Dodgers Dugout: This is why Craig Kimbrel is still the closer

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell and today we look at the Dodgers’ biggest Achilles’ heel: Craig Kimbrel.

The Dodgers are steamrolling their way to another division title, on pace to win 112 games this season. This despite the fact their closer, Kimbrel, has been shaky at best most of the season.

So why is he still the closer even though there are many other solid candidates (hi, Evan Phillips) in the bullpen?

Before we answer that, let’s look at Kimbrel game by game this season. First three batters faced refers to the batting order position of the first three batters Kimbrel faced.

Date: April 8
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Rockies 5-2
First three batters faced: 7-8-9
Result: groundout, double, strikeout, double, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, two hits, 1 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 5-3
Kimbrel gets a save

Date: April 15
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Reds 3-1
First three batters faced: 7-8-9
Result: popout, ground out, ground out.
Line: 1 IP, no hits, no earned runs, no walks, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 3-1
Save

Date: April 18
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Braves 7-4
First three batters faced: 8-9-1
Result: strikeout (batter reaches on wild pitch, groundout (double play), groundout
Line: one inning, no hits, no earned runs, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 7-4
Save

Date: April 24
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Padres 10-2
First three batters faced: 6-7-8
Result: single, strikeout, groundout (double play)
Line: 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 10-2
not a save situation

Date: April 30
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers trailing Tigers 5-1
First three batters faced: 2-3-4
Result: strikeout, flyout, groundout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, no walks, no strikeouts
Dodgers lose 5-1
not a save situation

Numbers in April: 0-0, three saves, no blown saves, five innings, four hits, one earned run, no walks, five strikeouts, 1.80 ERA

Date: May 1
Comes in: man on second, one out in top of ninth, Dodgers lead Tigers, 6-3
First three batters faced: 1-2-3
Result: groundout, walk, popout
Line: 0.2 IP, no hits, 0 ER, one walk, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 6-3
Save

Date: May 3
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Giants 3-1
First three batters faced: 4-5-6
Result: walk, strikeout, flyout, single, groundout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, one walk, one strikeout
Dodgers win 3-1
Save

Date: May 7
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Cubs 6-2
First three batters faced: 5-6-7
Result: Single, walk, strikeout, lineout, flyout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, one walk, one strikeout
Dodgers win 6-2
not a save situation

Date: May 13
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers trailing Phillies, 9-7
First three batters faced: 6-7-8
Result: Strikeout, strikeout, single, error, groundout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers lose in extra innings 12-10
not a save situation

Date: May 16
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Diamondbacks, 5-2
First three batters faced: 4-5-6
Result: strikeout, single, home run, strikeout, groundout
Line: 1 IP, two hits, 2 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 5-4
Save

Date: May 17
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Diamondbacks, 7-5
First three batters faced: 8-9-1
Result: Walk, strikeout, strikeout, stolen base, balk, single, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 1 ER, one walk, three strikeouts
Dodgers win 7-6
Save

Date: May 20
Comes in: man on second, two out in bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Phillies 4-1
First three batters faced: 7-8-9
Result: single, strikeout
Line: 0.1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 4-1
Save

Date: May 21
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Phillies, 7-4
First three batters faced: 6-7-8
Result: strikeout, fly out, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 7-4
Save

Date: May 27
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Diamondbacks 6-2
First three batters faced: 9-1-2
Result: single, walk, double, popout, groundout, groundout
Line: 1 IP, two hits, 2 ER, one walk, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 6-4
Not a save situation

Date: May 29
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Diamondbacks 3-0
First three batters faced: 6-7-8
Result: strikeout, hit by pitch, flyout, triple, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 1 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 3-1
Save

Date: May 30
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Pirates 5-4
First three batters faced: 7-8-9
Result: groundout, walk, wild pitch, single, error, strikeout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, two runs (one unearned), one walk, two strikeouts
Dodgers lose 6-5
Blown save, loss

Numbers in May: 0-1, seven saves, one blown save, 10 IP, 11 hits, seven ER, six walks, 16 K’s, 6.30 ERA
Numbers for season: 0-1, 10 saves, one blown save, 15 IP, 15 hits, eight ER, six walks, 21 K’s, 4.80 ERA

Date: June 2
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Mets 2-0
First three batters faced: 2-3-4
Result: groundout, fly out, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 2-0
Save

Date: June 5
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers-Mets tied, 4-4. Also pitched top of 10th, tied 4-4
First three batters faced: 2-3-4
Result: (top of ninth) flyout, strikeout, strikeout. (top of 10th) double, strikeout, lineout double play
Line: 2 IP, one hit, one run (unearned), no walks, three strikeouts
Dodgers lose 5-4
Loss

