Poll Analysis: The Governor’s Race Tightens

Buoyed by loyal Republicans coming home to their proverbial nest, Atty. Gen. and Republican nominee Dan Lungren is now in a tight race against Lt. Gov. and Democratic nominee Gray Davis in his quest to become the next governor of California, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. However, with six weeks remaining in the campaign, the race is still extremely fluid and either candidate at this point can win in November. Among registered voters Davis receives 46% of the vote compared to 42% for Lungren. But when you disregard voters who are only leaning towards Davis and leaning toward Lungren, Davis maintains a five point lead--41% to 36%.

Clinton's Problems and the Effect on the Election
     To further show the softness of the vote, different turnout scenarios were analyzed, and with a moderate turnout, the candidates tie at 46%. One explanation may be that the Clinton scandal and the thunderstorm of calls for his resignation plus the likelihood of impeachment hearings has put this election and others (in different states) in uncharted waters. How to assess who will come out to vote and who will stay home may not be something that can be measured at this point in time in the ways that we have done in the past. The Clinton story is moving very fast and the dynamics may change every day. Will the voters opinions change as fast as the story?
     The Times Poll examined whether the Clinton story had any affect so far on the election with this question: Does President Clinton's admission that he had an inappropriate relationship with Monica Lewinsky make you more or less likely to vote in November, or does it not make a difference one way or the other? About 4 out of 5 voters said it would not make a difference, but 14% said it would make them more likely to go to the polls, while 5% said less likely. Virtually all Democrats (90%) and 71% of Republicans said it would not make a difference.
      However almost a quarter (23%) of Republicans said it would make them more likely to go to the polls and 5% said less likely. Only 6% of Democrats said it would make them more likely and 3% said less likely. The Republican challenger gets some help from Clinton's problems. A fifth of Lungren's supporters said they would be more likely to go to the polls in November because of the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal, 6% less likely and 73% said no difference. Just 7% of Davis' supporters said they would be more likely to go to the polls because of the president's problems, 5% less likely and 88% said no difference.
     Labor Day is typically the start of election campaigns, with eight weeks to go before election day and both candidates began airing their commercials in earnest. (The Times Poll interviewed between September 12 and 17, during the days following the Starr Report.) Lungren began airing spots on crime (he wins handily over Davis, 47%-30%, when asked who is better on crime), and retooling his character commercials because of the scandal in the White House. He is using character as a buzzword for Clinton's problems while trying to link Davis with Clinton.

Impressions of the Two Major Candidates
     Davis' favorability rating has not changed since the Poll asked this question in May before the primary. More than half (55%) of the electorate has a favorable impression of the Lt. Governor, while 18% have an unfavorable impression. Besides getting positive ratings from his core group of Democrats (72%-7%) and liberals (74%-9%), he also does well among moderates (59%-13%), independents (46%-25%), and even Republicans (39%-29%).
     Lungren's favorable rating is also higher than his unfavorable rating. Half of the voters have a favorable impression of the GOP candidate, 26% unfavorable. Besides his core group of Republicans (77%-9%) and conservatives (67%-11%) giving him positive ratings, moderates (48%-27%) and independents (41%-28%) do as well. However, unlike Republicans viewing Davis more favorably, Democrats view Lungren more unfavorably, 40% to 32%.

