Super Tuesday: Mitt Romney could put GOP race out of reach

Mitt Romney can’t clinch the GOP nomination on this Super Tuesday. But the former Massachusetts governor, with momentum building after a narrow but much-needed win in Michigan last week, can effectively put the contest out of reach with a strong showing on what is the busiest day yet in the 2012 presidential race.

It’s likely that nearly as many votes will be cast today as have been cast in the entire GOP nominating contest to date. There are certainly more delegates at stake today -- 437 -- than the 300-plus awarded in the earliest-voting states.

Of the 10 states holding primaries and caucuses today, the marquee contest is in Ohio. The final round of polling there shows the race is a statistical tie between Romney and his lead challenger, Rick Santorum.

As he made his closing argument Monday, Romney tried to return focus to the issues that have long dominated the GOP campaign: the economy and the size and scope of the federal government.

“During this campaign there has been discussion about all sorts of issues,” he said in Canton. “I keep bringing it back to more jobs, less debt and smaller government. That’s what my campaign is about.”

Santorum did not shy from the high stakes in Ohio, where he had led Romney by double digits in some polls as recently as mid-February. At a stop in Westerville, he said it was not quite “make or break,” but would “be a huge deal.”

Sixty-six delegates are at stake in Ohio. If the result is as close as polls indicate, Santorum and Romney may end up with a close split -- though the former Pennsylvania senator is at a disadvantage because he failed to file full delegate slates in three of the state’s 16 congressional districts.

But as was the case last week in Michigan, the statewide popular vote will be the headline of the night -- allowing either Romney to make the case he’s the presumptive nominee, or giving Santorum more time to make his case.

Looking elsewhere, Romney is well positioned to rack up a major delegate advantage in states such as Virginia, Massachusetts and Vermont. Tennessee is another state where Santorum had the advantage, but which is now trending toward Romney.

Newt Gingrich seems on a path to easily carry his home state of Georgia, setting up what his campaign sees as a “Southern strategy” he will continue next week when Republicans vote in Alabama and Mississippi.

Ron Paul, still the only candidate without a statewide victory, is hoping to pick up delegates in caucus states such as Idaho and North Dakota.

National polling indicates that Romney is beginning to consolidate his support, picking up segments of the Republican base that had long favored his rivals. It may be that after flirting with a long list of “anti-Romneys,” the party’s base is ready to “fall in line.” But Romney has been on the verge of locking up the race before only to stumble.

One thing seems certain -- no matter what the outcome, the field of four will likely stay at four. But President Obama’s campaign and national Democrats sense that Romney is now on an irreversible path to the GOP nomination, and have already come out swinging.

“In greater and greater numbers, voters are seeing that Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected,” DNC executive director Patrick Gaspard said in a new memo out this morning. “He has tried to buy his way to victory and has taken extreme and out-of-touch positions that will alienate general election voters.”

Here’s an updated primer on the Super Tuesday states, ranked according to the number of delegates at stake:

GEORGIA PRIMARY

Delegates at stake: 76

Polls Close: 7 p.m. EST

How it works: Thirty-four delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. The winner in each of the state’s 14 congressional districts will earn another two delegates, and the second-place finisher will win one, unless one candidate wins more than 50% in a district.

2008 result: In a close three-way race, Mike Huckabee won 34% of the vote, followed by John McCain with 32% and Romney with 30%.

2012 advantage: Gingrich. A CNN poll released Monday had him easily ahead of his rivals. But Romney, who was in second place, should pick up some delegates in suburban Atlanta congressional districts where he also performed well four years ago.

OHIO PRIMARY

Delegates at stake: 66

Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. EST

How it works: Fifteen delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If a candidate has more than 50%, though, he wins all 15. An additional three delegates will be awarded to the winner in each of the state’s 16 congressional districts.

In both cases, voters are electing delegates who have pledged to vote for a particular presidential candidate. Santorum, as mentioned earlier, did not file delegate lists in all of the congressional districts.

The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

2008 result: McCain easily defeated Huckabee, 60% to 31%.

2012 advantage: Ohio has seen more polling than any other state, and for good reason -- it’s a photo finish. Quinnipiac, CNN, Suffolk and Marist polls all showed a result within the margin of error. Romney’s financial and organizational might could be the difference.

TENNESSEE PRIMARY

Delegates at stake: 58

Polls Close: 8 p.m. EST

How it works: Twenty-eight delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. If one candidate has more than 66% of the vote, he wins all 28. In the nine congressional districts, a candidate will win all three delegates if he wins 66% of the vote. If the winner and runner-up both have between 20% and 66% of the vote, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up gets one. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

2008 result: Huckabee edged McCain, 34% to 32%, with Romney receiving 24% of the vote.

