Poll Analysis: After Clinton’s Grand Jury Testimony, Americans Still Approve of His Job Performance, Not His Character

Americans' overall impression of President Bill Clinton has diminished in light of his public admission that he had a relationship with former White House intern, Monica Lewinsky, that "was not appropriate." However, most likely buoyed by a strong economy, Clinton still enjoys a positive job rating from nearly two-thirds of Americans and is viewed by most Americans as an effective leader, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll conducted August 18-19, just days after Clinton's precedent-setting grand jury testimony and public statement.
     Despite positive job evaluations, nearly half of Americans believe Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie about their relationship under oath and believe he should be impeached or resign if this is proven true. Furthermore, while half of Americans are satisfied with Clinton's television explanation of his relationship with Lewinsky, just 16% believe he provided an apology. Instead, nearly half believe he tried shifting the blame to Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr.
     Two-thirds (65%) of Americans tuned in to Clinton's televised address Monday evening where Clinton told the public that he had an inappropriate relationship with Lewinsky, but did not offer detailed information on his grand jury testimony or the relationship. An additional 16% heard or read about his speech later-for an extraordinarily high 81% awareness of his public comments.

Satisfaction With Clinton's Statement
     More than half of Americans (53%) are satisfied with the explanation Clinton gave about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky (38% are dissatisfied). However, a plurality of respondents, 47%, believe Clinton only took some responsibility for his actions and tried shifting the blame to Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr--a view held by higher proportions of Americans who watched the speech on television (54% versus 40% for those who read or heard about it later). Just 16% believe his statement was a sincere apology, with the remaining 28% believing he took responsibility but did not apologize.
     In general, women are more satisfied with Clinton's explanation of the affair than men (57% to 49%) and slightly more likely to think he gave a true apology for his actions (20% to 12%). Unsurprisingly, Democrats and liberals are more likely to be satisfied with Clinton's explanation (64% and 73% respectively) than Republicans and conservatives (27% and 39%). Democrats and liberals are also less likely to view the speech as trying to pass blame to Kenneth Starr.

Personal Ratings of Clinton
     Growing out of Clinton's relationship with Lewinsky and his public address on Monday, Americans give Clinton lukewarm to poor ratings for personal attributes. Americans are currently divided in their impression of the president, with 49% giving him a favorable rating and 47% giving him an unfavorable review. This rating contrasts with a 57% to 36% favorable rating from a Los Angeles Times poll conducted in late January, shortly after the allegations about President Clinton's involvement with Lewinsky surfaced. In addition, 7 out of 10 Americans do not think that Clinton shares their moral values and do not think he is positive role model. Americans are also divided on whether Clinton has the honesty and integrity needed to be president (48% to 48%). Seven months ago, Americans leaned toward believing Clinton had the requisite honesty and integrity--54% to 38%. Clinton's weak ratings on personal and moral issues clearly reflect dissatisfaction with his behavior with Lewinsky. Forty-seven percent of Americans said the fact that he had an inappropriate relationship with Lewinsky makes them think less of Clinton as a person (49% said it makes no difference and three percent said it gives them a better impression of the president as a person).
     Americans who watched Clinton's public address are more likely to think less of the president for having an inappropriate relationship with Lewinsky (52%) than those who read about his speech later (42%) or did not tune in to his speech at all (36%).

Political Leadership Ratings of Clinton
     While Clinton's ratings are weak for his moral leadership, he fares much better when Americans are asked to rate his political leadership. Despite two-thirds of Americans believing the controversy surrounding the investigation has interfered with Clinton's ability to effectively do his job as president, Clinton's still receives a positive job rating from 62% of Americans (35% disapprove of his job performance). This finding represents only a slight drop from the end of January when 68% approved of the job he was doing as president. More specifically, 71% of Americans approve of the job Clinton is doing handling the economy, 68% believe he is effective and gets things done, and 56% approve of how he has handled foreign affairs (a number that may have changed in light of Clinton's decision to bomb terrorist camps in Sudan and Afghanistan yesterday). Moreover, half of Americans (53%) believe the county is in better shape since Clinton took office six years ago. Just 14% believe the country is worse off, with the remaining one-third (31%) of Americans believing Clinton's presidency has not made a difference in this regard (this result is virtually unchanged from January 1998). And when asked specifically if his relationship with Lewinsky gave them less confidence in Clinton's ability to perform his job as president, just 29% said it did. Two-thirds of respondents said the recent revelations did not make a difference in their confidence in Clinton's ability to do his job.
     Women generally rate the president more favorably on a number of indicators than men, including his overall job rating (68% to 56%) and handling of the economy (73% to 69%) and foreign affairs (60% to 52%). They are also more likely to think he cares about people like them (59% to 46%) and shares their views on political issues (60% to 45%). However, women are just as likely as men to believe that Clinton is not a good role model and does not share their moral values.
     Unsurprisingly, opinions of Clinton break along partisan lines. Democrats are significantly more likely to rate the president positively than Republicans on nearly every dimension. Just 37% of Republicans give Clinton a positive job rating, compared to 58% of Independents and 81% of Democrats. However, while Clinton's favorable rating remains high with Democrats (70%), Independents are divided in their overall impression of the president (47% to 48%). Independents are also divided on whether Clinton cares about people like them, has the honesty and integrity needed to be president, and shares their views. This is a warning sign for the White House; Independents are an important swing voter group and critical in maintaining Clinton's majority support from the American public.
     Regardless of party affiliation, a majority of all Americans believe Clinton does not share their values and is not a good role model. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats, 66% of Independents, and 92% of Republicans said Clinton does not share their values and similar proportions of each party said Clinton is not a good role model.

