Season 7 is tops; numbers don’t lie
Here we are, down to the top 12 of “American Idol” Season 7, and after a shaky Season 6, I’m far from alone in saying with a straight face that this may prove to be the best of all “Idol” seasons.
Even the early departures of widely enjoyed candidates Danny Noriega, Kady Malloy and Asia’h Epperson last week seemed proof of the quality of this season. Whereas in seasons past the top 12 have contained a fair amount of chaff and several more weeks at least were spent culling singers who had not risen to the challenge, this year the knife was hitting bone before even reaching the top 12.
Since Hollywood Week, I have been setting forth the notion to acquaintances that this may actually turn out to be the Archetypal “Idol” Season. This group, I have offered, contains a higher median level of singing than any before and a greater assortment of unique and compelling personalities likely to gather followings than previous seasons. What’s more, at the center of the drama is the epic showdown brewing between the Chosen One, David Archuleta, a child singer seemingly genetically engineered to fulfill the “Idol” prophecies of greatness, and the Duende From Down Under, Michael Johns, probably the male contestant with the most raw charisma ever to step foot on the “Idol” stage. And waiting alongside the battle to claim the female caucus’ rightful place at the table rages Carly Smithson, a dark and supernaturally gifted singer who still remains a bit of a wild card but has the potential to overturn all conventional wisdom about the race.
This is the case I have made, and it has been met in equal measures by hoots of derision and wild exclamations that Yes! This is the year! Along with great enthusiasm for a broad spread of the candidates.
Instinct tells me we are on the brink of something amazing here. However, instinct also tells me not to trust my instincts. A perusal through my columns of last year will unearth a fair number of similar bursts of mad, unabashed enthusiasm for the field.
Thus, coming to a place where thought accuses and feeling mocks, I have decided not to trust my unexamined impressions but to turn to science instead to gauge the question: How does this season stack up to the others?
Assisted by fellow “Idol” scholar Ryan Shiraki, a screenwriter, director and former music booker for “Saturday Night Live,” I looked at the top 12 contestants of each season (excepting Season 1, which only showcased a top 10, which we examined). We gave each contestant two scores on a 1 to 5 scale (5 being the best) -- one score for raw singing talent and the second for personality. We totaled the scores of each season’s top 12 and then averaged them to find which season had the highest average score in each category.
Before unveiling the results of this study, a few disclaimers:
* The scores for each contestant are, of course, subjective. However, coming from very different perspectives (Shiraki is a Clay Aiken loyalist; I carry the banner of Katherine McPhee), we attempted to reach a consensus.
* The personality score should not be taken to mean likability; it is an attempt to measure the extent to which the candidate projected a strong personality -- positive or negative -- that altered his or her fortunes and reshaped the race. Thus, some of the more likable contestants -- Melinda Doolittle, for example -- scored poorly because they failed to project a strong personal presence beyond their singing. Thus, both Kelly Clarkson and Sanjaya Malakar earned fives in this category.
* Admittedly, the judging in some ways is tilted toward this season’s contestants. Past competitors have already completed their oeuvres, with all the inevitable stumbles a season will bring and are thus penalized for them. Some whom we prize highly at this point in the season may wilt under “Idol”-dom’s white-hot glare. On the other hand, some, like Kristy Lee Cook, who have failed to excel musically thus far may yet surprise us -- as Jordin Sparks did last year. We also sought to be sober and conservative in our assessments of this year’s singing talents, to look coldly at their qualities and judge each according to what we found.
I invite all those skeptical of our results to view the raw data (download idolspreadsheet1.xls) and e-mail or leave comments on your differences and where you think we have completely blown it. If there is a popular outcry on any particular line item, we will consider adjusting appropriately.
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How the seasons stack up
*--* Top 10 or 12 rivals (on 1 to 5 scale) Singing Personality Season 1 (Kelly vs. Justin) 2.7 2.3 Season 2 (Ruben vs. Clay) 3.1 2.9 Season 3 (Fantasia vs. Diana) 3.1 2.4 Season 4 (Carrie vs. Bo) 2.8 3.0 Season 5 (Taylor vs. Katharine) 2.7 3.0 Season 6 (Jordin vs. Blake) 2.6 2.6 Season 7 (TBD) 3.6 3.7 *--*