Poll Analysis: Bush Support Drops in California as Iraq Polarizes Party Feeling

Is George W. Bush doing a good job as president? Californians split right down the middle in answer to that question, according to the most recent Los Angeles Times poll. The prospect of war has polarized state residents along ideological lines. Post-9/11 bipartisan enthusiasm for the president has all but disappeared in the wake of strong differences of opinion about Iraq. Californians feel that Bush has made his case against Iraq, but mirror the nation in their desire for the U.S. to pursue non-military solutions. Most want the U.S. to take military action only in accord with the United Nations Security Council.

President Bush

The 48% to 48% split in Bush’s job approval rating statewide shows the president reverting to low ratings more aligned with those the Times Poll measured in the state before the events of 9/11 sent support for the president through the roof. In a January 2002 Times Poll, three out of four state residents were enthusiastic about the president’s job performance, including two-thirds of Democrats and more than half of liberals. That was then. More recently, in a Times survey taken in September of last year, the enthusiasm was waning, although more than half of Californians (54%) at that time still approved of Bush’s job performance compared to 40% who did not.

Looking back at the months before the terror attacks, however, there was little support for the president in the state that went for Al Gore by 12 points in 2000. Only four in 10 state residents gave the president a positive rating in a Times Poll survey taken June of 2001. That survey coincided with the energy crisis which drained state coffers and forced residents to endure price spikes and the threat of blackouts. The Bush administration’s refusal to help California out of that crisis left a bad taste in many mouths and probably contributed to the plurality of presidential disapproval at that time. The 48% approval in this survey is higher, but not impressively higher, than he had at that time.

The situation with Iraq may be partly to blame for the drop in Bush’s approval in the current survey. By 50% to 47%, Californians are split, but tending toward saying they don’t trust the President to make the right decision when it comes to handling the situation with Hussein and Iraq. More than half (52%) said they don’t approve of how he’s handling the situation now while 45% said they do. Four in 10 said they strongly disapprove of the president’s handling of Iraq.

These numbers are less positive than those found nationwide; for example, a Times poll of the nation taken last month found six in 10 Americans saying the president is doing a good job when it comes to Iraq, and 55% who said they do trust him to make the right decisions.

War and the Threat of War

Californians, like the rest of the nation, view war with Iraq as inevitable—nearly seven in 10 said they expect it to happen. Just under six in 10 felt strongly about that and only 26% disagreed. Nationwide last month, the numbers were similar—73% said it was inevitable and 22% disagreed with that assessment. A majority of state residents would prefer to see non-military solutions to the problem of Iraq, but if military action must take place, they prefer it not be unilateral, sentiments which also mirror the nation last month. The survey proposed non-military solutions such as allowing Hussein to go into exile, continuing weapons inspections, and waiting for U.N. Security Council approval before acting. All met with majority approval.

The Times Poll found particularly strong support last month among all Americans for the U.S. to launch military action only with the full backing of the U.N., and there is little difference in the findings on that among state residents today. More than six in 10 Californians would not support the U.S. taking unilateral action against Iraq. The national survey last month found American support for action alongside allies such as Great Britain dropping, and in California, the citizenry is split against such action—46% would support it while 49% would not. State Democrats in particular oppose going to war with only a few allies (by 69% to 27%) if the U.N. does not approve, and just under three in four want the United States to take military action only with the accord of the United Nations.

When asked if the U.S. should give weapons inspectors more time to do their work in Iraq—as requested by some members of the permanent security council such as France, China and Russia—57% said the inspections should be allowed to continue. One-quarter said we should act now, 13% said the U.S. should take no action at all. Another popular alternative is for Hussein to leave Iraq and go into exile in lieu of war. More than six in 10 supported allowing the Iraqi leader to choose exile as a way to avoid military action against Iraq, compared with under three in 10 who did not.

