Poll Analysis: Hahn Takes a Slim Lead in Race for L.A. Mayor

     With one week to go before the mayoral election, James Hahn and Antonio Villaraigosa are in a tight race. Hahn holds a 47% to 40% advantage with 13% undecided among voters considered most likely to turn out, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Candidates Shoring Up Their Voters     Both candidates realized coming out of the April primary that they must woo the voters that Steve Soboroff and Joel Wachs were able to attract. That is, the San Fernando Valley voters, moderate and conservative voters, white voters and the Jewish voters. Whichever candidate could sway these voters would have the better chance at becoming the next mayor of Los Angeles.
     Hahn has lived up to the conventional wisdom that a more centrist candidate would prevail-- moderates and conservatives make up a majority of the electorate, as do a combined electorate of white and black voters. Hahn has majorities of Republicans, moderate and conservative likely voters supporting his candidacy, as well as likely voters living in the San Fernando Valley. The Valley represents about two-fifths of the electorate. In the April primary, 18% of San Fernando Valley voters voted for Hahn, 23% for Villaraigosa, 30% for Soboroff and 15% for Wachs. Hahn has also shored up his core base of black voters, those voters living in the southern part of the city, older voters (45 and over) and the less educated.

     • 52% of San Fernando Valley voters support Hahn
     • 53% of white San Fernando Valley voters
     • 63% of voters living in the southern part of the city
     • 47% of white voters
     • 74% of black voters (19% will vote for Villaraigosa)
     • 57% of self-described moderates and 52% of self-described conservatives
     • 46% of voters 45-64 year old; 62% of voters 65 and over
     • 49% of voters with a high school degree or less; 56% of voters with some college

     Villaraigosa, on the other hand, is having a tougher job at reaching these swing voters and is being perceived as a liberal Democrat. In that vein, he does well among the Westside voters, white liberals and liberal Democrats as well as the younger cohorts (18-44 years old). His core base of Latino voters are still remaining loyal to the candidate. The Jewish voters are marginally voting for Villaraigosa.
     • 46% of Westside voters remain loyal to Villaraigosa
     • 50% of White Westside voters
     • 58% of voters living in the central part of the city (including the east side)
     • 57% of Latino voters (27% will vote for Hahn, still 15% are undecided)
     • 52% of self-described liberal voters
     • 55% of liberal Democratic voters
     • 55% of voters 18-44 years old
     • 46% of voters who are highly educated (college degree or more)
     • 45% of Jewish voters (42% for Hahn)

     Voters who are union members are virtually split. However, labor unions went to work campaigning for both candidates, in earnest, the last week of the election, as was evident in the April primary. In the April Times' exit poll, union members were more supportive of Villaraigosa than Hahn (39% vs. 28%).
     Voter support is solid among each of the candidate's supporters - more than 4 out of 5 of each candidate's voters say they are certain of their vote. But when asked, "Are you voting for your candidate because you like him or because he is the lesser of two evils?" the results are somewhat different. Among the 63% who like their candidate, 49% support Hahn and 51% are loyal to Villaraigosa. However, of the third who are voting because their candidate is the lesser of two evils-- 64% are voting for Hahn, while only 35% are voting for his opponent. Another way to look at this is that 7 in ten of Villaraigosa's voters are voting for him because they like him while only 58% of Hahn's voters say they like him.

Endorsements     It appears that Mayor Richard Riordan's endorsement of Villaraigosa does not seem to have had an effect. The electorate who voted for Riordan in his bid for mayor in 1993 and 1997 respectively are now supporting Hahn in his quest to become mayor. In a question asking voters if Riordan's endorsement will make them more or less likely to vote for the former state legislator, more than two-thirds say it would have no effect on their vote, while 17% say they would be more likely and 13% say they would be less likely. Similar results were found when asked if the endorsement of Hahn by the police protective league would have any affect on the voters' support of him. Almost seven out of 10 voters say that the endorsement would have no effect, but 21% thought it would make them more likely to vote for the city attorney, while 11% say it would make them less likely.

