Poll Analysis: A Majority of California Voters Disapprove of Hearings to Impeach Clinton

Buoyed by a strong job approval rating and a generally positive perception of the state's direction, a majority of Californians considered most likely to vote this November disapprove of Congress' decision to begin impeachment hearings against President Clinton, according to a recent Los Angeles Times poll. Many pundits have speculated whether Clinton's affair and reaction to it would hurt Democrats in this November's elections. While the actual impact of events in Washington D.C. on the California election is difficult to predict, the Times Poll findings suggest that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis has most likely not suffered as a result of his fellow Democrat's missteps. Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Lungren currently has more to lose as a result of Congressional Republicans' response to the Lewinsky scandal and vote to proceed with impeachment hearings.

     Opinions About Handling of the Lewinsky Affair and Impeachment Hearings
     Slightly more than half of likely voters in California--54%--disapprove of Congress' decision to begin impeachment hearings against President Clinton. Forty-two percent approve of the decision. Opinions on the impeachment hearings are divided along partisan lines, with 82% of likely Democratic voters disapproving and 72% of likely Republican voters approving. Furthermore, 83% of liberals disapprove of the decision while 74% of conservatives most likely to vote approve. However, Clinton continues to hold his support from voters in Òthe middle.Ó Sixty-one percent of likely independent voters disapprove of beginning impeachment hearings and 69% of moderates also give this response.
     Approximately 6 out of 10 likely voters in the traditionally more Democratic regions of the state, including the Bay Area, the rest of Northern California, and Los Angeles County, disapprove of the impeachment hearings while voters in the more conservative Central Valley and Southern California areas outside of Los Angeles County lean slightly toward approving of the vote to begin hearings. Younger voters, the most affluent voters (those making over $60,000 a year in household income), whites, and men are divided in their view while the least affluent voters (those making under $20,000 a year in household income), voters 45 years of age or older, African Americans, Latinos, and women disapprove of Congress' decision in higher proportions.

     Impact of the Lewinsky Scandal on the California Vote
     Most voters--72%--report that the Lewinsky scandal and the Congressional vote to proceed with impeachment hearings against President Clinton will not influence their decision to vote this November. Twenty-six percent of likely voters, however, said these events will make them more likely to vote. Although this is a small fraction of the electorate and may have little influence on campaign outcomes, any event that motivates certain voters to turn out and diminishes the interests of others could make a difference in tight contests up and down the state.While Democrats and Republicans are equally likely (26% and 23% respectively) to say that the Lewinsky scandal and vote to begin impeachment hearings will make them more likely to vote, 40% of independents give this response. If independents act on their inclination, candidates who more successfully court swing voters may have an even greater advantage on election day. African American likely voters and college-educated likely voters are also slightly more likely than other subgroups to say events surrounding the Lewinsky affair will make them more likely to vote. Again, if these voters act on their inclination, candidates whose support is strongest with these groups may benefit as well.
     Among the 26% of likely voters who report that the Lewinsky affair and events surrounding it will make them more likely to vote, 50% said they will vote for Democrat Barbara Boxer and 44% for Republican Matt Fong in the U.S. Senate race. This suggests that neither party's candidate is greatly benefiting from the miscalculations of the other's party in Washington D.C. in this close race for U.S. Senate. In the race for Governor, 57% of those who said they would be more likely to turn out choose Davis as their candidate and 40% choose Lungren. Part of Davis' advantage with this group may simply be a function of his lead in the race overall. Yet, some of Davis' lead with this group may result from a backlash against the Republicans for their handling of the Lewinsky affair. In fact, 42% of likely Republican voters who disapprove of Congress' decision to begin impeachment hearings give their support to Davis and just 45% to Lungren.

