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Arizona, overlooked in primary, could be November battleground

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Is Arizona in play?

While Republicans cast their ballots in today’s presidential primary, Democrats are casting a covetous eye on the Grand Canyon State, believing they have a realistic shot at winning here in November.

Publicly, Republicans scoff. Privately, they’re wary. Most are convinced the GOP -- regardless of its nominee--will hang onto the state, which has been fairly reliably Republican for decades. But it’s no sure thing, they say, on the order of Wyoming, Mississippi or Kansas.

The GOP holds the governor’s office, most statewide positions and both U.S. Senate seats and controls Arizona’s congressional delegation. Republicans also run both chambers of the state Legislature. That, along with Obama’s middling sub-50% approval rating, suggests the state should be well beyond the president’s reach.

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But the growth and increasing influence of the Latino population gives Democrats an opening, enhanced by Republicans’ hard-line stance on illegal immigration. Jan Brewer, the public face of those policies, has replaced Pete Wilson as the Republican governor whom Latinos activists love to hate.

Wilson is long gone from office, but his political impact lives on. California became a deep blue state in part because of increased Latino turnout arising from anger over Proposition 187, the 1994 anti-illegal-immigration initiative that Wilson rode to reelection.

Even without that spur, Nevada and Colorado have become presidential swing states, thanks to the growing number of Latinos and, more importantly, increased Latino political activism.

Arizona is undergoing a similar demographic and political shift. (As is Texas, which will likely be a swing state in presidential politics by 2020 at the latest.)

Of course, raw numbers don’t win elections. The economy remains the most important issue, here as elsewhere. Arizona ranks third nationwide in the number of foreclosures and unemployment is a worrisome 8.7%.

Things have got to be moving in the right direction for Obama to stand a real shot at winning, analysts in both parties agree. (Also keep an eye on the gas pumps; Phoenix-area residents woke Tuesday to a front-page photo in the Arizona Republic highlighting $4-a-gallon prices.)

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The Obama administration has been fighting Arizona over its tough -- and politically popular -- crackdown on illegal immigration, with the case now pending before the U.S. Supreme Court. The ruling--and the reaction--could determine whether immigration comes roaring back as a campaign issue, and which side it helps or hurts.

Another thing to watch is the race for Arizona’s open U.S. Senate seat.

In a case of reverse coattails, Obama could benefit from the candidacy of former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who will likely face Rep. Jeff Flake in November. Carmona is an independent-turned-Democrat and Republicans say his tough-guy background -- he is a Purple Heart Vietnam vet and former Pima County sheriff’s SWAT team leader -- could make him a formidable contender.

The Obama team is convinced they could have won Arizona four years ago, if home-state Sen. John McCain had not been the GOP nominee.

Much has obviously changed since then, with Obama having to fight to hang onto states, such as Virginia and North Carolina, that he carried in 2008. But Obama strategists believe Arizona gives them a shot at expanding their map and are working to, at the very least, make sure Republicans cannot take the state for granted.

The campaign has already opened offices in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff. Tellingly, a fourth is coming soon in Glendale, which has the third-highest Latino population in the state.

mark.barabak@latimes.com

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