Opinions About the Candidates     Hahn: Two-thirds of voters have a favorable impression of Hahn, 23% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 10% have no opinion. When the voters were asked why they had a favorable opinion, they mentioned:
     • experience in government, 30%
     • like his Dad, 23%
     • has done a good job as city attorney, 16%
     • honest, 14%

     His father's name and legacy, though, is a two-edged sword. The voters who had an unfavorable opinion of the city attorney, cited:

     • leans on his father's name, 16% (plus 1% don't like his Dad)
     • not a strong leader, 11%
     • conservative, 9%

     Villaraigosa: Nearly three out of five (58%) voters have a favorable opinion of Villaraigosa, 28% unfavorable and 14% not sure. Of those who had a favorable opinion of the former Assemblyman, they mentioned:

     • his experience in state government/Assemblyman, 14%
     • coalition builder, 13%
     • strong leadership qualities, 12%
     • stand on the issues in general, 11%
     • dynamic, 11%

     And of the voters who had an unfavorable impression, they most cited were:

     • don't trust him/doesn't have integrity, 18%
     • Vignali pardon, 12%
     • Too liberal, 11%
     • Beholden to special interest, 11%
     • No experience in city government, 11%

     Hahn's campaign has been staying on message - that Villaraigosa is a candidate that cannot be trusted and that he is soft on crime. His ads and campaign strategy seem to be effective. For example, the top reason why voters have an unfavorable opinion of Villaraigosa is trust. When asked in a separate question: "Do you think Hahn/Villaraigosa has the honesty and integrity to serve as mayor of Los Angeles?" More than seven out of 10 voters say Hahn has that virtue, while 55% of voters believe that about the former legislator. (A quarter think Villaraigosa is not trustworthy, while 16% think that about Hahn.) When asked which candidate would do the better job holding down crime, 53% of voters think Hahn would be the better candidate, while only 19% named Villaraigosa. Thirteen percent thought both candidates could do the job.
     Nearly half of the voters also thought that Hahn is the candidate that would do a better job of bringing prosperity to the city, while 25% thought Villaraigosa. Hahn also wins a plurality of voters' support as the candidate that understands the needs of the city. Nearly half (47%) believe Hahn understands the city, while 29% believe that about his opponent. Not surprising is that 43% of voters think Villaraigosa would be the candidate better able to handle race relations. He is campaigning as a coalition builder, and voters see him in that light. The former State Assembly speaker edges out his opponent as the candidate that would do a better job improving the city's public schools (38% for Villaraigosa vs. 33% for Hahn) Education is a cornerstone of Villaraigosa's campaign and has ads on TV addressing that subject. Voters feel that both candidates have strong leadership qualities. Fifty-nine percent of voters say that Hahn is a strong leader and 53% say that about Villaraigosa. Both candidates have about a quarter each of the voters saying they are not strong leaders.

Economy     With the volatile stock market and the many layoffs in and around the state and country, Los Angelenos' are somewhat divided in their opinions about the economy. Nearly half (46%) of the voters think the city is moving in the right direction, while 39% think it is seriously off on the wrong track. This is a slight turnaround from the last Times Poll in April (before the primary), when 40% of voters said the city was moving in the right direction and 44% said it was off on the wrong track. And among those who feel the city is heading off on the wrong track, 53% to 34% are voting for Hahn. Among voters who feel the city is moving in the right direction, the vote is split (42% for Hahn, 45% for Villaraigosa).
     Seven in ten voters, however, think it is likely the city could face an economic recession sometime in the next year, while 27% don't believe that will happen. Again, Hahn benefits from the voters who have a more pessimistic outlook, but also has support from those who say that isn't likely. Of those who say a recession is likely, 46% support Hahn compared to 39% for Villaraigosa; and of those who say it isn't likely to happen, Hahn receives 50% of the vote vs. 43% for Villaraigosa.

Immigration and Race     More than 4 out of 5 voters don't think it is important that the next mayor should be of the same ethnic or racial groups as they are, 15% think it is important. But, if the voters think it is important, Villaraigosa gets the edge, 52% vs. 46%. Almost 3 out of 10 Latino voters think it is important (more than other racial or ethnic groups).
     Voters are split whether the growing immigrant population in Los Angeles is a good or a bad thing for the city. Thirty-seven percent think the growing immigrant population is a good thing, 40% say it is a bad thing and 12% say it has no effect on the city either way. Of those who say it is a good thing for the city, Villaraigosa is their candidate (52% to 38% for Hahn). Of those who say it is a bad thing for the city, Hahn gets the nod of 57% of the voters, compared to 29% for Villaraigosa. And if the voters think the growing immigrant population has no effect, Hahn receives 51% of the vote, compared to 37% for Villaraigosa.
     The poll also asked if Hahn/Villaraigosa will pay too much or too little attention to minorities or just about the right amount.

     • Hahn: 7% say he will pay too much attention, 61% the right amount and 19% not enough.
     • Villaraigosa: 21% say he will pay too much attention, 59% the right amount and 6% not enough. (Among voters who say Villaraigosa will pay too much attention to minorities, 75% of the them will vote for Hahn.)