     Impact of Vote To Impeach on Future Congressional Elections
     Reflecting the majority opposition to impeachment hearings, 39% of voters said they would be less likely to re-elect their member of Congress if he or she voted to impeach the President. Twenty-nine percent of likely voters said they would be more likely to re-elect their member and 26% said it would make no difference to them. More than half (59%) of Democrats and 67% of liberals said they would be less likely to re-elect their member of Congress if he or she voted to impeach the President while 52% of Republicans and 55% of conservatives said they would be more likely to re-elect their member for voting to impeach. The view of independents and moderates more closely reflects that of Democrats and liberals, with 47% of independents and 44% of moderates less likely to vote for their member of Congress if he or she votes to impeach Clinton.
     Members of Congress generally make decisions on whether to support impeachment hearings or impeachment itself based on the views of their district's constituents. The Times Poll shows that, by a 2 to 1 ratio, Bay Area voters and voters in the rest of Northern California would be less likely to re-elect their member if he or she voted to impeach the president. Los Angeles County voters would be even more likely to vote against their incumbent for supporting impeachment, with 50% giving this response and just 20% saying they would be more likely to re-elect their member if he or she supports impeachment. However, voters in the more conservative counties of Southern California outside of Los Angeles County would be more inclined to support their incumbent if he or she voted to impeach (44% more likely and 29% less likely). Central Valley voters are divided in their view.
     Traditionally more Democratic, approximately 6 out of 10 of African American voters and 5 out of 10 Latino voters would be less likely to re-elect their member of Congress, while white voters most likely to vote are divided in their view. Younger voters, those making over $20,000 a year in household income, less educated voters, and men are also more divided in what their reaction would be. Older voters, less affluent voters, college-educated voters and women would be more inclined to vote against than in favor of their incumbent if he or she voted to impeach the President.

     President Clinton's Ratings
     President Clinton's strong job performance rating most likely stands behind voter disapproval of launching impeachment hearings against him. President Clinton continues to receive strong ratings from Californians most likely to go to the polls this November, with 61% giving him a positive review and just 38% rating his job performance negatively. In a Los Angeles Times poll conducted one month ago, Clinton received similarly high ratings from likely voters: 57% to 41%.
     Clinton gets overwhelmingly positive reviews from his base voter groups among those most likely to vote, including 91% of Democrats and 93% of liberals. He also does well in the traditionally more liberal regions of the Bay Area (72%) and Los Angeles County (72%), as well Northern California areas outside of the Bay Area (66%). Demonstrating the partisan and ideological cleavage, Clinton is far weaker with Republicans (30% approve and 69% disapprove) and conservatives (29% approve and 70% disapprove). However, likely voters in the more conservative regions of the Central Valley and Southern California outside of Los Angeles County are divided in their view.
     The survey shows that Clinton continues to receive strong support from the important swing voter groups of independents and moderates--groups whose support is critical for Clinton to maintain majority support in the state. Sixty percent of independents give him a positive job approval rating (40% disapprove) and 72% of moderates rate him positively (27% disapprove). Furthermore, 57% of non-conservative Republicans approve of Clinton's job performance--another critical swing voter group in California.
     Clinton's approval rating outweighs his disapproval rating with likely voters regardless of age, income, education, ethnicity, and gender. However, his ratings are stronger with women than men, African Americans and Latinos than whites, less affluent voters, and less educated voters.

     The Mood in California
     A majority of likely voters in California continue to have a positive perception of the direction of the state. Fifty-three percent believe things in California are generally going in the right direction while 36% believe things are seriously off on the wrong track. However, this finding represents a significant decline from one month ago when 66% of likely voters believed the state was going in the right direction and 25% believed it was not. The drop in optimism may be an outgrowth of a more volatile stock market that is making Californians more insecure about the state's economic future.
     Likely Democratic voters hold the most optimistic view, with 59% believing things are moving in the right direction and 31% believing things are seriously off on the wrong track. Independents (51% positive and 43% negative) and Republicans (47% to 40%) are more divided in their view of the state's direction. Likely liberals are also more positive about the state (63% to 29%) than moderates (53% to 36%) and conservatives (46% to 41%). The least affluent voters are the only subgroup to have a more negative (45%) than positive view (39%) of the state's direction.

     How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,449 California registered voters, including 883 voters deemed most likely to vote, by telephone October 17-21. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points and for likely voters, it is four points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asians were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.