Poll Analysis: Gore Leads in California, Gets Strong Boost From Women Voters

      With a whopping 54 electoral votes, the highest of any state, California is almost necessary to any presidential candidate if he is to win the election. In fact, no candidate has won the election without California since 1976. The good news for Al Gore is that he currently holds a sturdy seven point lead over George W. Bush here in California, and strengthens this lead to a massive 20 points among women. Bush, however, leads Gore among men by nine percentage points.
      Both Gore and Bush have shored up their own party members, particularly critical for Gore as he has been less successful in luring Democrats than Bush has with Republicans on a national level. Correspondingly, each candidate has nearly all of his voters saying they are certain to vote for him come November 7th.
      In other good news for Gore, nearly two-thirds of likely California voters have a favorable opinion of him, while less than half have a favorable opinion of Bush.
      However, while Gore does benefit from the gender gap, he does trail among men even in a state that is so favorable toward him. Additionally, while likely voters say nearly every attribute tested including honest, strong leader and shares my values applies more to Gore than to Bush, Bush nonetheless gets a majority of likely voters saying they believe he is more personally likeable than Gore.

The Horserace      According to the most recent Los Angeles Times poll, conducted from October 19th through October 23rd, Gore leads Bush by seven points among likely voters in California:
         48% of likely voters said they are planning to vote for Gore in the upcoming election
         41% are planning to vote for Bush

      Ralph Nader, the Green party candidate, received 5% of the vote, and Pat Buchanan, the Reform party candidate, got just 1% of the vote. Four percent of likely voters were undecided at the time the poll was conducted.
      Both leading candidates have secured more than eight in 10 of their own party‚s voters, and in a change from national trends, Gore is receiving somewhat more of the self-identified conservative vote (15%) than Bush is the liberal vote (9%). Independents lean toward Gore, and self-identified moderates support Gore over Bush by more than two to one (60% to Bush‚s 26%).
      However, the news is not all disheartening for Bush in this coveted state: He edges out Gore for a majority of the white vote (46% to Gore‚s 43%) and a full quarter of the Latino vote (26%), a percentage similar to what his father received here in 1992 (27%), and a little bit higher than Dole‚s 18% in 1996.
      In fact, in 1996, Clinton received 75% of the Latino vote in California; should the trends of this poll continue, Gore will receive just 58% of the Latino vote. Perhaps more significantly, Gore is getting just over three-quarters of former Clinton voters, a base he should have no problem winning in these economic good times.
      As he does on a national level, Bush is getting the married vote (49% to Gore‚s 40%). However, married women, who nationally have been leaning toward Bush, lean toward Gore in California (47% to Bush‚s 43%).
      In California, Gore is benefiting from the vast gender gap, enjoying a 20 point lead among women voters. At the same time, while Bush leads Gore among men by nine points, he leads Gore by 21 points among married men (Gore leads Bush by just four points among single men). More strikingly, single women support Gore by more than three to one over Bush (72% to Bush‚s 22%).
      Bush has also selected a running mate who has impacted his voters slightly more than Gore‚s choice did his voters:
          39% of Bush voters are more likely to vote for him because of his selection of Dick Cheney as his running mate (5% are less likely, 56% say the selection has no impact)
         34% of Gore voters are more likely to vote for him because of his selection of Joe Lieberman (3% are less likely, 62% say the choice has no impact on their vote)

      Bush‚s vice presidential selection is also slightly more polarizing than Gore‚s choice; while nearly a quarter of Democrats (23%) say that the selection of Cheney made them less likely to vote for Bush, just 11% of Republicans say the Lieberman selection made them less likely to vote for Gore.

Candidate Impressions and Handling of Issues       Nationally, the Los Angeles Times poll has found that both candidates have similar relatively high favorability ratings, as do their vice presidential running mates. Here in California, Gore is much more heavily favored than Bush:
         62% are favorable to Gore (37% are unfavorable)
         46% are favorable to Bush (51% are unfavorable)

      Similar trends hold true for the vice presidential candidates, with 55% favorable toward Cheney (30% unfavorable) and 63% favorable toward Lieberman (18% unfavorable).
      California likely voters overwhelmingly think Gore has the experience and intelligence to be president, has detailed what he hopes to accomplish, and will stick to his word more than they believe any of these statements to be true about Bush:
          80% say Gore has the experience and intelligence to be president (47% believe Bush does)
          74% believe Gore has made it clear what he wants to accomplish (58% say Bush has)
          52% believe Gore can be trusted to keep his word (47% say Bush can)

      Perhaps more striking is that more than four out of 10 (44%) California likely voters do not believe Bush has the intelligence and experience to be president of the United States (just 18% feel this way about Gore).
      When the poll tested a series of attributes ranging from cares about people like me to will be a strong leader for the country to has the honesty and integrity to serve as president, voters pick Gore over Bush as having that attribute apply to him. Only on the attribute of is personally likeable does Bush do better than Gore:
          42% of likely voters say this attribute applies more to Bush
         35% say it applies more to Gore

      As other Los Angeles Times polls have indicated, Gore‚s biggest strength is the perception that he is capable of handling a variety of issues. On every issue the poll tested except military defense, likely voters think Gore would do a better job handling that issue than Bush, and on has a better grasp of the issues in general, Gore leads by an overwhelming 35 points (61% to Bush‚s 26%). Additionally, while Bush beats Gore on handling military defense:
          76% say they would have confidence in Gore's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis (37% have a lot of confidence)
         57% have confidence in Bush‚s ability to deal with an international crisis (25% have a lot of confidence)

      When the Times‚ poll detailed the Gore and Bush proposals on Social Security, education and health care, and asked likely voters to choose which plan they would like to see enacted, voters opted for the Gore plan every time.
      However, the character issue continues to haunt Gore, even in this state where he maintains a strong lead over Bush and where his favorability ratings are far higher than they are nationally. While just 14% say they would have to feel comfortable with a candidate on a personal level in order to vote for him, another 18% say that they would need to feel comfortable with a candidate both personally and on the issues. That means that a full third of voters take a candidate‚s personality or character into consideration when voting:
         42% of Bush voters say that they would have to be comfortable with a candidate as a person, or comfortable with him personally and on the issues
          Just 23% of Gore voters feel this way.

How the Poll Was Conducted      The Times Poll contacted 1,304 registered voters statewide, including 852 voters most likely to vote, by telephone Oct. 19-23, 2000. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted.
      The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. The poll was conducted in English and Spanish.