Burke: Two very different styles will be on display in this one. The Cyclones have won 59-54 and 54-49 in this tournament, holding opponents to six of 41 from three-point range. They took on an LSU team that had just fired its coach and a Wisconsin team that was clearly over-seeded, and had its worst offensive performance of the season at the worst possible time.
What’s interesting is that the Hurricanes are just four of 29 from three-point range. They’ve shot 52 of 94 on two-pointers, however, and have actually locked down a bit more on defense — aside from just forcing turnovers, which they’ve done well all season. The Hurricanes are plus-24 in turnover margin in the NCAA tournament, but they’ve also held back-to-back opponents to under 1.00 points per possession in consecutive games for the first time since January.
Iowa State is a team that forces a lot of turnovers as well, but unlike Miami, fails to take care of the basketball. The Cyclones rank 295th against Division I opponents in turnover percentage on offense. This game will likely come down to the team that takes better care of the ball, but it could also come down to the better offense, which is clearly Miami.
The Cyclones are outside the top 200 in eFG% offense, as they shoot under 32% from three-point range. Miami is just outside the top 30 in eFG% offense. We’ve seen a pretty noticeable move to the Miami side, and I agree with the early money.
Pick: Miami -2.5
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