Racing! Happy Preakness Day

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as Justify bids to win the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Let’s start with stories to read from our website (and paper product).

First, this is the advance, the final set-up, of Saturday’s Preakness Stakes. (Just click here.)

And here’s roundup of other races on Friday, including the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. (Just click here.)

In case you missed it

Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse of xbtv.com offer up their exclusive analysis of Saturday’s eight stakes races, including the Preakness. Lots of insight about a lot of races where you can make some money. It’s really good and comprehensive. Do yourself a favor and watch. (Just click here.)

If you missed their look at Wednesday’s draw. (Just click here.)

More Preakness video

Jennie Rees, one our occasional newsletter contributors from JR Communications, shot these videos of trainers from Friday morning. Give them a look.

Bob Baffert (Just click here.)

Chad Brown (Just click here.)

Tom Amoss (Just click here.)

More Preakness

The Preakness notes team was in full rain gear on Thursday and are glad to share some of their information with you.

--Justify did a controlled gallop of about 1 ½ miles at about 5:30 a.m. Baffert usually trains later but the track was shutting down early because of an early post on Black-Eyed Susan day. “We wanted to beat the rain,” Baffert said. “It quit raining when we went out there. It always does. It always quits.” Needless to say, it didn’t stay that way for most of the day.

--Brown made his first appearance on the Pimlico backstretch on Friday morning. “I love what I see,” Brown said about his colt, Good Magic. “The horse’s weight continues to hold very well. I just decided to jog the horse this morning. He’s had three good gallops over an off track. … He’s very fit. He’s full of himself. His energy level is where we want it to be.”

--Quip galloped a mile under his trainer Rodolphe Brisset on Friday morning. Brisset talked abut the horse breaking from the one. “It takes all the pressure off when you know you have a good gate horse. He broke his maiden from the one hole. He’s got enough tactical speed to be right up there. We’ll see what happens. The main thing for me is make sure the saddling goes all right in the paddock.”

--Lone Sailor jogged to the starting gate, where he stood and backed out then jogged home to complete a mile. “The job is done,” said Amoss. “We’ve got one day to the race. [Friday] was simply practicing the starting gate to make sure he was calm and cool to make sure when the gates do open that’s he’s standing correctly. It’s very common for horses to go to the starting gate the day before they run. A very easy day. The big work is [Saturday].”

--Wayne Lukas sent his pair, Bravazo and Sporting Chance, for some light exercise of about a one-mile jog around the track. Sporting Chance was accompanied by a pony.

--Tenfold schooled at the gate before going for a 1 ¼ mile gallop. Trainer Steve Asmussen wondered about the condition of the track after two days of racing in the slop. “It will be interesting to see how the racetrack plays that late,” he said, “with this many races already run over it, if they are poking through or if the bottom stays firm. It was very firm [Friday] morning underneath, but we’re looking at 20-some races between now and the Preakness, and the weather doesn’t appear to be letting up.”

--Diamond King went for a two-mile jog on Friday and trainer John Servis was pleased with what he saw. “He went good and he’s feeling good,” Servis said. “As a matter of fact, I had to walk over and tell Wayne and them to watch out because he was firing at a couple people in the shedrow. That’s a good sign. He’s a happy boy.”

Our handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from Saturday’s third race at Santa Anita.

“This is a starter allowance race at 5 ½ furlongs. One of the unwritten rules on the backside with regard to horses switching barns, is, the pride of trainers is thicker than water, meaning, all trainers wanna improve a horse when receiving a horse from another barn. Notice that Hess got a win from TWO HAIL MARYS in his first try for Bob off the long layoff, and today, Phil D’Amato will be looking to run well with the former Miyadi horse CATFISH HUNTER (#4), in a new barn despite winning his last start back in November. The drills for this barn super quick, while Maldonado is a great fit, telling us they’re looking for speed from the gate. Back to TWO HAIL MARYS (#3), freshened since the win by Hess, the fact he runs for the second time in two months following the long layoff, is a good sign, after all, good health opens the door to a good effort, and here’s Kent Desormeaux up, Bob’s ‘go to jock’ as far back as 1997. Watch for horses switching barns, and you’ll start recognizing on a regular basis, many good efforts when running for the first time in a new outfit.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: From the past 12 races over this 5 ½ furlong distance, all have been won by runners on the lead or within two lengths of the leader at the ½ mile pole.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Negative Notes:

“1 Polity - Won as our top pick at 7-1 off the very long layoff, but this is a better group and we’ll look to defeat.