How the Race Shakes Out Demographically
     One reason for a close race is that the Republicans are now voting for Lungren. In the June open primary, 25% of Republicans voted for one of the Democratic candidates, 70% for Lungren. Now 15% of registered Republicans would vote for the Democrat, while 75% would vote for the attorney general. About half of the voters who said they voted for Checchi in the open primary, (51%) said they will vote for Lungren in November while nearly 2 out of 5 of his voters will vote for Davis. Sixty-five percent of those who said they voted for Harman in the open primary said they will support Davis, while 24% will support Lungren.
     Looking at Republicans more closely, 81% of conservative Republicans and 64% of non-conservative Republicans would vote for their Republican candidate, as would 76% of Republican men and 73% of Republican women. Lungren is also getting 17% of Democrats, including 11% of liberal Democrats, 23% of non-liberal Democrats, 22% of Democratic men and 14% of Democratic women.
     On the other hand, Davis is endorsed by 85% of liberal Democrats and 63% of non-liberal Democrats, as well as 72% of Democratic men and 74% of Democratic women. Davis is also being supported by 27% of non-conservative Republicans, 10% of conservative Republicans, 12% of Republican men and 18% of Republican women. Davis edges Lungren for the independents/declined to state voters (42% Davis, 35% Lungren).
     There is a gender gap with women voting for Davis (47%-39%) and men splitting their vote between the two candidates (45% for Lungren-44% for Davis). Not surprisingly, three-quarters of the liberals support Davis, and almost two-thirds of conservatives support Lungren. About a fifth each of liberals and conservatives will vote for either of the two major candidates. About half of the moderate voters said they will vote for the Democrat, a third for the Republican. Majorities of voters living in L.A. and the Bay Area support Davis, while the rest of southern California voters excluding L.A. are behind Lungren. The Central Valley marginally backs Lungren (46%-41%) and rest of northern California voters are somewhat divided.
     Elderly voters are somewhat more inclined to vote for Lungren (49%-43%), while 59% of the younger cohort (18-29 years old) support Davis. Those 30-44 years old are divided (43% Lungren, 41% Davis), while nearly half (49%) of the 45-64 year old group is going for Davis, 40% for Lungren. Elderly women are virtually split in their vote (44% Lungren, 46% Davis). However women 30-44 years old back Davis at 44% as well as younger women (18-29) who are solidly supporting Davis (55%). More than half of 45-64 year olds women voters are also for the Lt. Governor.
      Elderly men are staunchly backing Lungren (56%), as well as a plurality of men 30-44 years old (47%). The younger men, 18-29 years old, solidly back Davis (64%) and the 45-64 year old men are divided as to whom they will vote for in November.
     As Mark Z. Barabak writes in his story on Sunday, about the gap in the different ethnic and racial groups, "Lungren leads among whites while Davis runs overwhelmingly ahead among African American voters. While Davis garnered 55% of Latino support, Lungren's outreach efforts appeared to be making considerable inroads, with the GOP nominee picking up 32% of Latino backing.
     In contrast, Wilson garnered only 23% of Latino support in his 1994 reelection. Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole, facing a backlash in the wake of Proposition 187--the controversial anti-illegal immigration initiative--received just 18% of the Latino vote in November 1996."

"Character" as a Wedge Issue
     On the issue of character which Lungren is making a centerpiece of his campaign, it is essentially a wash. A third (32%) of the electorate believe that Davis has the honesty and integrity to serve as the next governor of California, 27% think Lungren does. Fifteen percent of voters think both have that attribute. However, in the June open primary exit poll that the Times poll conducted, 14% cited honesty and integrity as the reason why they voted for their candidate. And of those who mentioned that attribute, 50% voted for Lungren, 24% voted for Davis, 12% for Harman and 9% for Checchi.
     To further show that Lungren's push into making character an issue has not helped him as he hoped it would, the poll shows nearly 2 out of five voters (38%) believe that Davis shares the same values as they do, while 34% think Lungren does.
     The voters also believe that both candidates have strong leadership qualities--37% said Lungren and 38% said Davis. More women think Davis has stronger leadership qualities, while more men think Lungren does. Moderates and independents believe Davis has stronger leadership qualities.
     Davis is pushing his military service during the Vietnam War to show another side of his character while showing that Lungren did not serve in the military because of a student deferment and medical reasons. However, it is not resonating with the voters. Nearly 9 out of 10 voters said it would not affect their vote one way or the other when deciding their vote for governor, just 11% said less likely. And virtually the same number of voters said Davis' military service during the Vietnam War would not affect their vote one way or the other. Just 12% said more likely.

