Russia is electing a new parliament--but hardly anyone thinks Putin’s party will lose

These days, Mikhail Kasyanov hardly looks like the imposing statesman in a bespoke suit who headed Russia’s government during President Vladimir Putin’s first term.

In the months leading up to Sunday’s parliamentary election, the bespectacled 58-year-old prime minister-turned-opposition leader was repeatedly assaulted by Putin supporters and pelted with eggs, tomatoes and a cake.

During a televised debate in August, a pro-Kremlin opponent handed Kasyanov a U.S. flag, calling it “the banner whose interests you defend.” And in April, the NTV channel aired parts of a grainy, black-and-white tape of the married politician in bed with his scantily clad assistant.

The smear campaign against Kasyanov, the biggest political heavyweight to oppose Putin since opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was slain last year, underscores the ordeals to which Kremlin critics were subjected during the contest for 450 seats in the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament.

“This is a special operation against the only political force the Kremlin is afraid of,” said Kasyanov, who heads the People’s Freedom Party, known by its Russian acronym, PARNAS.

The last parliamentary vote in 2011 ended with huge urban protests against alleged vote rigging. This time around, the Kremlin made it easier for opposition candidates to take part, but few expected the vote to be free or fair.

Although 14 parties were registered for the poll, United Russia, the pro-Kremlin behemoth that has dominated the Duma for more than a decade, was expected to retain its absolute majority. A recent poll by the independent Levada Center found that about 50% of likely voters planned to cast ballots for the party.

Many Russians credit Putin and United Russia for their nation’s return to the world stage, steady economic growth during the early 2000s and substantial improvements in living standards.

“For my family, they did a lot,” said Vadim Kolesov, an office manager in the southwestern city of Rostov.

He bought a discounted apartment with the help of a government program to provide affordable housing to young families, and his children attend a state-run school built nearby.

“Those who criticize [Putin] hardly stand a chance to win any Duma seats,” Kolesov said.

Opposition parties, meanwhile, failed to mount effective or inspiring campaigns.

“If you look at voters’ complaints about the liberals, both among the average public and disenchanted supporters, the list will be topped by two complaints: ‘They just criticize and don’t offer anything instead,’ and ‘They only show up around elections,’” said Denis Volkov, a Levada analyst.

Many voters responded to the campaigns of Kasyanov and other Kremlin critics with indifference -- or even hostility.

“Kasyanov is a has-been who stole billions and just wants to get back to power to steal more,” fumed Valery Koryabin, a 62-year-old engineer from the Volga River city of Samara who voted for Putin three times and planed to cast his ballot Sunday for United Russia. “Yes, there is corruption in United Russia, but Putin is rooting it out.”

Still, some of Putin’s staunchest opponents saw the vote as a chance to get a foot in the Duma’s door.

They include Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an oil tycoon who was jailed for nearly a decade after challenging Putin. Now living in exile in London, he threw his financial support behind 18 opposition candidates across Russia and did not hide his hope that their participation would lead to a wider revolt.

“One cannot play with crooks according to their crooked rules and win,” Khodorkovsky told a news conference in London this month. “And a way beyond their crooked rules is called a revolution.”

Three of the participating parties – the Communist Party, the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and the social-democratic Just Russia – are part of what the Kremlin calls the “systemic opposition,” with a presence in the Duma and government funding.

Critics describe them as quasi-opposition political extras who quietly vote for most of United Russia’s bills.

The other parties have no seats in the outgoing Duma, get little or no coverage on television and have just a handful of headliners that most Russians can recognize.

Some even use Putin’s image to promote their agenda. Maria Katasonova, a candidate for the fiercely anti-Western Motherland party, included photographs of him along with French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and U.S. presidential hopeful Donald Trump in her election posters.

In its quest for representation in the Duma, Kasyanov’s PARNAS has joined forces with diverse and sometimes controversial figures. His running mates Sunday included a nationalist with a huge Internet following who is known for racist and anti-Semitic slurs, and a bow-tie-wearing history professor who advocates the restoration of the monarchy.

Barred from running in 2011, PARNAS members said they were surprised when authorities allowed almost 300 of their candidates to participate this year – only to have their rallies banned or interrupted, their emails and computers hacked, their supporters detained and campaign ads removed or covered with obscenities.

Other Kremlin opponents reported similar problems, but that did not help them overcome chronic infighting. Yabloko, the only other party that openly criticizes the Kremlin, refused to join forces with PARNAS for the election.

Kasyanov maintains that his party should get at least 10% of the vote Sunday, but he did not sound optimistic about the outcome.

“This is a political dead end,” he said. “I don’t rule out revolutionary manifestations in various parts of Russia in the coming years.”

Mirovalev is a special correspondent.

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