Date: June 11
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers trailing Giants 2-1
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: single, wild pitch, walk, walk, wild pitch, strikeout, replaced by Evan Phillips
Line: 0.1 IP, one hit, 1 ER, two walks, one strikeout
Dodgers lose 3-2
not a save situation, but run he gave up was crucial

Date: June 14
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Angels 2-0
First three batters faced: 1-2-3
Result: strikeout, single, double, walk, strikeout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, two hits, 0 ER, one walk, three strikeouts
Dodgers win 2-0
Save

Date: June 15
Comes in: one out, man on third in top of ninth, Dodgers leading Angels 4-0
First three batters faced: 4-5-6
Result: single, strikeout, strikeout
Line: 0.2 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 4-1
not a save situation

Date: June 19
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers and Guardians tied, 3-3
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: strikeout, double, walk, intentional walk, single, sacrifice fly, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, two hits, 2 ER, two walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers lose, 5-3
Loss

Date: June 22
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Reds 8-4
First three batters faced: 5-6-7
Result: double, flyout, strikeout, groundout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 8-4
Not a save situation

Date: June 24
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Braves 4-1
First three batters faced: 4-5-6
Result: single, pop out, strikeout, flyout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 4-1
Save

Date: June 26
Comes in: to start bottom of 10th, Dodgers leading Braves 3-2
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: single, strikeout, walk, strikeout, flyout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER (one unearned run), one walk, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 5-3, in 11 innings
Blown save, win

Date: June 30
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Padres 3-1
First three batters faced: 7-8-9
Result: strikeout, foul out, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 3-1
Save

Numbers in June: 1-2, four saves, one blown save, 10 IP, 10 hits, 3 ER, six walks, 18 K’s, 2.70 ERA
Numbers for season: 1-3, 14 saves, two blown saves, 25 IP, 25 hits, 11 ER, 12 walks, 39 K’s, 3.96 ERA

Date: July 1
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Padres 5-1
First three batters faced: 2-3-4
Result: flyout, flyout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 5-1
Not a save situation

Date: July 3
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Padres 1-0
First three batters faced: 2-3-4
Result: strikeout, single, double, single, replaced by Yency Almonte
Line: 0.1 IP, three hits, 3 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers lose 4-2
Blown save, loss

Date: July 6
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers-Rockies tied, 1-1
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: groundout, foul out, groundout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, no walks, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 2-1
Win

Date: July 7
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Cubs 5-2
First three batters faced: 1-2-3
Result: strikeout, strikeout, single, double, wild pitch, walk, replaced by Alex Vesia
Line: 0.2 IP, two hits, 1 ER, one walk, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 5-3
Hold

Date: July 9
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Cubs 4-2
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: walk, strikeout, flyout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, one walk, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 4-2
Save

Date: July 13
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers trailing Cardinals, 6-5
First three batters faced: 6-7-8
Result: foul out, lineout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win, 7-6
Win

Date: July 14
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Cardinals, 4-0
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: flyout, double, flyout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 4-0
Not a save situation

Date: July 21
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Giants 9-6
First three batters faced: 1-2-3
Result: Strikeout, single, flyout, lineout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 9-6
Save

Date: July 22
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Giants 5-1
First three batters faced: 6-7-8
Result: single, flyout, double, flyout, pop out
Line: 1 IP, two hits, 0 ER, no walks, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 5-1
Not a save situation

Date: July 24
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Giants 7-4
First three batters faced: 7-8-9
Result: flyout, strikeout, single, lineout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers win 7-4
Save

Date: July 29
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Rockies, 5-2
First three batters faced: 1-2-3
Result: groundout, single, strikeout, single, walk, single, popout
Line: 1 IP, three hits, 2 ER, one walk, one strikeout
Dodgers win 5-4
Save

Date: July 31
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Rockies, 7-3
First three batters faced: 6-7-8
Result: flyout, double, strikeout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win 7-3
Not a save situation

Numbers in July: 2-1, 4 saves, one blown save, one hold, 11 IP, 14 hits, 6 ER, three walks, 13 K’s, 4.91 ERA
Numbers for season: 3-4, 18 saves, three blown saves, one hold, 36 IP, 39 hits, 17 ER, 15 walks, 52 K’s, 4.25 ERA

Date: Aug. 3
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Giants, 3-0
First three batters faced: 5-6-7
Result: flyout, walk, single, hit by pitch, popout, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, one walk, one strikeout
Dodgers win 3-0
Save

