Poll Analysis: California Governor’s Race Up For Grabs

With just over seven weeks to go before the June 2 California primary election, the governor's race is wide open, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. This is the first time Californians will go to the polls to vote in a "blanket" primary, the result of a ballot measure that was approved in 1996. Anyone who is registered to vote in any party, or who has registered to vote as an independent or decline-to-state, may vote for any candidate on the list regardless of the candidate's party affiliation. The candidate from each party who receives the highest number of votes will go on to represent his or her party in the November general election.

The Primary Election Horserace
     Among registered voters, Attorney General Dan Lungren, the only serious Republican contender, receives 24% of the vote, while the Democrat nominees are bunched together -- businessman Al Checchi receives 23%, Lt. Governor Gray Davis gets 13%, and Torrance Representative Jane Harman receives 19%.
     When a likely voter model is introduced, Lungren attracts 28% of the voters and Harman leads the Democrats slightly with 24% of the vote, with Checchi at 22%, and Davis at 13%. There is clearly no front runner. When asked if the voters would definitely vote for their candidate or whether they still have reservations, most of the voters say they are still shopping around. The certainty of vote is soft. Lungren voters, however, are more solid than the backers of the Democratic candidates. Fifty-two percent of Lungren voters say they will definitely vote for him, while only 32% of Checchi voters, 34% of Davis voters and 27% of Harman voters are certain about their candidate.
     * Among Democrats: Checchi has a small lead over Harman, 28%- 26%, with Davis at 20%. Just 6% would vote for Lungren.
     * Among Republicans: 51% would vote for Lungren, with 16% voting for Checchi, 9% Harman and 6% for Davis.
     * Among independents: 29% would vote for Checchi, 22% for Harman, 13% for Lungren and 7% for Davis.
     Checchi, who has been courting the Latino vote, does well with this group at 38%. He also receives 20% from white voters and 37% from black voters. Lungren receives 28% of white voters, 6% of black voters and 14% of Latino voters. Davis receives 12% of white voters, 22% of black voters and 9% of Latino voters. And Harman gets 19% of white voters, 21% of black voters and 15% of Latino voters.
     Lungren, who faces no serious opposition as a Republican candidate, has some serious catching up to do if he wants to win the election in November. He is not getting strong support from his own party. Nearly a third of his own party has defected to one of the Democratic challengers, while only 6% of the Democrats crossed over to the Republican candidate. And still another unknown factor in this free-for-all blanket primary are the independent or decline-to-state voters. They will play an important part in this election as swing voters. This group is more inclined to vote for a Democratic candidate over the Republican Lungren -- almost 3 out of 5 independents are supporting Democratic candidates. Also in the rest of Southern California (excluding Los Angeles County), which includes Orange County and San Diego, 27% of the registered voters say they will vote for Lungren, 17% for Checchi, 12% for Davis and 16% for Harman. Conventional wisdom is that if a Republican doesn't win overwhelmingly in Orange County, he or she won't win in the state. The base in Orange County is too small to break out, but Lungren is not doing well there (he barely beats Checchi in a November head-to-head and is under 50% in the primary race).
     Checchi, the mega-millionaire, has been airing television commercials since mid November (without any competition from other candidates for several months) and it has helped him increase his name recognition dramatically. In a Times poll taken in October 1997, 84% of the electorate hadn't a clue who he was. In this current poll only 26% say they haven't heard enough about him to say (compared to 31% for Davis, 36% for Harman, and 29% for Lungren). Two-thirds of the electorate have seen Checchi commercials and like what they see. About half (49%) of those who have a more favorable opinion of Checchi because they saw his commercials say they will vote for the businessman in June. He is positioning himself to appeal to a broader base than just his Democratic core and it is working. For instance, 28% of the Democratic voters say they will vote for Checchi, but so will 29% of the independent voters and 16% of the Republican voters. Twenty-seven percent of liberals and 21% of moderates say they will vote for Checchi, as well as 22% of conservatives.
     Harman, another multi-millionaire, who got into the campaign late after U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein decided not to run for governor, started airing commercials a few weeks ago. About half of the electorate has seen her commercials and she, too, is getting a positive bounce. Forty-five percent of those who have a more favorable opinion of Harman because they saw her ads say they will vote for the congresswoman in June. Twenty-six percent of Democratic voters say they will vote for her, as will 22% of independent voters and 9% of Republican voters. She receives 30% of the liberal vote, 18% of the moderates and 11% of the conservatives.
     Lungren and Davis do not have the option of pumping millions of their own dollars into their campaigns as Checchi and Harman do, and have not begun airing television ads.
     Davis, a veteran elected official who has been in state office for over twenty years and has been promoting himself for governor for the last three years, has a lot of catching up to do. His numbers reflect a campaign that has not gone anywhere. He is lagging behind, with 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for him and with virtually the same share of likely voters. He gets 6% of the Republican crossover and just 7% of the independents.
     Second choice: If voters had a second choice for governor, about half of Lungren's supporters would vote for Checchi and 27% for Davis; 32% of Checchi's voters would vote for Harman, while 28% mention Davis and 21% say Lungren; 38% of Davis' voters say they would vote for Harman, 25% for Checchi, and 18% for Lungren; and 46% of Harman's voters would vote for Davis, while 29% for Checchi and 11% for Lungren.

