Poll Analysis: GOP Nomination for U.S. Senate Up for Grabs

Two of every five likely California voters would choose incumbent U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer in a hypothetical primary election match-up with State Treasurer Matt Fong and California businessman Darrell Issa if the election were held today, according to the most recent Times poll.
     Fong and Issa are vying for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator in the state's first open or "blanket" primary in which registered voters may cast a vote for any candidate of their choice, regardless of party affiliation. Boxer is running with no strong Democratic challenge to her candidacy.
     With election day drawing near, businessman Darrell Issa and State Treasurer Matt Fong are running a virtual dead heat for the Republican nomination among Californians considered most likely to vote in the primary on June 2nd. Issa was selected by 22% of likely primary voters, while Fong garnered 20% of the vote and 18% remain undecided. Among all registered voters Issa and Fong have 16% and 15% of the vote, respectively, while over one in four (26%) are still undecided. When the Times Poll last measured this vote in early April of this year, Issa had 14% of the registered vote and Fong 11%. Frank Riggs was still in the race, garnering 6% of the vote at that time. Boxer's share of the overall vote was the same then as now, 42%.
     The large group of undecided likely voters (including 28% undecided likely Republican voters and over a third of undecided independent voters,) indicate that the race to become the Republican nominee can go either way.

Twenty four percent of Democrats and 15% of Republicans say they will cross party lines in their vote for California's U.S. Senator.

     One of the interesting features and an unknown factor in California's first open primary is cross-party voting. Eighteen percent of registered Democrats said they will vote for one of the two major Republican candidates in this primary race, and a similar proportion of Republicans (15%) said they will be crossing party lines to vote for Boxer on June 2nd. Among likely voters, 24% of Democrats said they will be voting for a Republican candidate, while 12% of Republicans will cast their vote for Boxer. Fourteen percent of likely Democratic voters picked Fong, and another 10% gave the nod to Issa. Among all registered independent voters, 8% support Republican candidate Fong, 42% gave their vote to Boxer, and 15% voted for Issa.
     If one looks at the race for Republican nominee among the only group that would have been voting for Republican candidates in a traditional party-only type primary, Republican likely voters tend to favor Issa slightly with 33% of the vote to Fong's 27%. Conservatives likely to vote in June also tend slightly toward Issa over Fong (who might generally be perceived to be the more moderate candidate,) at 32% to 27% respectively. Issa is the choice of conservative Republicans likely to vote, among whom he enjoys a nine point lead over Fong. Republican women likely voters also tend toward Issa.
     Conversely, the only demographic group that favors Fong are the more moderate likely Democrats, among whom Fong has a nine point lead (20% to 11%.) Moderate or conservative Republicans vote 26% for Fong and 21% for Issa.
     Boxer, running virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination, has attracted 64% of registered Democrats, 42% of independents and 15% of registered Republicans crossing party lines.

Fong's support is slightly stronger than Issa's, but over a third of each candidate's voters are still considering their choice.

     The survey found that Fong's support is firmer than Issa's among likely voters, with two in five (40%) saying they are certain they will vote for him on June 2nd and another 26% who said they probably will, contrasting with just over one in four (26%) of Issa's likely voters who said their mind is made up and 37% who said they will probably vote for him. Thirty-three percent of likely voters who picked Fong for their primary choice and 36% of those who chose Issa said they are still considering their choices.
     Support for the better-known Boxer, on the other hand, is quite strong--69% of likely voters who picked her as their primary choice said they will definitely vote for the incumbent U.S. Senator, and another 18% said they probably will. Only 13% of her voters said they are still considering their choices. Boxer has the advantage of no viable opposition to her candidacy for Democratic nominee. Unlike her Republican counterparts, she has been able to save her energies and her campaign funds for the general election race ahead.

