Poll Analysis: California Voters Support Tribal Casinos Initiative Statute

With six weeks to go until the general election, most of the California electorate is unsure of how they will vote on three of the measures that will be facing them on the November 3rd ballot. Large numbers of California voters also express uncertainty over their choices in the so-called down-ballot races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, state controller, secretary of state, insurance commissioner and superintendent of public instruction, according to a recent Los Angeles Times poll.

Proposition 5: The Tribal Casinos Initiative
     The only proposition to garner much attention from Californians so far is Proposition 5, the Tribal Casinos Initiative, which seems likely to pass on November 3rd. The measure would allow casino-style gambling on Native American lands in addition to games which already bring millions of dollars of revenue into tribal coffers and create thousands of jobs. When asked if they had heard, read or seen anything about the initiative, 61% of registered voters said they had. A 43% plurality said they would vote for the initiative, 18% against. The state's voters considered most likely to turn out to vote on November 3rd responded almost identically, with 45% for, 19% against and 36% not sure. When read the proposition's ballot language, the plurality among all registered voters increased to a 57% majority saying they would vote yes, 28% said no and 15% still weren't sure. Again, likely voters cast their votes in nearly identical proportion, 59% affirmative, 28% negative and 13% not sure.
     The fairly high awareness of Proposition 5 is likely the result of heavy spending on ad campaigns by those on both sides of the issue. Eighty-one percent of voters had viewed a commercial about the issue, 69% said they had watched a commercial favoring Prop 5, while 59% had seen a commercial opposing it. Overall, 54% said they had seen commercials sponsored by both sides in the debate. Support for the measure is significantly higher and indecision lower for the initiative among those registered voters having watched a commercial from either side--61% would vote yes, 27% no, and 12% aren't sure. Only a 43% plurality of those voters who have not seen a commercial would vote yes, 36% say they will vote no and 21% are undecided. The numbers are little changed whether the commercial watched was positive or negative, demonstrating the broad support the poll found for the issue.
     Indian casinos are not at this time a major form of entertainment for Californians, the poll found, with nearly three quarters saying they had not nor had anyone in their immediate family visited one. Still, one out of every four poll respondents or someone in their immediate family has gone to an Indian casino, forming the basis for the tribal claims of economic dependency on existing gaming machines. The state has demanded that the tribes operating these gaming machines shut them down, claiming they are operating illegally.
     When asked how often they gamble, 6% of Californians said often, another 20% said they gamble sometimes, while 41% said rarely and another third said they never gamble. Possibly in response to the economic self-sufficiency arguments laid out in commercials supporting Proposition 5, support for the initiative is not entirely predicated upon gambling habits. While Poll findings show support is highest among those who gamble sometimes or often (65%), even half (51%) of those who say they never gamble would vote to pass the initiative while 33% say they would not.

Other Ballot Measures: Propositions 9 and 10
     The other ballot propositions tested in the recent Times poll aren't as familiar to voters. A whopping 82% of the electorate and of likely voters hadn't heard enough about Proposition 9, the Electric Utilities Assessments Initiative to venture an opinion. Even after being read a description of the measure's ballot language, a 43% plurality of registered voters and 46% of likely voters would not commit to a yes or no vote. Among those who did express an opinion the proposition fared well, passing 63% to 37% among registered and likely voters alike.Similarly, seven of ten registered and likely voters had no opinion when first asked about Proposition 10, which would levy a 50 cent per pack cigarette tax to fund early childhood development and smoking prevention programs. After being read the ballot language, however, voters made up their minds quickly, saying they would approve the proposition by a 54% to 35% majority among registered, with only 11% left undecided. The numbers among likely voters are virtually identical to those among all registered voters.

Down Ballot Races
Not surprisingly, the down ballot races generate much less interest among California voters than the more highly visible contests for California governor and U.S. senator. With six weeks to go, the poll found between four and five out of every ten voters has not heard enough about the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, controller, and secretary of state to be able to choose a candidate. The race for insurance commissioner is slightly more visible, with a large majority of voters able to identify a candidate of their choice and there is more awareness, among state Democrats, at least, of incumbent Kathleen Connell for state controller.
     Kathleen Connell enjoys a comfortable double digit lead (38% to 22%, with 40% undecided) over Republican candidate Ruben Barrales among all registered voters in the race for controller. Among likely voters, Connell's lead tightens slightly to 13 percentage points (40% to 27% with 33% undecided.) Connell garners a strong 60% among Democratic registered voters and has 15% of the Republican vote, while only 46% of Republicans and 5% of Democrats have made up their minds to vote for Barrales at this time. Despite her double digit lead, the high percentage of undecided voters makes the outcome of this race uncertain.
     Chuck Quackenbush and Diane Martinez are running a slightly higher profile race for state insurance commissioner, with 71% of registered voters venturing a choice at this time. This may be a result of the non-election related advertising incumbent Quackenbush ran before the primary and more recently. The ads may have raised awareness about the race, but their benefit to Quackenbush remains to be seen, as his 36% of the vote among registered voters looks very similar to the 35% garnered by Martinez. Twenty-eight percent have yet to make up their minds. Among likely voters, Quackenbush has an early lead of 8 points, 42% to 34% with 23% undecided.
     In the contest for attorney general, Democratic candidate Bill Lockyer has a six point lead over Republican candidate Dave Stirling, 31% to 25%, with 44% still unsure. Among those voters considered most likely to turn out in November's election, the race tightens to a virtual dead heat, 31% for Lockyer to Stirling's 30% with the plurality (39%) still making up their mind.Bill Jones, the Republican candidate for secretary of state garners 28% of the vote among all registered voters while 30% said they will vote for Michela Alioto, and 42% are undecided. Among likely voters, the race widens slightly with Jones at 34% to Alioto's 29% while a plurality of 37% are not sure.
     Republican Curt Pringle and Democrat Phil Angelides are running a similarly tight race for California treasurer among those who are following it, with one out of four registered voters choosing Pringle, 27% voting for Angelides and nearly half (47%) of all registered voters unsure of their vote in this low profile race six weeks in advance of the election. Among likely voters, the race is similarly divided with 30% expressing support for Pringle, 27% for Angelides, and 42% undecided.
     The race for the nonpartisan office of superintendent of public instruction is of especially low interest to the voting public, who do not have party identification to help them choose between equally unfamiliar candidates. Two-thirds of voters don't yet know if they will cast their vote for Gloria Matta Tuchman or Delaine Eastin, who is not experiencing the possible advantage of incumbency her colleagues Connell and Quackenbush enjoy. Matta Tuchman's co-sponsorship (with Ron Unz) of controversial Proposition 227--banning bilingual education in California's public schools--which passed handily in the June primary has likewise done little to raise voter interest for or against her candidacy. Among all registered voters, 10% chose Matta Tuchman while 24% said they would vote for Eastin if the election were being held today. The numbers change little among likely voters, with 27% choosing Eastin and 11% for Matta Tuchman. A significant majority (62%) of voters considered most likely to vote have not yet made up their minds in this race.

How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters and 684 likely voters, by telephone September 12-17. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points; for likely voters it is four points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.