The City Attorney Race     City Councilman Mike Feuer holds a nine point lead in the runoff election for the office of City Attorney over Deputy Mayor Rocky Delgadillo, but neither candidate has yet gained more than 50% support among likely voters and a large proportion of voters remain undecided.The survey found Feuer at 40% among all likely voters if the race were held today, while 31% favored Delgadillo. However, nearly 3 in ten voters (29%) remain undecided which leaves plenty of room for either candidate to move into the lead before election day.
     When asked what they considered to be the most important quality for the next city attorney to have, nearly four in ten (37%) likely voters cited the ability to gain the support of community leaders and civic groups as their first or second choice. Thirteen percent said that the next city attorney should be a good administrator, and 14% each cited honesty or objectivity as their primary or secondary requirement. Nearly identical proportions of supporters of both candidates agreed on these qualities as being the most important.

Candidate Impressions     Further indication that the race is still very fluid was found in the high proportion of likely voters who said they don't know enough about the candidates to express an opinion, favorable or otherwise.
     For Feuer, nearly half of all voters (including just over two in 10 of Feuer's own supporters) said they didn't know enough about him to say whether their impression was good or bad. Overall, 38% had a very or somewhat favorable impression of the City Councilman, while 11% had a very or somewhat unfavorable one.
     Voters were even less familiar with Delgadillo's record-- 58% said they didn't know enough to say (including 28% of Delgadillo voters) while 29% of voters overall said they have a favorable impression of the Deputy Mayor, and 7% said they had an unfavorable one.

Voting Demographics     The coalitions of voters who supported Delgadillo and Feuer last April in large enough numbers to qualify them for a place in the runoff election on June 5th are still largely lined up behind the two candidates.
     A Los Angeles Times exit poll of the April election found Feuer voters to be mostly Democrat, liberal, white and living in the San Fernando Valley or on the Westside. Delgadillo voters were Latino, Republican, conservative, living in the southern, and to a lesser extent, the eastern/central portions of the city.
     The current survey found that most of Feuer's areas of strength (with the exception of the Westside which is now split 31% to 31%) have not eroded among likely voters. He continues to find at least pluralities of support among Democrats (44% to 27%), liberals (50% to 24%), whites (43% to 28%) and those living in the San Fernando Valley (45% to 32%).
     Similarly, Delgadillo's support continues to be highest among Republicans (41% to 30%) and conservatives (43% to 29%). However, Delgadillo's support has slipped among likely Latinos, who are closely splitting their votes between the two candidates at this time-- 40% for Delgadillo vs. 37% who indicated Feuer. Voters in the south city are also split 29% for Delgadillo to 31% for Feuer.
     Black voters were split between the two candidates in the previous election but are leaning slightly toward Delgadillo today-- 37% to 32% (which is still within the margin of sampling error.)

Undecided Voters Could Tip the Scales     A look at the nearly three in ten likely voters who remain undecided about their vote in the City Attorney race at this time shows that candidate recognition is still low despite two rounds of campaigning this year. Seven in ten undecideds in this race did not know enough about the two candidates to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion of either one.Likely voters in the west and south sides of the city were slightly more inclined to be still sitting on the fence. If they end up voting like their neighbors, their votes could be split between the two candidates, with no appreciable net gain for either candidate.
     Moderate likely voters and those between the ages of 30 and 44 are also still more likely to be making up their minds and those voters tend to look favorably at Feuer.But there are still possibilities for Delgadillo as well. Nearly one quarter (23% )of Latino likely voters are still undecided, for example. If the same sort of late vote coalescence that has been seen in other city and state races occurs in this election, Delgadillo might well be the beneficiary-- 64% of Latinos cast their votes for Delgadillo in the general election in April 2001.
     But candidate recognition seems to be the key to this low-profile race. With such a high proportion of voters unaware of either candidate, the door to victory might just be opened by whoever can spend the most money on last minute advertisements which will get their name into voter's minds.

How the Poll Was Conducted     The Times Poll contacted 1,628 registered voters in the city of Los Angeles, including 857 likely voters, by telephone May 22-27. Likely voters were derived by assigning a likely voter score to questions asked of respondents about their voting history, intention to vote, interest in the election and whether they are a first-time voter. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city of Los Angeles. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Since the Poll doesn't analyze any subgroup with fewer than 100 respondents, 402 African Americans and 624 Latinos were oversampled to achieve that result in the likely voter category. They were then weighted to their population size within the city. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Asians were interviewed as part of the overall sample, but there were not enough to break out as a separate subgroup.