Poll Analysis: Americans Say Outcome in Iraq Not Worth Costs

American enthusiasm for U.S. intervention in Iraq has waned, according to the latest Times poll. While nearly half of Americans said the situation in Iraq has been worth going to war over, a large minority disagreed, splitting along political and gender lines. The survey also uncovered widespread concern that the U.S. could get bogged down in Iraq, as well as little public taste for further military intervention in the region. While most see the action in Iraq as part of the war on terrorism, the president was given much higher marks for making the nation safe from terrorism than he was for his handling of Iraq.

Bush and Iraq

The persistent attacks against allied troops by anti-U.S. insurgents in Iraq and the other events of the last few months have taken their toll on the public’s view of George W. Bush’s Iraqi policy. More Americans disapprove than approve of the way the president is handling the situation in Iraq, a reversal from when it was measured last April. Bush’s job approval on Iraq dropped to 45% in the current survey from a high of 74% last April while disapproval more than doubled over that same period, climbing from 24% to 51%. Last April, a majority (54%) strongly approved of Bush’s handling of the Iraqi situation, but only 24% expressed such keenly positive feelings about it today.

While just over half (53%) said they trust the president and those who advise him to make the right decisions about handling the situation in Iraq, the April survey found three out of four trusting Bush and his advisors to make the right decisions in the handling of military action against Iraq. While the two questions cannot be compared directly, they do serve to illustrate the survey’s overall finding that the American public’s admiration of Bush’s Iraqi policy has cooled since last spring.

When it comes to the still-elusive Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the public continues to give President Bush the benefit of the doubt. A third said they remain convinced that WMD are hidden in Iraq and will be found eventually, while 29% said that while they believe that there are no WMD to be found, the president was misled by inaccurate intelligence. Just 26% think that Bush exaggerated the threat in order to build support for the war. Most of those who think he exaggerated the threat expressed condemnation of him for doing so, saying that it was not justified.

While three in five said they think of the situation in Iraq as part of the overall war against terrorism, Americans gave Bush much higher marks for his handling of terrorism in general than they handed out for his handling of Iraq. Nearly three in five said they approved of what he’d done to make the nation more secure from terrorist attack, including 35% who characterized their approval as “strong.” Another 35% disapproved of his job in this area. Similarly, about three in five said that Bush’s policies on terrorism and national security have made the country more secure, compared to 12% who said it is now less secure and 27% who said it has made no difference one way or the other.

War and Reconstruction

Most Americans (86%) expressed concern that the U.S. could get bogged down in a long and costly effort in Iraq. Even three out of four Republicans and 82% of conservatives said they were concerned. They also aren’t holding out much hope that the lethal toll Iraqi insurgents are taking on American troops will decrease in the near future. More than one in four said they foresee that a lot more troops will be killed in the coming six months than were lost since last April when the president declared the cessation of major hostilities. Two in 10 said they think that the number of casualties will increase some over that period, while only 15% predicted casualties will decrease.

Four in ten say that they think Bush and his advisors have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq but 52% see confusion at the top when it comes to Iraq. Democrats (70%) and independents (55%) are particularly concerned. However, Bush’s party base of Republicans disagree, with nearly three out of four saying that the president’s plan is clear.

There was no public consensus on how long troops should stay in Iraq, on how many should be committed or what the goals should be for an extended stay. A plurality of 41% supported keeping troops in Iraq long enough to restore order, but not necessarily until a democracy is established if it means continued U.S. casualties. A third said that establishing a free government is a goal worth the continued loss of U.S. lives, while 19% would like to see the U.S. bring its troops on home whether order is restored to Iraq or not.

