(7/05/04) Poll Analysis: Mayor’s Job Approval Rating Still Hovering Below 50% Citywide

Time has not healed the wounds Mayor James K. Hahn’s job approval was dealt by his controversial opposition to the reappointment of ex Police Chief Bernard Parks last April, although there are some signs that the process may have begun, according to the latest survey by the Los Angeles Times Poll. The mayor’s job approval continues to hover well below 50% in most areas of the city (the Westside being the lone exception), but it has risen slightly among African Americans. However, there was no softening in the proportion of those who disapprove of the job he is doing.

The survey measured the mayor’s approval rating at 46% to 26% among all city residents, and 47% to 31% among registered voters citywide. This overall rating among all residents is very similar to the 46% to 24% found by a Times poll conducted two months ago in April 2002.

Among blacks, opinion of the mayor is now almost split, with approval still running slightly behind. That he would pull a nearly split rating in that group may indicate that some political healing has occurred and it is interesting to note that this survey was completed before Rev. Cecil “Chip” Murray and other African American city leaders announced that they will campaign against secession, which Mayor Hahn also adamantly opposes. Hahn’s approval among blacks in the city rose six percentage points from 33% last April to 39% in the current survey. Latinos are less supportive of the mayor than previously; among that group the mayor’s job approval dropped from 51% last April to 46% today. Over half of Asian Angelenos in the current survey gave him the thumbs up while fewer than one in six disagreed.

The affluent Westside has warmed toward Hahn to become the only area in which he rises above 50% approval among all residents. Last April, the Westside gave Hahn a somewhat lackluster approval rating of 42% to 23%. This survey found that his approval had risen twelve points to 54% while the proportion of those who disapprove has dropped to 19%. Registered voters living on the Westside who would vote against the secession of the San Fernando Valley outpoll those who would vote for it by twenty percentage points, and it is possible that approval of Hahn’s outspoken opposition to breaking the city apart has played a part in the area’s increased enthusiasm for the mayor.

Possibly also in reaction to the mayor’s stand against San Fernando Valley secession, his job approval has fallen slightly from 48% to 44% among residents living in the breakaway area. The Valley is the only area in Los Angeles in which more than half of voters say they would support the creation of an independent San Fernando Valley city. In the central region of the city, which includes Hollywood, 48% approve of his job performance while 21% do not. In the south, 40% of residents approve vs. 31% who do not.

Whatever impact Hahn’s stand on secession might be having on his job approval, very few voters in the city said that his opposition makes a difference in how they vote on either secession movement. Fewer than one in ten voters citywide said they were more likely to vote against secession as a result of Hahn’s opposition and only a handful said they were less likely to vote against it for that reason.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,790 respondents citywide, including 1,291 registered voters, by telephone June 20-28. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city of Los Angeles. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, registration and area of city. The margin of sampling error for the entire city and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.