger Americans -- a group more likely to be paying income taxes and other taxes at higher rates -- are looking for relief from their tax burden rather than thinking about their retirement many years ahead.
     Further indicating the concern about protecting Social Security, the highest proportion of survey respondents said they would prefer any surplus money in the budget to be used to strengthen the Social Security fund (37%) when given a choice of five options. The second most mentioned response was to use the money to increase funding to education (28%). Another 17% said they would prefer using any surplus to reduce the national debt and 12% said they would use the surplus to reduce taxes.
     Potentially demonstrating the influence of Clinton's speech, 44% of respondents who watched or listened to the speech said they would want to use a budget surplus to strengthen Social Security, as Clinton had proposed. Just 32% of those who read or heard about the speech later gave this response.
     There are notable differences in opinions on how to use a budget surplus by partisanship and ideology. Democrats are the least likely to say they want to use the surplus to reduce taxes (8%) or the national debt (9%). Republicans are the most likely to name these options, with 16% choosing to reduce taxes and 26% choosing to reduce the national debt. Republicans are less likely to name strengthening Social Security (27%) as their preferred use of a surplus than are Democrats (46%) and independents (35%). Democrats are also slightly more likely to want to devote the extra funds to education (33%) than independents (27%) and Republicans (24%).
     The vast majority of liberals prefer two options for using surplus funds: 41% would prefer to use any surplus for strengthening Social Security and 40% would like to increase funding to education. A high proportion of moderates would also choose to strengthen Social Security (43%). Like Republicans, conservatives are more divided, with 29% preferring to strengthen Social Security, 24% wanting to reduce the national debt, 24% wanting to increase funding to education, and 19% saying they would like to reduce taxes.
     Demonstrating their immediate self-interest, younger Americans are more inclined to want the surplus to be used for funding education than older Americans, dropping from 49% among 18-29 year olds to 10% among those over the age of 65. Older Americans are more inclined to want to dedicate the funds to strengthening Social Security, with 55% of residents over 65 giving this response compared with 19% of those between 18 and 29 years of age.
     
Opinions About the Strength of the Social Security Fund
Fueling the concern about Social Security may be the belief that there will not be enough money in the Social Security system for Americans to receive their full benefit -- or any benefit at all -- when they retire. Just 21% of respondents said they believe they will receive their full retirement benefit from Social Security. Thirty-six percent believe they will receive only part of their benefit and 26% believe they will not receive any of their benefit from Social Security (14% were already retired). The proportion believing they will receive their full benefit is actually up from last year at this time. In a Times poll conducted at the beginning of February 1997, only 13% believed they would receive their full benefit when they retired -- 8% lower than today's finding. Clinton's outspoken dedication to strengthening the Social Security system in his State of the Union address may be behind this slightly increased optimism.
     Younger Americans are less likely to believe they will see any of their Social Security benefit when they reach retirement age, with 40% of 18-29 year olds and 38% of 30-44 year olds giving this response. In fact, 84% of 18-29 year olds and 85% of 30-44 year olds believe they will not receive Social Security or will receive only a portion of their benefit when they retire. Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to believe they will not see any of their Social Security benefit when they retire (38% to 19%). This finding is particularly strong among Republican men, with 43% believing there will be no money left in the Social Security system when they reach retirement age.
     
Other Clinton Proposals
Clinton made a number of other proposals in his State of the Union address -- all to great applause. The high level of support for Clinton's State of the Union address proposals is not surprising given that they were probably well-tested by his own pollsters, were generally not controversial and were not overly partisan.* Eighty-eight percent of respondents support his proposal for a consumer bill of rights for HMO members that would include a guarantee that medical decisions are made by doctors and that medical records will be kept confidential (60% strongly support this proposal). Just 9% oppose the proposal.
     * Eighty-two percent support Clinton's proposal to dedicate 100% of any budget surplus to strengthening the Social Security fund, with 58% strongly supporting this proposal. Sixteen percent oppose the proposal.* Eighty-two percent of respondents also support Clinton's proposal for a series of tax breaks, grants, and subsidies to make child care more affordable for low-income families (53% strongly support this proposal). Sixteen percent oppose this proposal.
     * Seventy-nine percent support Clinton's proposal to increase funding to education, with a focus on reducing class sizes in the first through third grades and building more schools (59% strongly support this proposal). Eighteen percent oppose the proposal.
     * Seventy-eight percent support increasing the minimum wage (although Clinton did not mention the amount), with 55% strongly supporting this proposal. Twenty percent opposed it.
     * The least popular proposal, increasing the tax on cigarettes to help reduce teenage smoking, is supported by 71% of respondents (59% strongly). Twenty-seven percent oppose it (19% strongly opposing it).Nearly every proposal received somewhat more support from women than men. Support also generally increases as one moves from right to left on the political spectrum. Democrats are generally more supportive of each proposal than Republicans. Liberals and moderates are generally more supportive of each proposal than conservatives. Republican women show a slightly greater level of support for each proposal than Republican men. Clinton's proposal for an HMO bill of rights was the one proposal that resonated in near equal proportions regardless of gender, party or ideology. Younger Americans are more likely to support two of Clinton's proposals: providing tax breaks, grants, and subsidies to make child care more affordable to low-income families, and increasing funding to education.Congress' Job Rating
     The strong economy and generally positive mood of the country have bolstered opinions toward Congress. Congress' job rating has increased 7 points from five months ago. Today 53% of respondents say they approve of the job being done by Congress. In September 1997, Congress received a positive job rating from 46% of Americans.
     Despite Republican party control of Congress, there is very little difference in Congress' approval rating by party. Fifty-one percent of Democrats, 53% of independents and 59% of Republicans (68% of Republican women) gave Congress a favorable review. Women are more likely than men to give Congress a positive rating (59% to 47%). Five months ago there was little difference by gender.