Obama’s veepstakes
Spend a little time with Barack Obama on his wide-open vice president hunt. There are plenty of plausible candidates, and the eventual choice could easily be somebody nobody is talking about. Why the unpredictability? In part, it's because a veep search usually focuses on the runner-up in the primary, but in this case almost nobody believes the runner-up will get chosen.
But the main reason is that Obama is an unconventional candidate. He has novel strengths -- enormous appeal to the young, African Americans and some crossover Republicans -- and he also has potential weaknesses with usually solid Democratic Party constituencies: white blue-collar Democrats, women and Jews.
FOR THE RECORD:
Veep list: An Op-Ed chart comparing possible Democratic vice presidential candidates described Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) as a global-warming denier. He does not deny global warming. The photo labeled as Hagel was of Mike Johanns, Republican candidate for the Senate in Nebraska. —
So Obama has to decide: A veep who fills in a weakness (like Joe Biden) or one who accentuates a strength (like Michael Bloomberg)? To make things trickier, the veep candidates with the biggest upside also carry the biggest risk.
| Appeals to | Alienates | Risk factor | Bottom line | |
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton D-New York | Older white women who dislike Obama but don't despise him | Independents, Republicans, crossovers, misogynists | Husband Bill buck-raking, possibly still tomcatting | Cold day in hell |
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius D-Kansas | Women who aren't Clinton die-hards | Clinton die-hards who believe that any non-Hillary woman is a slap in the face | No foreign policy experience, so-so public speaker | Non-Clinton-supporting feminists probably aren't a big enough constituency |
Sen. Jack Reed D-Rhode Island | Veterans, Catholics, intellectuals, foreign policy voters | Moderates? (Reed is liberal) | Low he's a former Army Ranger and highly respected foreign policy expert | Not a bipartisan pick but lots of military/foreign policy cred; combines the demeanor of a professor with the name of an action hero |
Sen. Joe Biden D-Delaware | White men, security moms, foreign policy/experience voters, fans of the verbally incontinent | Indian Americans ("You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.") | Vetted, respected, but gaffe prone (see previous) | Odds-on favorite; would make a strong foreign policy spokesman |
Sen. Chuck Hagel R-Nebraska | Veterans, crossover Republicans, bipartisanship buffs | Israel supporters, low-information voters who don't want a 19th century German philosopher a heartbeat away from the presidency | How does Obama run with a right-wing Republican who disagrees with him on nearly everything? | Would be very tricky what if Obama dies and an anti-abortion, tax-cuts-for-the-rich-loving, global-warming skeptic is suddenly president? |
Gov. Tim Kaine D-Virginia | Virginians (or so it's claimed), Catholics | Nobody | No foreign policy experience, short resume | First-term governor who won on former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner's coattails a meh candidate |
Sen. Claire McCaskill D-Missouri | See Kathleen Sebelius | See Kathleen Sebelius | Like Obama, a first-term senator | See Kathleen Sebelius |
Sen. Jim Webb D-Virginia | Veterans, Virginians, Scots-Irish, angry white men, crossover Republicans, Southern Civil War buffs | Women, plutocrats who are ripping off the common man | Short-tempered, lone-wolf type | High-risk, high-reward choice |
Former Sen. Sam Nunn D-Georgia | Georgians, moderates, conservatives, Beltway establishment types, white males in need of reassurance | Gays, liberals | Everything Nunn has ever done in this life has been about minimizing risk | Expert on nuclear proliferation, could put Georgia into play |
Sen. Evan Bayh D-Indiana | Clinton supporters, moderates, insomniacs | Nobody | So un-risky that his selection would create the risk of a backlash from a bored and disappointed press corps | Low-risk, low-reward choice |
Gov. Bill Richardson D-New Mexico | New Mexicans, Old Mexicans, goatee aficionados, goofballs | Nativists | Surprisingly high Richardson is gaffe-prone and less serious than his reputation suggests | Better on paper than in reality |
Former Sen. Tom Daschle D-South Dakota | White males | Nobody | Working as a lobbyist, which complicates Obama's anti-Washington theme | Better candidate for chief of staff |
Gov. Brian Schweitzer D-Montana | Downscale whites, gun owners, populists | Short career in tiny state = few enemies | No foreign-policy expierence, first-term governor | Jim Webb lite? |
Mayor Michael Bloomberg I-New York City | Jews, upscale independents, moderate Republicans, the vertically challenged | Populists | Little foreign policy experience, on GOP VP lists too, black guy + wealthy Jewish New Yorker might freak out Middle America | Could pour huge sums into campaign; like Webb, huge upside plus huge downside |
Former Vice President Al Gore D-Tennessee | Democratic partisans, intellectuals | Republican partisans, oil, coal and auto industries | Steps on Obama's "let's not argue about the past" appeal | Has ruled out a run but might be a good way to consolidate the Democratic base |
Sen. Olympia Snowe R-Maine | Women, independents, moderate Republicans | Misogynists, Clinton die-hards | Black guy + woman = too much change? | Nobody's discussing Snowe; who knows if she'd take it; but she brings a lot to the table |
Jonathan Chait, a contributing editor to Opinion and a senior editor at the New Republic, is the author of "The Big Con: The True Story of How Washington Got Hoodwinked and Hijacked by Crackpot Economics."