Issues: the Candidates' Strengths and Weaknesses
     Education is the number one priority when voters were asked what is the most important problem facing the state today--this result is higher than mentions of crime (27%). It is also higher than when the Times Poll asked the same question before the June statewide primary in April. Then, 30% of the electorate said education was the number one priority. Davis gets the upper hand over Lungren on this issue. (Davis is running education ads on TV.) When asked who would be better at handling education in the state, nearly half, 46%, of the voters said Davis, compared to 31% for Lungren. A majority of moderates and a plurality of independents give this issue to the Lt. Governor. Although 47% of non-conservative Republicans said Lungren would be better at handling the state's education, a third of them said Davis.
     When respondents were asked why they were voting for their candidate, 10% of those voting for Davis said his stand on education, 25% his stand on the issues in general, 14% his experience, and 13% because he is the best candidate. And he gets points for just being a Democrat, 23%. Of those voting for Lungren, just 4% cited education, 26% his stand on the issues in general, 14% that he is the best candidate and 20% just because he is a Republican.
     Lungren wins handily over Davis when it comes to the candidate that would do a better job of handling crime (47%-30%). Although both candidates support capital punishment and have argued heatedly about this issue during their first two debates, 51% of the electorate believe Lungren is the better candidate for enforcing the death penalty. Just 16% think Davis is. Even Democrats (41%), independents (43%), liberals (44%) and moderates (45%) all think Lungren would be stronger in enforcing capital punishment in the state than Davis.

Other Issues
     Forty-three percent of voters think Davis would be better handling the state's economy, while 35% think Lungren would.
     Forty-four percent of voters think Davis would do a better job of working with the state legislature, 29% think Lungren would.
     Many registered voters (53%) favor a school voucher program that would allow parents to use tax funds to send their children to the school of their choice even if it were a private school. Lungren is in favor of this plan and yet voters are no more likely to vote for him because of it (30% more likely, 30% less likely, 37% said it has no affect on their vote). Davis is opposed to school vouchers and he gets a marginal negative vote as a result (34% less likely, 28% more likely, 35% no affect).
     Abortion is another issue where the candidates are miles apart and Davis is more in the mainstream among California voters than his opponent. Davis believes it is the right of every woman to decide whether to have an abortion or not. Lungren is against abortion, except in cases of rape, or incest, or if the mother's life is in danger. A solid majority, 57% said that their view comes closer to Davis' than Lungren's (37%). Even 39% of Republicans, including 54% of non-conservative Republicans, 33% of conservative Republicans, 42% of Republican men and 36% of Republican women said their views are closer to Davis', the Democratic challenger, than their own party's candidate.
     The issue of abortion hurts Lungren slightly while it helps Davis. A third of the voters said they would be more likely to vote for Davis because of his views on abortion, 23% less likely, while the reverse is true for Lungren. A third of the voters said they would be less likely to vote for the attorney general because of his views on abortion, compared to 24% who said more likely. About a fifth each of Republican men and Republican women said they would be more likely to vote for Davis because of his views on abortion, while 15% of Democratic men and 10% of Democratic women said they would be less likely to vote for Davis because of his sentiments on abortion. Conversely, 31% of non-conservative Republicans and 14% of conservative Republicans said they would be less likely to vote for Lungren because of his views on abortion, while 9% of liberal Democrats and 17% of non-liberal Democrats said they would be more likely to vote for Lungren because of his views on this issue. About a fifth each of Republican men and Republican women would be less likely to vote for Lungren, while 18% of Democratic men and 8% of Democratic women would be more likely to vote for the GOP nominee because of his sentiments on abortion.

How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters and 684 likely voters, by telephone September 12-17. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration.
     The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points; for likely voters it is four points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.
     Although Asian-Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.