Bernie Sanders is up in a new Iowa poll

Welcome to Trail Guide, your host through the wilds of the 2016 presidential campaign. It’s Tuesday, Jan. 12, and here’s what we’re talking about:

Bernie Sanders is up in a new Iowa poll as the Feb.1 caucuses approach
Jeb Bush’s super PAC is spending a lot of money on advertising, but it’s not helping boost his poll numbers
Joe Biden says Sanders has credibility when it comes to talking about income inequality
The Republican debate lineup for this week is set, and Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina did not make the cut
Paul has said he will not participate in the undercard debate; instead he’ll make his pitch to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire

Jan. 12, 2016

Bernie Sanders takes lead in new Iowa poll

By Chris Megerian

A new poll has Bernie Sanders leading in Iowa, threatening Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the country’s first presidential nominating contest Feb. 1.

The poll, released by Quinnipiac University on Tuesday, showed Sanders with 49% support among likely Democratic caucus participants. Clinton had 44% support.

The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The results represent a significant swing from one month ago, when the same poll had Clinton leading, 51% to 40%.

More Iowa voters are also saying they’ve made up their minds on whom they’ll support in the caucuses. Just 20% said they could change their allegiance, down from 33% last month.