Column: March Madness: Forget Villanova. Plaschke reveals his bracket and explains why he’s betting big on the Pac-12
Villanova’s Kris Jenkins makes the game-winning three-pointer against North Carolina in the 2016 NCAA Tournament final on April 4. Villanova is the No. 1 overall seed in the 2017 tournament.
What is the best college basketball team you’ve seen this year? The one team you’re willing to support at the risk of your office pool? Pick one. Pick your national champion. Start your bracket there. The true definition of March Madness is getting caught up in the first couple of rounds. You sweat over Xavier beating Maryland, or whether a No. 11 seed can beat a No. 6, or whether Michigan State could lose in the first round again. Yet in the big picture, those upsets are meaningless. The winner of the pool almost always correctly predicts the national champion, so make that your first selection and work backward. Be serious about the late rounds; have fun with the early ones.
Villanova‘s Jalen Brunson signals his teammates during the Big East tournament final against Creighton on March 11. (Frank Franklin II / Associated Press)
EAST REGIONAL
Everyone loves Villanova, from sharp-dressing Coach Jay Wright to the Philadelphia work ethic to the fact that Kris Jenkins, the kid who won last year’s title with a three-point buzzer beater, is still on the team. Well, forget Villanova. In the last 24 years there has been one repeat national champion, Florida, which was NBA-loaded. These Wildcats aren’t as talented as those Gators. These Wildcats have a tougher road and will eventually fold under the pressure. But do you know who loves that pressure? After enduring a season that included the suspension of a star, medical leave by the coach, and performances so lousy the players were banned from the locker room, Duke is back. Jayson Tatum will be a tournament star. You may hate Duke, but it will advance. Upset special: No. 13 East Tennessee State over No. 4 Florida because of two tournament truths: Underdogs with experience can steal games, and the Buccaneers start four seniors. Favorites who have lost key players to injuries can blow games, and Florida is without big man John Egbunu.
Oregon‘s Dillon Brooks gets past Oregon State‘s Kendal Manuel during a game on March 4. (Timothy J. Gonzalez / Associated Press)
MIDWEST REGIONAL
Kansas is more tough than talented, which means the Jayhawks are always playing on a tightrope, and a tumble is never far away. They were without suspended star Josh Jackson in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, but to blow a big lead and lose to Texas Christian? Iowa State knocks them out on the second weekend. Louisville is also tough and, like Kansas, good for a regional appearance. But the Cardinals’ big men are always in foul trouble and when their three-point shots aren’t falling, they fall. Oregon benefits from having several players back from a team that advanced to a regional final last year. And Chris Boucher, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last weekend, wasn’t one of the Ducks’ consistent impact players. Plus, they have the best big-shot player in this tournament, Dillon Brooks — just ask UCLA or California. For the upset, go with No. 11 Rhode Island over No. 6 Creighton, because the Rams are the better team and Danny Hurley, of the famous Hurley family, is smart enough to coach them out of the first round.
Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac defends against Duke’s Jayson Tatum during a game on Feb. 28. (Gerry Broome / Associated Press)
WEST REGIONAL
Nothing against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are deserving of the No. 1 seeding and so darn lovable you want to hug the big bearded dude who plays center. But they had only three highly rated wins this season against teams not named St. Mary’s. One of them came at Staples Center against an Arizona team that did not have suspended Allonzo Trier, now the Wildcats’ best player. Gonzaga and Arizona could meet in the regional final, but Gonzaga won’t get that far. The Bulldogs will be eliminated by Notre Dame, which has made consecutive trips to regional finals. Arizona is the pick here because it played more pressure games in Las Vegas last weekend than Gonzaga did all season. Arizona then downs Notre Dame to advance to the Final Four because it is more athletic and deeper than the Fighting Irish. There will be least two upsets in this region that aren’t really upsets: No. 11 Xavier will defeat No. 6 Maryland. And, with apologies to weeping sportswriters across the country, the first-ever tournament appearance for journalism factory Northwestern will be brief, the No. 8 Wildcats falling to another journalism cradle, No. 9 Vanderbilt.
UCLA guard Lonzo Ball directs traffic during a Pac-12 tournament quarterfinal game against USC on March 9. (Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
SOUTH REGIONAL
UCLA can defeat Kentucky for a second time this season. And yes, the Bruins could beat a North Carolina team that can be run into the ground — witness its weekend loss to Duke. But can UCLA beat both Kentucky and North Carolina in three days at a Memphis arena dominated by Wildcats and Tar Heels fans? Has any team in tournament history ever been asked to knock off two legendary programs under such hostile conditions? The task will be too much even for college basketball’s most exciting team, even if Lonzo Ball’s thumb is sound and the Bruins regain a shooting touch that was lost in Las Vegas. UCLA should win its first two games and defeat an over-hyped Kentucky team again, but it seems unlikely that it can get past North Carolina, especially since the Tar Heels return the core of a group that lost last year’s national title game in the final second. The biggest upset comes out of obligation. In 28 of the last 32 years, at least one No. 5 has defeated a No. 12. The best chance for that this year is Middle Tennessee State, which knocked off Michigan State in the first round last year and should win against inexperienced Minnesota.
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Bill Plaschke, an L.A. Times sports columnist since 1996, is a member of the National Sports Media Hall of Fame and California Sports Hall of Fame. He has been named national Sports Columnist of the Year nine times by the Associated Press, and twice by the Society of Professional Journalists and National Headliner Awards. He is the author of six books, including a collection of his columns entitled “Plaschke: Good Sports, Spoilsports, Foul Balls and Oddballs.” Plaschke is also a panelist on the popular ESPN daily talk show, “Around the Horn.” He is in the national Big Brothers/Big Sisters Alumni Hall of Fame and has been named Man of the Year by the Los Angeles Big Brothers/Big Sisters as well as receiving a Pursuit of Justice Award from the California Women’s Law Center. Plaschke has appeared in a movie (“Ali”), a dramatic HBO series (“Luck”) and, in a crowning cultural moment he still does not quite understand, his name can be found in a rap song “Females Welcome” by Asher Roth.