“TOP PICK: CATFISH HUNTER (#4 8-5 Maldonado)

“SECOND CHOICE: TWO HAIL MARYS (#3 5-1 Desormeaux)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Fool’s Paradise, who finished fifth in the Santa Anita Oaks, redeemed herself with a 5-¼ length win against softer company in the featured mile allowance race on Friday at Santa Anita.

Owned by Paul and Zillah Reddam and trained by Ben Cecil, she took the lead with three furlongs to go and widened it through the remainder of the race. Mario Gutierrez was the rider.

“She’s starting to calm down a bit now,” Cecil told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “She was great in the paddock and on the track. She’s improving and she’ll need to keep improving to be stakes caliber.”

She paid $6.00, $3.60 and $2.80. Demigoddess finished second and Beautiful Princess was third.

Santa Anita preview

It’s a 12-race card at Santa Anita on Saturday and officials have put all the big fields in the last five races to make it attractive to late pick five players. First post is noon, but the track opens up at 7:00 to accommodate those who want to play the Pimlico card, which starts at 7:30 a.m.

There are five turf races, including the $100,000 Fran’s Valentine Stakes for Cal-bred fillies and mares 3 and up going a mile. The favorite is Moonless Sky at 7-2. She finished second in last year’s Fran’s Valentine after a troubled trip. She has won five of 13 lifetime and four of six races at Santa Anita. Kent Desormeaux rides the Eddie Truman-trained mare.

How About Zero, who was supplemented into the race for Doug O’Neill and the Reddams, is the 4-1 second choice.

The field sizes, in order: 8, 8 (2 also eligible), 6, 11, 8, 8, 12 (1 AE), 8, 11, 12, 11, 12.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

9:51 Pimlico: $100,000 James W. Murphy Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Say The Word (5-2)

11:07 Pimlico: $250,000 Grade 2 Dixie Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: World Approval (1-1)

11:36 Gulfstream: $100,000 Musical Romance Stakes, Fla-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Stormy Embrace (7-5)

11:45 Pimlico: $200,000 Chick Lang Stakes, 3 year olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Mitole (3-5)

12:25 Pimlico: Grade 3 $150,000 Gallorette Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Cambodia (8-5)

1:05 Pimlico: Grade 3 $150,000 Maryland Sprint Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Long Haul Bay (2-1)

1:42 Pimlico: $100,000 The Very One Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 furlongs on the turf. Favorite: Girls Know Best (3-1)

2:08 Woodbine: Grade 3 $125,000 Selene Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Dixie Moon (2-1)

2:26 Churchill: Grade 3 $100,000 Louisville Handicap, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Some In Tieme (5-2)

2:33 Belmont: $100,000 Grade 3 Soaring Softly Stakes, fillies 3 year olds, 7 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Africa (3-1)

2:39 Pimlico: $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Ax Man (8-5)

2:44 Arlington: Grade 3 $100,000 Arlington Matron Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Con Te Partiro (5-2)

3:48 Pimlico: $1.5 million Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 3/16 miles. Favorite: Justify (1-2)

5:00 Santa Anita: $100,000 Fran’s Valentine Stakes, Cal-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Moonless Sky (7-2)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 8 Best Two Minutes (4-1)

Razor-sharp gelding from the Billy Morey barn comes off a strong win for $25,000 first off the claim and now gets a confident class boost into this allowance/optional claimer. Drawn well outside with tactical speed, no reason he can't score right back.

