Poll Analysis: Arguments for Action Against Iraq Find a Receptive Audience

There is substantial public support for the use of U.S. military force to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, according to the latest Los Angeles Times poll. Despite some fear that an attack on Iraq would increase the threat of terrorism against Americans at home and abroad and possibly lead to less stability in the Middle East, the Bush administration has found a receptive audience for its case against Saddam Hussein with the public at large, and especially with those who identify as Republican. However, most would like to see the U.S. act only with the support of the international community.

One year after the September 11th terrorist attack, Americans said their lives are returning to normal. However, many indicated their lives have changed since the attacks and a majority indicated that the change has contributed to their life being both better and worse than it was before.

Iraq

Americans are following the public debate over the possibility of U.S. military action against Iraq with interest. Three out of four adults said they are following the news either very closely (31%) or somewhat closely (45%). The survey found the Bush administration’s advocacy of an active U.S. military role in effecting a “regime change” in Iraq has resonated well with the public so far. By a margin of more than three to one (76% to 23%) Americans said they think that the United States should take military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power, with nearly half (47%) saying they feel strongly about it.

Arguments presented by the president and others as reasons for action are likewise finding a sympathetic audience among Americans. Six in 10 say they agree with the administration argument that Hussein must be removed from power because he is a threat to the United States, compared to 27% who see the threat of military action against Iraq as a political move. Nearly eight in 10 say they believe Saddam Hussein has supported Al Qaeda’s terrorist activities, another charge which has been made by the administration. Other public figures have said there is little direct evidence that this is the case.

One argument against taking military action against Hussein is that it could lead to more tension in the Middle East. The survey found that while a portion of the U.S. public agrees, it is not an overwhelming concern. Just over two out of 10 said they believe that action against Iraq will act to stabilize the Middle East, and among that group, 86% are in favor of military action against Iraq. Nearly twice that many said it will destabilize the situation in the region, and that group is split 45% to 47% for and against the U.S. making a move. Another two in 10 believe it won’t have an effect on the stability of the region one way or the other, and that group supports action by 61% to 25%, with nearly three in 10 not sure.

It is no surprise that those who identify with the party headed by the still popular President Bush would support military action against Iraq more strongly, and the survey shows this to be true. Seventy-three percent of self-described Republicans support taking military action (59% strongly support it), compared with 53% each of those who identify as Democrats (40% strongly) and independents (44% strongly).

Just over six in 10 overall also said they would specifically support the deployment of U.S. ground troops to attack Iraqi forces. That number dropped to 45% when asked if they would still support such an action if it would result in “substantial U.S. casualties.” Nearly twice as many self-described Republicans (61%) as Democrats (32%) would support the use of ground troops even if substantial casualties resulted. A plurality of 42% of independents feel the same. Just under four in 10 of those who identify as a Democrat do not support the use of ground troops at all, compared with 12% of Republican identifiers and 34% of independents.

The sense that a U.S. attack on Iraq is imminent crosses all partisan lines, however. Three-quarters of adults overall, including 77% of Democrats, 75% of independents and 80% of Republicans said they think it is very or somewhat likely that the U.S. will move against Iraq sometime in the coming year.

Most Americans, however, indicated they are hoping that such action will happen only with the support of the nation’s allies and partners. Nearly two out of three (65%) overall agreed with the statement, “The United States should take military action against Iraq only if that military action has the support of the international community.” Three quarters of Democrats, seven in 10 independents and even half of Republicans indicated they would prefer that the U.S. not act alone.

One year later

Normal life has resumed for nearly seven in 10 Americans, up from the 54% who said life had returned to normal just two months after the attacks. In that Times Poll survey, conducted November 2001, 23% said they were not affected by the events,15% indicated they were beginning to return to normal, 54% said they were okay again, and 7% indicated they were still having trouble. In the current survey, 14% said they had not been affected, 68% said they were okay now, 13% are getting there, and only 5% are still having trouble.

Three in 10 said life is better these days, while only 13% said it is worse. The majority (52%) said that changes in their lives are both better and worse. Ways that life is better for those who have seen improvements include being more aware and careful (28%), spending more time with family (17%), feeling more patriotic (13%) and having clearer priorities (12%.) Those that said life has become worse mentioned feeling more anxious these days (9%) or having to cope with increased security in the wake of September 11th.

Security is much on the minds of the American public. Just about two-thirds indicated they would not be surprised if there was another attack on the United States within the next six months and just under two in five say their sense of personal safety has been shaken up to some extent.

The public is giving a somewhat tepid thumbs up to a bill which would create a new Department of Homeland Defense by combining federal agencies such as the Coast Guard, Secret Service and FEMA. The bill passed in the House but a version of it did not come up for a vote in the Senate before their summer recess. About three in 10 said they favor the proposal strongly and another three in 10 favor it somewhat. Twenty-seven percent said they were opposed, and 14% said they weren’t sure.

If a new Department of Homeland Defense were created, it might add to the feeling of safety in the country -- more than two in three indicated that they would have at least some confidence that the new department would be able to protect the country from terrorist attacks. Americans continue to express a great deal of confidence in their military’s ability to protect the country from terrorist attack. Eighty-three percent said they had some, or a lot, of confidence in the military, while 16% said not so much or none.

The survey found the public less confident in the Bush administration’s leadership when it comes to fighting terrorism. More than half said they think the government is just reacting to events as they happen rather than formulating a clear policy for dealing with the war on terrorism.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,372 Americans nationwide, including 1,163 registered voters, by telephone August 22-25. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.