Will UCLA finally beat Stanford at the Rose Bowl? Four things to watch Saturday

Numbers can be used to make a case for almost anything.

Stanford has won two games in a row. It recently owned an 11-game win streak against UCLA and has won in each of its last six trips to face the Bruins at the Rose Bowl. The Cardinal have won five of their last six games against ranked UCLA teams, all under coach David Shaw.

Sounds like some high drama might be in store for the latest clash between the teams Saturday night at the Rose Bowl?

Probably not. There’s a reason the No. 12 Bruins are 16½-point favorites.

Residing at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings, Stanford just isn’t very good, no matter the spin. Yes, the Cardinal beat Arizona State last weekend to snap a 10-game conference losing streak, but they couldn’t even score a touchdown. Kicker Joshua Karty, not quarterback Tanner McKee, was the hero, making all five field goals to tie a school record in the 15-14 triumph.

Scoring remains a struggle and even a defense that has stiffened considerably the last two weeks ranks ninth among conference teams in yardage allowed, giving up 402 per game.

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Here are four things to watch when UCLA (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) faces the Cardinal (3-4, 1-4) at 7:30 p.m. PDT in a game nationally televised by ESPN:

UCLA’s Jake Bobo, center, dives into the end zone for a touchdown against Oregon during the second half on Saturday in Eugene, Ore.

(Chris Pietsch / Associated Press)

UCLA is an unfamiliar position. The Bruins are coming off a loss for the first time in almost a year.

A nine-game win streak ensued, the nearly yearlong joy ride finally ending last week with a 45-30 setback against Oregon.

How have the Bruins responded in practice?

“They’ve been great,” coach Chip Kelly said. “They were great first meeting Monday morning.”

Kelly credited veteran leaders such as quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, wide receiver Jake Bobo, and safeties Stephan Blaylock and Mo Osling III with creating positive energy to steady the team.

UCLA has not lost consecutive games since October 2021.

UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet, center, outruns Oregon’s Noah Sewell, left, and Mase Funa, right, during the second half on Saturday in Eugene, Ore.

(Chris Pietsch / Associated Press)

The Bruins are trying to make their first Rose Bowl game since the end of the 1998 season, when quarterback Cade McNown’s high-flying offense offset a spotty defense.

These Bruins might be even more prolific. Averaging 497.4 yards, they are on pace to top the school record the ‘98 team set by rolling up 487.3 yards per game.

UCLA has topped 500 yards in three games this season while exceeding 400 yards in every game. A running game that averages 207.9 yards per game should succeed against a Stanford defense allowing 187.6 yards per game on the ground, ranking 10^th in the Pac-12.

Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet has run for at least 100 yards in each of his last six conference games.

Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee (18) runs against Arizona State linebacker Merlin Robertson (8) during game at Stanford on Saturday.

(Jeff Chiu / Associated Press)

Stanford has improved defensively in recent weeks, holding Notre Dame and Arizona State to 14 points apiece.

The Cardinal have gone as far as their defense has taken them all season, giving up 12.7 points per game in their wins and 38.5 points per game in their losses.

They have held each of their last two opponents under 360 yards per game, though they haven’t faced the sort of offensive efficiency UCLA has generated on a weekly basis.

Stanford needs to keep its recent momentum going to avoid the possibility of its first back-to-back losing seasons under Shaw.

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UCLA quarterback Kevin Craft looks to pass as Stanford defensive end Pannel Egboh puts on pressure during a game at the Rose Bowl on Oct. 18, 2008. The Bruins won the game on a last-minute touchdown pass by Craft.

(Danny Moloshok / Associated Press)

Former UCLA quarterback Kevin Craft, who guided the Bruins to a victory over Stanford in 2008, might have figured his name would stop popping up in stories once UCLA broke its 11-game losing streak against the Cardinal with a victory in 2019 in Palo Alto.

But Craft remains the last quarterback to lead UCLA to a victory over Stanford at the Rose Bowl, something Thompson-Robinson would like to change Saturday.

Craft connected with tight end Cory Harkey on a seven-yard scoring pass with 10 seconds left to give the Bruins a 23-20 victory back in 2008.

UCLA has won seven consecutive home games going back to last October.