Obama to call for a more rapid troop withdrawal from Afghanistan

President Obama is putting the final touches on an evening address in which he is expected to announce that 10,000 U.S. troops will come home from Afghanistan this year, a faster withdrawal than senior Pentagon officials had been hoping for.

U.S. diplomats have been informed of the pace of the planned drawdown, which is likely to remove 33,000 troops -- the full number of the troop “surge” Obama ordered in 2009 -- by the end of next summer.

Obama is expected to argue that the U.S. and allied forces have made such progress in disrupting Al Qaeda that such a dramatic reduction in troop levels is merited, according to several officials familiar with the president’s decision.

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White House officials have emphasized in recent days that the president is not contemplating a change in strategy in Afghanistan. But analysts say a dramatic drawdown in troops within the coming year may necessitate such an adjustment, as the remaining military personnel are forced to focus more on fighting terrorism than on improving the conditions that give rise to insurgency.

In the past, dramatic withdrawal of troops has been accompanied by a spike in violence.

Another open question is whether the mission in Afghanistan is in fact succeeding, as the White House says that it is, or if success to date will continue with fewer troops on the ground.

The departure of the 33,000 surge troops will leave close to 70,000 remaining in the country.

As the tens of thousands of U.S. troops depart Afghanistan in the next year, the risk is that some areas of the south that have been cleared of insurgents will again fall under the control of Taliban fighters. Many areas in Helmand and Kandahar provinces are more secure now, but that is largely because of the presence of U.S. forces, which have blanketed many areas that were once Taliban strongholds.

Administration officials argue that Afghan army and police units will increasingly be able to assume responsibility for security, with assistance from remaining U.S. units. They note that 68,000 troops will remain after the draw-down next summer. And they are hopeful that peace talks with Taliban leaders will lessen the strength of the insurgency over the next year.

But some U.S. commanders worry that pulling out troops will only encourage Taliban leaders to bide their time, as they have repeatedly over during the nearly decade-long war. The risk that the south will again became a Taliban haven is heightened, these commanders say, because the U.S. intends to shift troops over the next year to eastern Afghanistan, where the insurgency remains potent.

Paul Richter contributed to this report from Washington.