Friday’s result: Tough It Out ($7.00), second choice behind an odds-on favorite, rode the rail under good Kent Desormeaux handling and won his second straight for trainer Vladimir Cerin.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 9 Parsons Rocket (5-2)

He made my horses-to-watch list after breaking slow and veering inward two lanes from the rail post in fourth-place debut when loaded with run past the wire. He now moves to the far outside post and has the experience edge over debut runner Mister Appolitical, who figures to get heavily supported based on 12.2 gate drill May 1.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

BEAUTIFUL BECCA sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then a bit off the rail on the backstretch, angled in again on the second turn and held on gamely under urging. SALSITA angled in and saved ground stalking the pace throughout and edged a rival for the place. PROUD 'N' READY chased between horses then a bit off the rail early on the backstretch, went up three deep into and on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and finished with interest to be edged for second. PEACH COVE (NZ) pulled her way along to stalk the pace outside a rival then three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. OK DOLL angled in and raced close up stalking the winner just off the rail then between foes on the second turn and turn and into the stretch and also lacked the necessary response. RESKY BUSINESS rank under a hold along the inside and steadied into and out of the first turn, pulled hard along the backstretch from the inside and steadied again into the second turn, continued along the rail leaving that turn and into the stretch and did not rally. ZUZANNA three deep on the first turn, chased outside a rival, split horses on the second turn, continued outside a foe into the stretch and lacked a further response. RYDER'S STARLIGHT dropped back inside and saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally..

FOOL'S PARADISE had good early speed and pressed the pace inside, took the advantage into the second turn, inched away leaving that turn and drew off in the stretch under some urging and a long hold late. DEMIGODDESS sped to the early lead, set a pressured pace between horses, stalked a bit off the rail leaving the second turn and into the stretch and was clearly second best. BEAUTIFUL PRINCESS prompted the pace three deep between horses then stalked just off the rail into and on the second turn, came out three wide into the stretch and weakened but picked up the show. BELLA FILOMENA saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the second turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. MAPIT pressed the pace four wide then three deep leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, stalked outside the runner-up leaving that turn and weakened in the drive. PRINCESS KENDRA settled outside a rival chasing the pace, angled in leaving the second turn, gave way and was eased in the final furlong.

G Q COVERGIRL sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside leaving the hill, drifted out some in the stretch and held gamely under a couple cracks of the whip and good handling. TRAVIEZA stalked the pace outside a rival, came out some in the stretch and edged a foe for the place. GOSEECAL chased a bit off the rail then inside, came out on the dirt crossing and three deep into the stretch and was edged for second. MORNING DANCE stalked off the inside then outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch, drifted in some and bumped a foe nearing midstretch, split rivals, bumped that one again in deep stretch and was outfinished. SABURAI chased inside, came out into the stretch, was bumped nearing midstretch then split rivals, was bumped again in deep stretch and lacked the needed rally. TIZANILLUSION saved ground stalking the pace throughout and lacked the needed response in the drive. RUBY TRUST angled in after the right hand curve and saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside into and in the stretch and did not rally. Following a stewards' inquiry, MORNING DANCE was disqualified and placed fifth for interference in the stretch. Rail on hill at 7 feet.

BROOME broke out and bumped the runner-up, angled in and dueled inside, regained the lead while coming out some and brushing that foe into the stretch, inched away under urging in deep stretch and proved best. SEE THE WORLD bumped at the start, dueled outside the winner, put a head in front into the second turn, fought back while brushed by that one into the stretch, battled alongside to deep stretch then held second. TURING MACHINE bobbled at the start, chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn, drifted four wide into the stretch and was edged f or the place. SWEET CONGRATS broke out some, went four wide into the first turn, stalked off the rail then outside a rival, came out into the stretch and weakened. WISH YOU WERE MINE three deep into the first turn, chased outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, angled to the inside into the stretch and also weakened. SMART LITTLE DEVIL came off the rail into the backstretch to chase the leaders, went three deep approaching the second turn, continued off the rail and had little left for the drive. SPACERIKA saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back in the stretch and gave way.

