A war movie needs allies

As politicians, Mike Huckabee and Charlie Wilson couldn’t be more dissimilar. But in some ways, their respective ascendancies in Iowa and the multiplex offer mirror images: Initially dismissed by pundits, both are proving more popular than many imagined, a reminder that real people -- not prognosticators -- ultimately decide who’s going to win.

Universal’s “Charlie Wilson’s War” continues to sell movie tickets at a strong clip, and the film just surpassed the total gross of the studio’s other recent war-related movie, “The Kingdom.” Finishing in sixth place over the weekend, “Charlie Wilson’s” sold an estimated $8.2 million in tickets and now has grossed $52.6 million.

Universal believes the movie could end up grossing as much as $70 million or more. “I think we’ll break $100 million,” producer Gary Goetzman says. “Because we’re still growing and we have repeat business -- people kind of want to get into it again.”

Even with Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts in starring roles, “Charlie Wilson’s” faced challenges that Universal itself acknowledged were formidable: a $75-million movie about war, a politician and Afghanistan. “Those are probably,” studio marketing chief Adam Fogelson says, “in most people’s top five things of what they want to avoid in moviegoing.”

“Charlie Wilson’s” is much lighter on its feet than other current movies about conflict, but the returns for those earlier films had not been encouraging: “In the Valley of Elah” grossed just $6.6 million for Warner Independent, and “Rendition” took in a thin $8.5 million for New Line Cinema. “The Kingdom” fared the best of the bunch, grossing a respectable but unimposing $47.5 million.

Universal’s advertisements for “Charlie Wilson’s” struggled to capture the film’s true nature: Was it a drama or a comedy or both? As Goetzman says: “People did not get a clear idea of what the movie really was. It’s a hard movie to crystallize.”

“Charlie Wilson’s” also faced the Christmas-season juggernauts “I Am Legend” and “National Treasure: Book of Secrets.” Consequently, some box-office prognosticators (including this one) concluded “Charlie Wilson’s” would have a difficult time becoming a hit.

But Universal, Goetzman and director Mike Nichols all knew something several industry experts overlooked: “Charlie Wilson’s” was really enjoyable to watch. Despite a cutting review in the L.A. Times, the film was reviewed well in many markets, earning a Metacritic.com score of 69 and a RottenTomatoes.com score of 82. It also collected five Golden Globe nominations.

Adapted by “The West Wing’s” Aaron Sorkin from George Crile’s massive book about Wilson’s protracted but ultimately successful effort to arm the Afghan mujahedin against Soviet invaders, the movie was quick (97 minutes) and frothy. Although “Charlie Wilson’s” did not end on an upbeat note, the final film was more affirmative than one earlier version, which concluded with the Sept. 11 attack on the Pentagon.

“It had the kind of playability you rarely see in these types of films,” Fogelson says. “It was not a history lesson, and there was genuine entertainment.” At early preview screenings, the overriding response was about how much fun the movie was. As soon as the studio saw the finished film, it moved up its release date from Dec. 25 to Dec. 21.

The film’s premiere was not overly impressive: $9.7 million. But almost every weekday after that first weekend, “Charlie Wilson’s” grossed another $3 million or $4 million. The weekend after Christmas, the film surged more than 24% from its opening weekend, taking in an additional $12 million. In so doing, “Charlie Wilson’s” pushed past the more heavily touted “Sweeney Todd.”

“The most important thing to this picture has been its word of mouth,” Goetzman says. “Word of mouth is everything.”

Those recommendations were coming from a segment of the audience that doesn’t typically rush the ticket window: Half of “Charlie Wilson’s” audience has been 50 or older, Universal says.

Fogelson now carries with him a tally of the day-by-day grosses of movies he feels share “Charlie Wilson’s” trajectory: “The Good Shepherd,” “Gangs of New York,” “The Aviator” and “Cold Mountain.” So far, Fogelson says, “Charlie Wilson’s” is outpacing all except “Cold Mountain.”

Nichols says the comparisons between the movie and its hero’s story and the Iowa caucuses are fitting, although he’s more inclined to look at Barack Obama’s win for reference. “It sort of can remind people that you can make a difference. And it’s still people that decide stuff -- it’s still a free country,” Nichols says.

“For me, the greatest happiness is that the audience went right over the heads of the market predictors and just liked it.”

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john.horn@latimes.com