Nearly two in three registered voters haven't heard enough about Issa and just under half haven't heard enough about Fong to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

     With less than two weeks to go before the election the Republican candidates remain something of a mystery to voters. There has been scant coverage of the senatorial race in the media.
     Despite several newspaper endorsements and his experience as a state office holder over the past four years, Matt Fong has largely been unable to catch the voters' attention. Forty-seven percent of likely voters haven't heard enough about the State Treasurer to venture an impression of him. Fong's limited campaign budget has constrained him to take a traditional approach, trying to generate media interest through personal appearances, and only recently has he begun airing a series of TV ads with wording that apparently targets the conservative Republican likely voters, nearly a third of whom remain undecided in this race. Fong does enjoy relatively high favorable ratings among those voters who expressed an opinion--40% percent of likely voters expressed a positive view of the State Treasurer and 13% have an unfavorable impression of him.
     Republican businessman Darrell Issa has run an expensive ($8 million as of May 13th) but largely ineffective television ad campaign in an attempt to raise his name recognition and take his message to the voters. In a survey conducted in early April, the Times Poll found 69% of registered voters and 58% of likely voters didn't know enough about Issa to venture an opinion. Those numbers did slip very slightly to 63% among registered voters and 53% among likely voters in the latest poll, but Issa has clearly not made himself a household name.
     Besides the majority who don't know enough about Issa to venture an opinion, a further 17% of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion while 30% view him favorably. Deep pockets don't guarantee results, as Michael Huffington proved, although he came close enough to hold out hope to those who follow. Huffington spent $27 million of his own money in a bare-knuckle bid for the U.S. Senate seat in 1994, overwhelming William Dannemeyer in the June primary but narrowly missing out to Feinstein in November by two points after a bruisingly negative campaign.
     Voters are split fairly evenly over whether they prefer a candidate who has to raise campaign funds over one who does not. Among the 29% of registered voters who said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who spends millions of dollars of their own money on their campaign, unsurprisingly, Issa has a 10 point lead--21% to 11%. Among the 27% who said they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, Fong leads 18% to 9% (Boxer gets the nod from 50% of these voters.) The 36% of voters who said that a candidate's personal spending limits made no difference to them are a mirror of the entire registered voter group, with 17% selecting Fong and 15% Issa.
     Although more voters have heard enough about her to have an opinion, just under half (48%) of all registered voters have a favorable impression of the Democratic incumbent, U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer. Thirty-four percent said they have an unfavorable opinion, and 18% don't know. Among the likely primary voters, this rating tightens to 47% favorable, 43% unfavorable and 8% don't know.
     Boxer's job rating is equally uninspiring and points to a possible weak spot in the Senator's bid for re-election next November. Less than half (44%) of registered voters approve of the Senator's performance over the last six years. Twenty-eight percent hold the opposite view, and another 28% of registered voters said they weren't sure if they approved or disapproved. These ratings are virtually identical to those measured last April among all registered voters.

November matchups

     When registered voters were asked to choose between Boxer and Fong or Boxer and Issa in hypothetical general election match-ups, they were inclined to favor Boxer over either Republican candidate by similar margins.
     If the general election were held today, 49% would vote for Boxer vs. 36% for Fong with 14% undecided among all registered voters. If the election was held with Boxer and Issa as the candidates, half of all registered voters would vote for Boxer, Issa garners 35% of the vote, and 14% remain undecided. In April, The Times Poll measured these gaps as marginally wider, with Boxer beating out Fong and Issa by 16 and 20 points respectively.
     Boxer's relatively weak job approval, low favorability ratings, and her inability to muster over half of the vote against opponents who have not yet focussed a campaign against her may point to a tough race for the incumbent U.S. Senator when she runs for re-election in November. Boxer was elected in 1992 with less than half of the vote (48% Boxer, 43% Herschensohn) in 1992, and she hasn't managed to expand her voter base over her term in office, according to this latest survey.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,514 California adults, including 1,097 registered voters and 506 likely voters, by telephone May 16 though 20. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points; for likely voters it is 5 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.