That is not to say that a majority of Californians would not rally and support Bush’s decision if he decided to launch a ground attack. By 53% to 43%, state residents said they would support such a decision. Nationwide last month, support was 57% to 38%. However, the feeling is not unanimous by any means and it splits along party lines.

Making the Case Against Iraq

The Bush administration has so far chosen to work through the U.N. Security Council in an attempt to gain international support for military action against Iraq by making the case that Hussein is in violation of U.N. resolutions, has ties to Al Qaeda terrorists, and is actively working to deceive weapons inspectors. So far, the U.S. has succeeded in convincing only a handful of permanent member countries such as Great Britain and Spain, while others such as France and Germany maintain that the U.S. has not proved its case and have vowed to block a U.N. resolution for war.

If international success is in doubt, has the Bush administration succeeded in convincing the Americans back home? The survey found that Golden State residents believe Bush has adequately proved that Iraq failed to comply with U.N. resolutions, is actively working to deceive weapons inspectors, and has weapons of mass destruction. A smaller majority agree that the president has proven that Iraq has close ties with Al Qaeda. Opinion on these matters divides along party and to a lesser extent, racial and ethnic lines.

By 57% to 36% state residents overall agreed that the Bush administration has proven that Iraq is in violation of U.N. agreements; by 66% to 30% that Hussein has weapons of mass destruction; and by 54% to 38% that there are direct links between the Arab state and the terrorist organization Al Qaeda.

Party, Ideology, Race/Ethnicity and Gender

While a majority of Democrats did not give Bush a positive rating in the September 2002 survey, his job approval was nearly twice as high among that group at 35% at that time than it is in the current survey where it has dropped to under two in 10. Two-thirds of state Democrats said they strongly disapprove of the president’s handling of Saddam Hussein and Iraq, compared to six in 10 Republicans who strongly approve.

More than half (55%) of white residents approved of the job President Bush is doing (42% disapproved), compared to only 29% of blacks (65% disapproved), and 46% of Latinos (50% disapproved).

Republicans gave the president high marks across the board—eight in 10 approved of his job performance, a similar proportion approved of his handling of Iraq as well as said they trust him to make the right decisions about possible war.

Only three in 10 Democrats and the same proportion of liberals said they would support ground attacks while around two out of three would oppose. State Republicans, on the other hand, are much more hawkish when it comes to the U.S. stance against Iraq. Eight in 10 support the use of ground troops, six in 10 disagree that the U.S. should only take action with the support of the United Nations. More than three out of four would support going to war against Iraq with the support of a few allies, even if the U.N. disapproves. Bush’s bipartisan popularity after 9/11 has all but disappeared.

Almost three out of four self-described liberal Democrats disagree that Bush has made the case that Iraq is in violation of its agreements, while moderate Democrats tend to agree—splitting 47% to 43%. More than eight in 10 Republicans say the president has made the case. African Americans disagree by a 20-percentage-point margin of 56% to 36%, while almost twice as many whites agree than disagree and Latinos break 54% to 34% in favor of the president’s case.

When it comes to proving a link with Al Qaeda, there is no racial or ethnic division whatsoever, but seven in 10 liberal Democrats disagree that the connection has been adequately proven, compared to moderate Democrats who split 45% to 47%, while three out of four state GOP members say they are convinced.

Women, more so than men, are wary of Bush, and of war. More than half of men approve of the job the president is doing, compared to 52% of women who do not. Fifty-two percent of men approve of Bush’s handling of Iraq, compared to 59% of women who do not. Fifty-four percent of men trust Bush to make the right decisions about war, 57% of women do not.

Women would also oppose if Bush decides to use ground troops in Iraq by 50% to 45%, and by 66% to 28% say the U.S. should not act alone against Iraq, agreeing slightly more vigorously than men who break 57% to 39%. Men would, however, support the U.S. going to war with just a few allies by 55% to 41%, while women would oppose such a move by 58% to 36%.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,300 adults statewide by telephone Feb. 27–March 3. The margin of sampling error for the overall state sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Telephone numbers were selected from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques allowed both listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.