2012 advantage: Santorum seemed to have the edge here, but Romney’s momentum nationally is also showing up here. He also has the endorsement of the state’s new Republican governor, Bill Haslam, who campaigned with him this weekend. If Romney manages to win here, it’ll signal a big night for him overall.

VIRGINIA PRIMARY

Delegates at stake: 49

Polls Close: 7 p.m. EST

How it works: Thirteen delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving 15% of the vote. But because there are only two candidates on the ballot -- Romney and Paul -- it will likely be winner-take-all. Three delegates will also be awarded to the winner in each of the 11 congressional districts.

2008 result: McCain beat Huckabee, 50% to 41%.

2012 advantage: Romney, without question. Paul has done little to campaign here despite having a rare head-to-head opportunity with the party front-runner. It’s possible that Romney may get a clean sweep here unless Paul can pick up one or two congressional district wins.

OKLAHOMA PRIMARY

Delegates at stake: 43

Polls Close: 8 p.m. EST

How it works: Twenty-five delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate has more than 50%, in which case he wins all 25. In each of the state’s five congressional districts, three delegates will be awarded proportionally to candidates with 15% of the vote, unless, again, one has more than 50% of the vote in that district. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

2008 result: McCain edged Huckabee, 37% to 33%, while Romney had 25%.

2012 advantage: A Sooner Poll, conducted through mid-February, had Santorum leading Romney, 39% to 23%, with Gingrich in third at 18%. Romney picked up the endorsement of Sen. Tom Coburn this weekend, but the more conservative electorate here favors his rivals.

MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY

Delegates at stake: 41

Polls Close: 8 p.m. EST

How it works: Eleven delegates will be awarded proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the statewide vote. An additional three delegates will be awarded based on the vote in each of the state’s nine congressional districts, again proportionally to any candidate receiving more than 15% of the vote. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

2008 result: Favorite son Romney won the Super Tuesday contest with 51% of the vote, with eventual nominee McCain scoring a close second with 41%.

2012 advantage: Romney will celebrate in Boston tonight, but he’s hoping it’s about more than the expected win here.

IDAHO CAUCUSES

Delegates at stake: 32

Polls Close: 10 p.m. EST

How it works: According to the Idaho Republican Party, a secret vote will be held at each county caucus, lasting several rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated until one reaches 50%. County results will then be tabulated statewide, with 29 delegates awarded proportionally based on the final tallies. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

2008 result: Idaho held a primary in May 2008 that McCain won handily, 70% to 24%, over Paul.

2012 advantage: Unclear. This is Idaho’s first caucus, after having long chosen delegates through a late primary. Each of the candidates has spent time here.

NORTH DAKOTA CAUCUSES

Delegates at stake: 28

Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. EST

How it works: The caucuses will begin the process of allocating delegates to the national convention, but all 28 will remain unbound, meaning they can ultimately vote for whichever candidate they choose. But NBC reported this week that the delegates who will ultimately be elected will voluntarily pledge to apportion themselves based on the caucus result tonight.

2008 result: Romney won 36% of the delegates elected to the state convention, McCain won 23%, Paul 21% and Huckabee 20%.

2012 advantage: Unclear. All four candidates have spent time in the state, including Romney, who stopped there on Thursday. Gingrich has made energy policy crucial to his recent message, with North Dakota, a booming oil state, in mind. Paul performs better in caucus states and should do well here.

ALASKA DISTRICT CONVENTIONS

Delegates at stake: 27

Polls Close: Midnight EST

How it works: Twenty-four delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to candidates, based on the statewide vote, at individual district conventions. The other three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

2008 result: Romney won 44% of the state convention delegates elected, twice as many as second-place finisher Huckabee. Paul had 17%, and McCain, who ultimately tapped then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, got 15%.

2012 advantage: Unclear. Paul is the only candidate to have campaigned here. Romney sent one of his five sons.

VERMONT PRIMARY

Delegates at stake: 17

Polls Close: 7 p.m. EST

How they’re awarded: Eleven delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis to any candidate receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote, unless one candidate receives a majority. An additional three delegates will be allocated to the overall statewide winner. The final three delegates are the elected state party leaders.

2008 result: McCain easily defeated Huckabee, 72% to 14%.

2012 advantage: New England is Romney country, and he should win the lion’s share of delegates here.