O.C. Race a Wild Ride

For 17 years, former Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) represented one of the most Republican districts in Congress, after besting 17 other candidates. Now, 17 more are on the ballot to succeed him.

The result is a political free-for-all in coastal Orange County where candidates are struggling to capture the attention of District 48’s 400,000 potential voters, including surfers and millionaires in Newport Beach, academics in Irvine and families in San Juan Capistrano.

Getting the most attention and campaign money are two well-known Republican politicians from Irvine: state Sen. John Campbell and former Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer. They are fighting it out with campaign mailers, cable television ads, phone calls to voters and endorsements in an election expected to draw only the most committed voters.

“The early campaigning started when people were on vacation and getting ready for school, so people aren’t focused on it,” said political consultant Scott Hart of Newport Beach, who isn’t working for any candidate.

Since Cox resigned Aug. 2 to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the campaigning has begun in earnest. The candidates will appear on an Oct. 4 special primary election ballot to replace him.

The election, though, comes with a twist. All candidates will be listed together, and voters can choose any candidate, regardless of party. If no one gets a majority, the top vote-getters from each of the five political parties advance to a Dec. 6 vote.

The appeals to potential voters are many: American Independent Party candidate Jim Gilchrist of Aliso Viejo, founder of a group of volunteers who set up patrols at the U.S.-Mexico border, attended this month’s GOP conclave in Anaheim and welcomed help from Republicans who support his stand against illegal immigration.

Republican John Kelly, one of Cox’s challengers in 1988 and the owner of a Tustin men’s store, bashed the former congressman for becoming a millionaire during his time in office. Democrat Tom Pallow, a marketing consultant from Santa Ana, acknowledged that he may have performed political hari-kari in the wealthy district by advocating higher personal income taxes, which he said are necessary to balance the budget.

In a targeted move, attorney Steve Young, a Democrat from Newport Beach, has spent most of his money on cable ads aimed at the concentration of Democrats in Leisure World in Laguna Woods, who tend to have a relatively higher vote turnout.

Hoping to bolster her chances, Brewer sent mailers to Democrats with absentee ballot applications, arguing that she was a better fit for the moderate-minded district than Campbell.

And the state and county Republican parties, worried about Brewer’s popularity among Democrats, swiftly passed rare pre-primary endorsements for Campbell. He also boasts an endorsement from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Both Campbell and Brewer have spent significant sums of their own money -- $350,000 for Brewer, $250,000 for Campbell -- to help fund campaign mailers, cable television advertisements and phone calls to voters.

Campbell raised an additional $550,000 through mid-September, according to federal campaign reports, with about $110,000 from conservative political action committees. Brewer has collected $230,000, much from women’s groups and activist groups supporting abortion rights.

Campbell has assumed front-runner status because, as an elected official, he already represents most of the district. Thanks to revenue from the sale of his car dealerships, he also has ample campaign cash.

Several candidates recalled his absence from a handful of forums where the rest of the would-be members of Congress hashed out such topics as the war in Iraq, the price of oil, education spending and illegal immigration.

“John Campbell refuses to stand in front of the very people whose vote he wants,” Brewer said after Campbell skipped a candidate forum last week in Irvine sponsored by the city and UC Irvine.

Campbell said he didn’t attend the forums because of his legislative duties and other campaign commitments. Voters are less interested in where he’s been, he said, and more interested in where he stands on illegal immigration, taxes and the federal budget, and the war in Iraq and national security.

“We’re doing everything we can, and we’ll be walking precincts the weekend before the election,” he said. “We don’t have a lot of time.”

If trends hold, somewhat less than 25% of voters are likely to participate in the special election, with many casting absentee ballots. The question of turnout took its own twist when the date for the election was set during Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, and the monthlong Islamic holiday of Ramadan, prompting outrage from religious groups.

County officials responded by setting up early voting locales around the district, which are listed on the registrar of voters website at www.oc.ca.gov./election/candidate/early.htm.

Campbell’s advisors, who, with Brewer’s team are the only ones polling voters, expect that fewer than 100,000 people will cast ballots.

Special elections rarely draw much interest from voters. In Orange County’s last special primary election, held in January 2003, Supervisor Bill Campbell won amid a 13% turnout. A special legislative election Sept. 13 in Los Angeles County drew only 18% of eligible voters.

Voters have seen cable ads by Campbell and Brewer, as well as an ad critical of Brewer by a conservative political group, Club for Growth, which endorsed Campbell. Brewer’s campaign later leapt at a chance to criticize the ad after the group was charged in an unrelated case with violating federal political contribution limits.

Two weeks ago, former Democratic congressman Jerry Patterson appealed on Brewer’s behalf to Democrats in the district, which stretches from Newport Beach to San Juan Capistrano, with a tiny slice of Santa Ana. Her campaign has eagerly sought Democrats and Independents, who will be eligible to vote for her in this election.

“Marilyn is pro-choice, in favor of stem-cell research, wants to protect our beaches and oceans, and supports importing low-cost prescription drugs from Canada,” Patterson wrote in a mailer, highlighting Brewer’s platform. “As Democrats, we can have a Republican we can agree with on some issues ... or a Republican we will never agree with.”

Campbell has focused on the pursuit of Republicans, distributing a dozen mailers so far. The literature promotes his opposition to tax increases, abortion and illegal immigration. He said the campaign also will send appeals to Democrats and Independents.

In such a short race, Campbell and Brewer have relied on endorsements large and small, with Campbell lining up the most local elected officials. He also has the backing of political committees for the Free Enterprise Fund and the National Taxpayers Union. Brewer has featured her endorsement by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in cable and mail ads.

Campbell is hoping absentee ballots will give him more than 50% of the vote and negate the need for a Dec. 6 special general election. So far, about 15,000 voters have cast ballots by absentee. The district has nearly twice as many Republicans as Democrats, 202,000 to 109,000.

Other Republicans in the race are dentist David R. Crouch and physician Don Udall, both of Corona del Mar; lawyer Scott MacCabe of Newport Beach; Realtor Marsha A. Morris of Laguna Hills; businessman Guy E. Mailly of Irvine; Coast Guard veteran Edward A. Suppe of Huntington Beach; and businessman Marshall S. Sanders of Santa Ana.

On the Democratic side, district representatives for the county party have endorsed Young, whose campaign momentum briefly faltered after he acknowledged being tardy with child-support payments. UC Irvine professor John Graham of Irvine, who faced Cox three times, has promoted building an international airport at Camp Pendleton, while teacher Bea Foster of Santa Ana got into the race to protest the war in Iraq.

Rounding out the ballot are Libertarian Bruce Cohen of Aliso Viejo, a Realtor; and Santa Ana teacher Bea Tiritilli of the Green Party.

The crush of candidates has left some voters puzzled over who’s running and who isn’t. Always confusing are the Orange County Campbells, no relation to each other. Bill is the county supervisor, and John the candidate is the state legislator.

Hart, the Newport Beach political consultant, said he posted a sign for John Campbell on his lawn two weeks ago, “and my neighbor came over and said, ‘I didn’t know Bill Campbell was running for Congress.’ ”