Favorability Ratings
     Checchi and Davis both have similar positive favorability ratings among voters -- 49%-22% for Checchi, with 29% not aware/no opinion, and 51%-14% for Davis with 35% not aware/no opinion. Lungren and Harman both have similar favorability ratings -- 45%-22% for Lungren with 33% not aware/no opinion and 42%-19% with 39% not aware/no opinion for Harman.
     Checchi: Half of registered independents have a favorable impression of the businessman -- the same impression of him as his own base of Democrats. Also almost half of Republicans have a positive impression of Checchi. Democratic men are not as enamored of Checchi as are their women counterparts (45%-28% Democratic men, 54%-24% Democratic women). Conservative Republicans (53%-16%) like him more than moderate Republicans (44%-16%).
     Whites (51%), blacks (45%) and Latinos (48%) have favorable impressions of him.
     Davis: More Democrats have a positive impression of Davis than they do of Checchi and Harman. Fifty-eight percent of Democrats have a favorable impression of him, 11% unfavorable. Many independents are not aware of the lieutenant governor, but 43% have a positive opinion of him and 11% unfavorable. A plurality of Republicans (45%) have a favorable impression, 17% unfavorable. More than half (52%) of those voters with a high school diploma have a favorable impression of the lieutenant governor, as do 49% with some college and 54% with a college degree or more. Forty percent of those with less than a high school degree have a positive opinion of Davis. Fifty percent of whites and 61% of blacks have positive opinions about Davis, with 40% of Latinos also having a favorable impression of him (53% of Latinos have not heard of him or are undecided).
     Harman: More than half (51%) of Democrats have a favorable impression of Harman, 14% unfavorable. Although 47% of independents haven't heard enough about her to comment, 40% had a positive opinion of the congresswoman, 13% negative. Thirty-one percent of Republicans have a favorable impression, 27% unfavorable with 42% not sufficiently aware of her to have an opinion. She does well among liberals (53%-11%), modestly among moderates (41%-18%) and poorly among conservatives (35%-27%). There is no gender gap; men view her favorably by 42%-21%, women by 42%-18%.
     Lungren: More than three of five Republicans (63%) have a favorable impression of Lungren, 11% unfavorable. Democrats are virtually divided at 32% favorable and 29% unfavorable and more than two of five (44%) independents have a favorable impression of the attorney general with 18% unfavorable. Sixty-two percent of conservatives also have a positive opinion of him. Nearly half of whites have a favorable opinion of him, but majorities of blacks and Latinos haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Head-to-Head in November
     Lungren would be in serious trouble if the November election were being held today. He was beaten by each of the three Democratic hopefuls:
     * Checchi receives 47% of the vote, Lungren 37% with 14% undecided.
     * Davis receives 48% of the vote, Lungren 36% with 15% undecided.
     * Harman receives 44% of the vote, Lungren 39% with 17% undecided.

Checchi vs Lungren:
     * Among Democrats, 66% Checchi, 20% Lungren
     * Among independents, 48% Checchi, 24% Lungren
     * Among Republicans, 21% Checchi, 63% Lungren

Davis vs Lungren:
     * Among Democrats, 74% Davis, 13% Lungren
     * Among independents, 47% Davis, 24% Lungren
     * Among Republicans, 14% Davis, 70% Lungren

Harman vs Lungren:
     * Among Democrats, 66% Harman, 17% Lungren
     * Among independents, 33% Harman, 31% Lungren
     * Among Republicans, 17% Harman, 70% Lungren