Grand Jury Testimony
     Potentially related to a loss of personal respect for Clinton in light of his admission, Americans are now divided over whose statement of events they would believe--Clinton or Lewinsky. Thirty-five percent of Americans said they would believe Clinton over Lewinsky if their grand jury testimonies are inconsistent and 38% said they would believe Lewinsky (women are slightly more likely to believe Clinton while men are slightly more likely to believe Lewinsky). Lewinsky's story would win out over Clinton's despite 7 out of 10 Americans viewing her unfavorably. Americans are also slightly more likely to believe Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie under oath and deny they had a relationship, with 47% believing this allegation is true and 37% believing it is not (with women, again, more likely to call this allegation untrue than men--40% to 33%).

Views on Impeachment or Resignation
     Clinton's public pronouncement of his actions with Lewinsky may have diffused the issue somewhat for many Americans. A still high 53% of Americans think Clinton should be impeached (23%) or resign (30%) if it is proven that he encouraged Lewinsky to lie under oath. However, in January 1998, shortly after the allegations surfaced, 57% of Americans favored impeachment if Clinton obstructed justice in this manner, an additional eight percent thought he should resign, and 29% believed neither should occur (note that the questions were worded differently which can impact survey outcomes).
     Even fewer Americans believe Clinton should be impeached for having the relationship itself (an impeachable offense if it is proven that he lied under oath in the Paula Jones deposition). Just 10% of Americans in the current survey believe Clinton should be impeached for having an inappropriate relationship with Lewinsky. Another 22% think he should resign. However, 61% said the matter should be dropped. In January, Americans were asked if they would favor impeachment if Clinton lied under oath about having an affair with Lewinsky. At that time (and with that wording), 41% said he should be impeached, 10% said he should resign and 42% said neither should occur. The difference in these numbers suggest that Americans are willing to accept Clinton's statement of responsibility and admission of the affair and pardon Clinton for his inappropriate behavior.
     Americans who watched Clinton's televised address are somewhat less likely to believe Clinton and more willing to take action against the president for his behavior. These respondents are more likely to think Clinton should be impeached or resign for having the inappropriate relationship. Furthermore, they are more likely to think that Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie under oath and more likely to say he should resign if this fact is proven true.
     Republicans are also more likely to believe Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie, to believe he should be impeached or resign for obstructing justice, to believe he should be removed from office for having the affair itself. Slightly over half of Republicans believe Clinton should be removed from office for having the affair, compared to just 22% of Democrats. However, one third of Independents favor impeachment or resignation for having the relationship as well. And while three-fourths of Republicans would remove Clinton from office if it were proven true that he encouraged Lewinsky to lie, a still-high 55% of Independents would do so as well (just 39% of Democrats feel this way). Furthermore, by a 2 to 1 ratio, Democrats would believe Clinton over Lewinsky if their grand jury testimonies differed. By nearly a 4 to 1 ratio, Republicans would believe Lewinsky. Independents are nearly divided--32% for Clinton and 37% for Lewinsky.

Views of Kenneth Starr and Investigation
     In Clinton's public address he spoke out against Kenneth Starr's investigation, arguing that it has gone on too long and is fueled by partisan politics. Americans agree with the President in this regard. Nearly three-fourths (73%) of Americans believe the investigation has gone on too long and is taking attention away from more important issues. Just 24% believe it is important to get all the facts about Clinton's involvement with Monica Lewinsky, no matter how long it takes. Even half (54%) of Republicans and 61% of conservatives believe the investigation has gone on too long.
     Fifty-nine percent of Americans also believe that the investigation has more to do with partisan politics than getting to the truth. Just 30% of Americans believe the investigation is about getting to the truth. Nearly half (47%) of conservatives and 37% of Republicans believe the investigation has more to do with partisan politics as well.
     Furthermore, 40% of Americans said they now have a more negative opinion about how politics works in Washington D.C. than they did eight months ago before the allegations against Clinton emerged.
     Yet despite these views, 41% approve of the job Kenneth Starr has done as independent counsel (44% disapprove). Americans who watched Clinton's public address are slightly more likely to give Starr a positive job rating (46%) than those who read about it later (30%) or were not aware of Clinton's speech at all (33%). Two-thirds of Republicans approve of Starr's performance, compared to 27% of Democrats. Independents are divided in their view.

How the Poll Was Conducted
The Times Poll contacted 1,387 adults nationwide, by telephone August 18 and 19. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. In addition, the sample was adjusted slightly for national party affiliation. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus three percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.