Similarly, opinion was spread over whether a troop build up or removal would do more toward accomplishing U.S. goals in Iraq, although a majority would like to see the U.N. take the lead. One in four wanted more troops sent to Iraq in order to speed up reconstruction and help insure stability. Just over a third wanted the number of troops decreased in an effort to more quickly hand over to the Iraqis the running of their own country. Three in ten thought the size of the U.S. commitment of troops should stay about the same as it is today. A majority (53%) now said that they’d like to see the U.N. take over reconstruction tasks in Iraq, compared to 38% who thought the U.S. should retain control.

Americans have come to see the ongoing conflict in Iraq as costing too much for what the country is getting in return. Only three in 10 considered the establishment of an Iraqi democracy to be a goal worth the expense of U.S. lives, 59% said that the outcome of the war in Iraq was not worth the U.S. military lives lost, and 57% said that it was not worth the financial expense. More than half (53%) said that they don’t approve of the $87 billion appropriation for reconstruction costs in Iraq requested by Bush and passed by Congress last month, compared to 42% who approved of that allocation of funds.

While the survey found that two-thirds of Americans do see the promotion of democracy in the Middle East as a worthy goal, there was not a great deal of support for backing up that objective with U.S. military might. Exactly half of those polled said they only supported promotion of democracy in the region if it did not include the use of military force while just fourteen percent said they view it as a goal worth U.S. military intervention. Just under three in 10 said the country should not be engaged in promotion of democracy in the Middle East at all and 7% weren’t sure.

In fact, the Iraqi situation may be pushing Americans toward a less interventionist stance in general. Only 21% said that they would support sending U.S. troops to Saudi Arabia if that country’s government should ask the U.S. for help in overcoming the recent attacks against the Saudi government by internal opposition groups. About three in 10 thought it would be okay to send civilian advisors, 7% said we should send both military and civilian help and three in ten said the U.S. should provide no help at all in that situation.

Iraq As A Political Issue

When Democratic primary voters were asked if they preferred a candidate who opposed the U.S. war with Iraq or one who favored it, by 46% to 39% they said their ideal candidate would be one who had had opposed the war.

Note: Democratic primary voters includes registered Democrats and, in some states, independents and other voters who are permitted to vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in that state. It is a more centrist group than those who feel most closely aligned with the Democrats no matter how — or if — they are registered to vote. Four in ten of the Democratic primary voters self identify as moderate, 34% liberal and 25% conservative. By comparison, 28% of those who identify with the Democrats say they are moderate, compared with 42% liberal and 29% conservative.

When asked if they would still vote for a candidate who agreed with them on every other issue but disagreed about Iraq, 24% of Democrat primary voters said they would, 20% said they would not and 47% said that it made no difference to their vote one way or the other.

Western and Southern voters were evenly split on this issue, while those in the East preferred an anti-war candidate by 10 percentage points and Midwesterners by twice that margin.

Gender Gap

There is a definite gender divide in Americans viewpoint on Iraq.

Men divided 50% to 47% over Bush’s handling of Iraq while women were more likely to rate Bush negatively by seventeen points. More than half of men said they thought that the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over compared to 39% who said it wasn’t, while women were more closely divided, 48% who thought it wasn’t to 42% who thought it was. Six in 10 men trust Bush and his administration to make the right decisions in Iraq, while only 47% of women do. Ninety-two percent of women worry about getting bogged down in Iraq and 79% of men share their concern.

Along the same lines, 42% of women would like to decrease the U.S. military presence in Iraq, compared to 28% of men. Fifty-eight percent of women disapprove of spending another $87 billion on reconstruction of Iraq while men split 49% for to 48% against.

Nearly half (49%) of male Democratic primary voters preferred a pro-war candidate compared to 55% of females who expressed a preference for a candidate who had taken a stand against the war.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,345 adults nationwide, including 1,144 registered voters and 662 Democratic primary and caucus voters, by telephone Nov. 15–18. Democratic primary and caucus voters are defined as registered Democrats and, in some states, independents and other voters who are permitted to vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their respective states. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample of adults was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is 3 percentage points in either direction; among Democratic primary/caucus voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.