Date: Aug. 4
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Giants, 5-2
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: groundout, double, flyout, wild pitch, strikeout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 1 ER, no walks, two strikeouts
Dodgers win, 5-3
Save

Date: Aug. 7
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Padres, 4-0
First three batters faced: 9-1-2
Result: groundout, popout, walk, groundout
Line: 1 IP, no hits, 0 ER, one walk, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 4-0
Not a save situation

Date: Aug. 10
Comes in: to start top of ninth, Dodgers leading Twins, 8-4
First three batters faced: 8-9-1
Result: groundout, flyout, double, single, wild pitch, fly out
Line: 1 IP, two hits, ER, no walks, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 8-5
Not a save situation

Date: Aug. 14
Comes in: to start bottom of eighth, Dodgers trailing Royals, 3-0
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: groundout, home run, strikeout, groundout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 1 ER, no walks, one strikeout
Dodgers lose 4-0
Not a save situation

Date: Aug. 16
Comes in: to start bottom of 11th, Dodgers leading Brewers, 4-3
First three batters faced: 5-6-7
Result: single, strikeout, walk, single
Line: 0.1 IP, two hits, two runs (one unearned), one walk, one strikeout
Dodgers lose 5-4
Blown save, loss

Date: Aug. 17
Comes in: to start bottom of ninth, Dodgers leading Brewers, 2-1
First three batters faced: 3-4-5
Result: groundout, groundout, single, walk, groundout
Line: 1 IP, one hit, 0 ER, one walk, no strikeouts
Dodgers win 2-1
Save

Numbers in August: 0-1, three saves, one blown save, 6 1/3 IP, eight hits, 4 ER, four walks, four K’s, 5.68 ERA
Numbers for season: 3-5, 21 saves, four blown saves, one hold, 42 1/3 IP, 47 hits, 21 ER, 19 walks, 56 K’s, 4.46 ERA

Now let’s look at how he has done in different situations

Righties vs. Kimbrel: .221/.313/.302
Lefties vs. Kimbrel: .322/.385/.494

At home: 4.07 ERA
Road: 5.00 ERA

Save situations: 5.40 ERA
Non-save situations: 3.32 ERA

0 days’ rest (11 times): 3.60 ERA
1 day of rest (9): 5.87 ERA
2 days’ rest (11): 2.38 ERA
3 days’ rest (5): 5.40 ERA
4 days’ rest (1): 18.00 ERA
5 days’ rest (5): 6.23 ERA
6+ days’ rest (3): 3.00 ERA

Night games: 3.10 ERA (29 IP)
Day games: 7.43 ERA (13.1 IP)

Will Smith catching: 4.20 ERA (30 IP)
Austin Barnes catching: 4.76 ERA (11.1 IP)
Tony Wolters catching: 9.00 ERA (1 IP)

vs. Angels: 0.00 ERA (1.2 IP)
vs. Arizona: 13.50 ERA (4 IP)
vs. Atlanta: 0.00 ERA (3 IP)
vs. Chicago Cubs: 3.38 ERA (2.2 IP)
vs. Cincinnati: 0.00 ERA (2 IP)
vs. Cleveland: 18.00 ERA (1 IP)
vs. Colorado: 6.75 ERA (4 IP)
vs. Detroit: 0.00 ERA (1.2 IP)
vs. Kansas City: 9.00 ERA (1 IP)
vs. Milwaukee: 6.75 ERA (1.1 IP)
vs. Minnesota: 9.00 ERA (1 IP)
vs. New York Mets: 0.00 ERA (3 IP)
vs. Philadelphia: 0.00 ERA (2.1 IP)
vs. Pittsburgh: 9.00 ERA (1 IP)
vs. San Diego: 6.23 ERA (4.1 IP)
vs. San Francisco: 2.84 ERA (6.1 IP)
vs. St. Louis: 0.00 ERA (2 IP)

vs. teams above .500: 6.00 ERA
vs. teams below .500: 3.33 ERA

So, if the Dodgers can make sure Kimbrel pitches at night, home, against right-handed hitters on a team that is below .500, then they will have nothing to worry about.

But why stick with Kimbrel? Why not switch to Phillips?

Because it’s August and the Dodgers have a 16 or 17-game lead in the National League West depending on the day. One thing all Dodger fans should have learned during the Andrew Friedman-Dave Roberts regime is that they play the long game. Fans tend to live game to game. That was ingrained in us over the years, especially if the first Dodger manager you remember is Tommy Lasorda. To Lasorda, every game was do-or-die. If Fernando Valenzuela needed to throw 150 pitches to win a game against a last-place team in May, then by gosh that is what Valenzuela is going to do. And that was the culture throughout baseball. Billy Martin, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver. They wanted to win every game, because you had to win the division to make the postseason.