TOUGH IT OUT saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch then angled back in, bid inside under urging, gained the lead past midstretch, inched away and held. MY MAN CHUCKLES came off the rail into the backstretch and chased outside a rival, went three deep into and on the second turn, was fanned six wide into the stretch and rallied outside to get up for the place. LEWIS VALE chased outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, came out leaving the second turn, was fanned five wide into the stretch and rallied between horses to be edged for second. EL TOVAR angled in and chased inside, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch, took a short lead four wide in midstretch, continued off the rail and was edged for a minor award. MUCHOS BESOS dueled outside a rival, put a head in front on the backstretch, fought back outside that one on the second turn, was between foes in midstretch and weakened in the final furlong. PICK ONE stalked off the rail then inside leaving the backstretch, came out into the second turn and four wide into the stretch and also weakened in the final furlong. ROARING RULE angled in and dueled inside, regained the advantage on the second turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch, was between foes in midstretch and also weakened.

EXPLORER had good early speed and set a pressured pace inside, inched away on the turn, kicked clear, was shaken up with the reins to widen in midstretch and proved best under a steady hand ride. FLAGSTAFF chased outside then between foes on the backstretch, continued alongside a foe on the turn, swung four wide into the stretch, drifted in some and was clearly second best. CALABASAS broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail, went outside a rival on the turn and three deep into the stretch and edged a foe for third. HENRY COUNTY stalked between horses then inside on the turn and into the stretch and was edged for the show. JULIUS stalked outside then four wide leaving the backstretch and on the turn, angled in off the rail into the stretch and weakened. CARIBBEAN (AUS) chased inside, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. HOLIDAY BAY settled between horses then chased off the rail, continued outside on the turn and five wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. HAYNE'S PAL prompted the pace between horses then stalked between foes on the turn, angled in entering the stretch and gave way. HERMANO saved ground off the pace, continued inside on the turn and into the stretch and failed to menace. BENEFICENT bobbled at the start, pressed the pace three deep, stalked on the turn, angled in some into the stretch and had nothing left for the drive.

POPULAR KID stalked between horses then a bit off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch, bid three deep under urging past the eighth pole, gained the lead in deep stretch and inched away late. TRAPALANDA four wide into the first turn, stalked off the rail then between foes, continued just off the inside on the second turn, bid outside the pacesetter into the stretch, took a short lead in midstretch, fought back inside the winner in deep stretch but could not quite match that one in the final stages. JAY MAKES US LAUGH had speed four wide then angled in and set the pace just off the rail, found the inside on the second turn, fought back into the stretch and until past midstretch and bested the others. PLAIN WRAP broke a bit slowly, went four wide into the first turn then stalked three deep, continued outside the winner on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. ROLLS ROYCE DEAL dropped back and saved ground off the pace to the stretch, split horses in upper stretch and lacked a rally. INFORMALITY chased inside, came off the rail on the second turn and outside a rival into the stretch and gave way. SHAYMIN was in a good position stalking the pace inside, dropped back along the rail on the second turn and also gave way.

WINNING ELEMENT stalked inside then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, took the lead outside a foe while drifting in some in midstretch, battled under left handed urging and inched away late. EXTREME HEAT had speed outside a rival then inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, came a bit off the rail into the stretch and held second. HOT AMERICAN saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, and got up between foes late for the show. DREAMS OF VALOR stalked outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for third. TASTE'S LEGEND angled in and tugged his way along to stalk the pace outside a rival, bid outside the runner-up on the second turn, was between horses in upper stretch and was outfinished. FOR HIM saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside into and through the stretch and did not rally. TANIKO chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, angled in on the second turn, swung three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed response. DARE TO ENTER pulled early and steadied off heels on the first turn, chased off the rail to the stretch and lacked a further response.