Poll Analysis: Boxer Does Well Against Her Relatively Unknown Republican Challengers

On the strength of her incumbency and the relative anonymity of the Republican challengers, U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer holds a commanding lead in her race for reelection. Among registered voters, Boxer, the Democrat running for her second US Senate term, receives 42% of the vote.
     Among Republicans, car alarm magnate Darrell Issa, gets 14% of the vote, followed by state Treasurer Matt Fong with 11% and northern California Congressman Frank Riggs at 6%. (Riggs dropped out of the race shortly before polling was completed.) The vote changes slightly among likely voters with Issa increasing his share of voters to 20%, and Fong and Riggs virtually remaining the same, 12% and 7%, respectively. Boxer was the same with 42%.
     
June Primary: U.S. Senate Horserace
For the first time independent or decline-to-state voters will be allowed to vote for elected offices in the "blanket" primary this June which was approved by voters in 1996. Besides independents, voters registered in any party can cross over and vote for any candidate of their choosing. So Democrats can vote for a Republican in one race and a Democrat in the other and Republicans can do the same thing. With this said, almost two out of five independent or decline-to-state voters (37%) will vote for Boxer in June, while 10% will vote for Fong and 8% for Issa. Among registered Republicans Issa is leading with 25%, followed by Fong with 19%. Ten percent will cross over and vote for Boxer.
     Boxer is able to maintain her strength in her base of Democrats, 67%, liberals, 65%, and self-described moderates, 47%. Twelve percent of Democrats say they will vote for one of the Republican candidates (Fong 5%, Issa, 7%). She does well in the Bay Area, which is her home, with 61% of the vote and also does well in Los Angeles county, 42%. Boxer receives 32% of the Central Valley voters while Issa does well in this area of the state, with 22% of the vote. He also gets 18% in the rest of southern California (excluding L.A. County). The less affluent the respondents are the more they will vote for the Democratic incumbent (50% for those earning less than $20K, 47% earning between $20K and $40K, 39% each of those earning between $40K and $60K and those earning more than $60K.
     More than a fifth (22%) of self-described conservatives say they will vote for Issa, while 13% will vote for Fong, his Republican opponent, and 19% for Boxer. Self-described moderates are voting for the incumbent, 47%, while 13% are for Fong and 10% for Issa. Moderate Republicans are divided over the 3 candidates with 25% for Fong, 20% for Issa and 18% for Boxer. Issa leads Fong for the conservative Republican vote, 28%-16%.
     Almost half of the younger respondents, 18-29, are more inclined to vote for Boxer than the older cohorts. More than two-thirds of the black voters will vote for the Democratic Senator, while 39% of whites will and 43% of Latinos will. Twelve percent of whites say they will vote for Fong and 16% for Issa. Among blacks, 2% are for Fong and 5% for Issa, and among Latinos 7% for Fong and 11% for Issa.
     
Favorability Ratings of the U.S. Senate Candidates
More than half (52%) of the electorate has a favorable impression of Boxer with 30% unfavorable and 18% uncertain. Issa, who has invested millions of dollars airing TV commercials up and down the state, is not known by most California voters. Sixty-three percent of the voters say they haven't heard enough about him to say with another 6% uncertain. This is in comparison to Al Checchi and Jane Harman, both candidates running for governor who also have been on the air extensively running TV commercials. Checchi has just 29% of voters saying they haven't heard enough about him, while 39% say that for Harman. But of those who have heard of Issa, 22% have a favorable impression and 9% unfavorable. Fong, who has been state Treasurer for more than three years, is unknown by similar proportions (60% haven't heard enough and 6% undecided). His positive rating is 25% and negative rating 9%. Fong has not had any ads on television. Fong and Issa are unknown entities for majorities of most demographic groups (ethnic and racial groups, income, gender, and education).
     Boxer is known by most demographic groups and most of them think positively of her. However, the more education the respondents have, the more they have a positive impression of her. Sixty-three percent of those with a college degree or more have a favorable impression of her, compared to 49% with some college, and 42% with a high school diploma. Her rating goes up with the least educated group -- 54% of those with less than a high school diploma. Moderate Republicans are split 42% each favorable and unfavorable, while 64% of conservative Republicans view her negatively. Women overall are inclined to have a more favorable opinion of the senator than men overall (55%-48%), but Democratic men and Democratic women both have high opinions of her (76%-71%).
     
November General Election
So far, there isn't a contest between Boxer and her two leading Republican opponents if the November general election were being held today. Boxer beats Fong and Issa by 16 points and 20 points respectively.
     In a Boxer vs. Fong matchup, among registered voters, Boxer receives 52% of the vote and Fong gets 36% with 12% undecided. In a Boxer vs. Issa matchup, Boxer receives 54% and Issa receives 34% with 12% undecided.
     Boxer vs. Fong: There is a gender gap with men giving Boxer 48% and Fong 43%. A majority of women are voting for Boxer at 55%, while 29% are voting for Fong. Not surprising, she finds strong support among her core base of liberals (76%), Democrats (77%), blacks (83%), the Bay Area (72%), the 18-29 year olds (60%) and those earning less than $20,000 (65%).
     Sixty-eight percent of Republicans say they would vote for Fong, as well as 59% of conservatives. Fong and Boxer are nearly even among the elderly (44% Fong-46% Boxer), those earning more than $60,000 (45% Fong-49% Boxer), white voters (41% Fong-49% Boxer), Central Valley voters (42% Fong-43% Boxer) and voters in the rest of southern California (excluding L.A. County) (45% Fong-44% Boxer).
     Boxer vs. Issa: There is also a gender gap with this matchup, with men voting for Boxer 49% to Issa's 42% and women supporting the Democratic senator 59% to 26%. The only groups that Issa splits with Boxer are the voters living in the Central Valley (43% Issa-42% Boxer) and those with some college (41% Issa-45% Boxer).
     
Boxer Job Approval vs. Feinstein Job Approval
Forty-five percent of Californians approve of the job Boxer is doing as senator, while 24% disapprove and 31% are uncertain. Her ratings are virtually unchanged from an October 1997 Times poll. Her ratings are also stronger with traditional Democrat groups, including Democrats overall (60%), liberals (58%), moderates (54%), liberal Democrats (67%), Bay Area residents (61%) and blacks (50%). Men are more disapproving. While she gets a higher job approval rating from Republican women than Republican men (35% to 19%), she gets slightly higher job approval ratings from Democratic men than Democratic women (66% to 56%).
     Senator Dianne Feinstein receives a more positive evaluation than Boxer with 53% of Californians approving of the job she is doing as senator. Twenty-eight percent disapprove and 19% are uncertain. Like Boxer, Feinstein's ratings are similar to those measured six months ago. Nearly three out of four Democrats (72%) approve of the job Feinstein is doing as U.S. senator (39% strongly approve). Her approval rating drops significantly among independents (41%) and Republicans (35%). She also receives a positive rating from 68% of liberals, 59% of moderates and 38% of conservatives. Feinstein also does better with liberal Democrats (78%) and other Democrats (70%) and moderate Republicans (48%) than conservative Republicans (27%).
     Support for Feinstein also increases with age, with 41% of 18 to 29 year olds approving of her performance and 63% of those 65 and over giving her a positive evaluation. She also does slightly better with blacks (64%) and Latinos (57%) than white residents (51%). Similar to Boxer, Feinstein is slightly weaker with Republican women (40%) than Republican men (31%).