It’s different now. This season 40% of the teams will make the playoffs. It’s all about making the playoffs, not winning the division. And now that it is a virtual lock that the Dodgers will make the postseason, they can afford to be patient with a guy like Kimbrel. Give him a couple more weeks to straighten himself out.

A similar situation, as Jack Harris pointed out in his Kimbrel story here, happened in 2019 and 2020 with Kenley Jansen. He grew progressively more erratic each season, and he did not pitch in a key situation in the five-game NL Division Series loss to Washington in 2019, and was bypassed more than once in the 2020 season. Remember, Julio Urías closed out the 2020 title.

And when Roberts was asked about those similarities, he responded, “I think that’s fair. In the sense of, once you get to a certain point on the schedule, the best players should play. I’m a big believer in the players make the lineup, and the players determine who pitches. So that goes to performance.”

So, we wait. And the Dodgers wait to get Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen back. If Kimbrel continues to struggle, they can retool their bullpen easily. A Phillips-Treinen pairing sounds good. Would I make the change now? I would. But it should not come as a surprise that the Dodgers are waiting.

Walker Buehler, Dustin May

Walker Buehler is done for the season and undergoing elbow surgery next week. “We took a chance to try and take time off, start a progression to get him back for this year,” Roberts said. “Then as he went through it, we couldn’t get over the hump. We took a shot at it and now we have to go in [for surgery].”

No one really seems to know what the exact problem is, and won’t know until the operation.

Dustin May, meanwhile, is starting Saturday for the Dodgers. He pitched five games for the triple-A Oklahoma City Dodgers and looked good, giving up four runs in 19 innings, striking out 33 and walking six.

If he is back and pitches like that May of old, that is a huge boost. That’s a big if though.

Cody Bellinger

The Dodgers took the unusual step of benching Cody Bellinger for two games and then telling everyone he was benched.

“He’s been, I guess we all use the word ‘grinding’ a lot,” Roberts said. “We had a good conversation, and this is more kind of playing the short-term and the long-term view to best serve him. This is a chance to give him one last chance to reset, get away from things, not worry about getting hits, cheering for his teammates and then get back in there and finish strong.”

Since the start of the 2020 season, Bellinger is hitting .200/.271/.379 with 39 doubles, 38 homers and 252 strikeouts in 911 at-bats.

It will be very interesting to see if Bellinger is with the Dodgers next season.

After the two-day reset, Bellinger went 0 for 4 Thursday with three strikeouts. Perhaps instead of hitting the reset button, they should have Bellinger play the game on easy mode.

What Vin Scully meant to me

Patrick Fernandez: Vin was my invisible carpool buddy during the baseball season and kept me sane on my hour-long commutes. The drives were never the same after he retired.

Kevin Charles: This is truly like losing a close, personal friend, someone whose voice we even heard as kids falling asleep in the dark. While the works of most favorite artists can be enjoyed over and over, Vin’s art was different because it was in the moment. Vin Scully, my close, personal friend, has called the ninth inning of his life and the game is finally over. The radio has gone silent. And it hurts.

Vince Hall: My father was in the hospital waiting room while my mom was giving birth to me because that’s the way it was done in those days. As dad flipped through the pages of a May 1964 Sports Illustrated, he came across a feature story about his favorite radio announcer, Vin Scully. Scully and the Dodgers had moved to Los Angeles from Brooklyn in 1958, the same year my family moved to Los Angeles from Ireland. Holding that Sports Illustrated in his hand, dad convinced my mother that I should be named after Mr. Vin Scully.

Around 1985, after Steve Garvey and I had both switched allegiances to the San Diego Padres, I ran into Scully at Jack Murphy Stadium and told him the whole story. He loved it. As he smiled and laughed, he put his hand on my shoulder and said “I hope it hasn’t been too much of a burden on you,” which made us both laugh.

Around 2008, I went online and purchased an original May 1964 Sports Illustrated with the feature story about Scully. I wrote him a letter reminding him of my naming story and asked if he would consider signing the magazine. I mailed it to Dodger Stadium not knowing if I would ever see the magazine again.

One week later, I received a FedEx from Vin Scully’s home in Thousand Oaks. Inside was my magazine and a kind and thoughtful handwritten note.

Vin Scully was a class act all the way. It feels like his voice was the soundtrack of my childhood, it was on so often. His kindness, humor, and love of people will always be an inspiration to me. Rest in peace.

And finally

Vin Scully talks with David Letterman about Kirk Gibson‘s home run. Watch and listen here.