Bilbray Secures GOP Victory in Closely Watched 50th District House Contest

Republican Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby to win the final seven months of the term of disgraced ex-Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham in a race where both national parties fought hard and spent freely in an effort to shape the fall elections nationwide.

Bilbray got 49% of the vote to Busby’s 45%. Two right-of-center minor candidates got 5%.

Elsewhere in the state, Democratic and Republican incumbents, capitalizing on the power of their offices and California’s heavily slanted congressional districts, easily defeated challengers in Tuesday’s primary balloting.

Though Bilbray, 55, will go to Washington, he and Busby will have a rematch in November for a full two-year term representing the 50th Congressional District.

Busby, 55, a school board member in suburban Cardiff-by-the-Sea, made Cunningham’s conviction and an alleged “culture of corruption” under the Bush administration the focus of her campaign. Bilbray, a former three-term congressman, made his hard-line stance against illegal immigration his centerpiece.

As the only special election on a nationwide election day stuffed with party primaries, Democrats hoped for the beginning of a trend that might help them wrest control of the House.

And the GOP was hoping that a decisive victory in the 50th would show that, despite the president’s slumping poll numbers, voters are not looking to dump Republicans from office.

Although more than $10 million was spent by both sides, much of it on attack ads and mailers, Busby’s results conformed to the last two presidential campaigns in which the Democratic candidates received 44% and 45% in the 50th district.

“Never have so many spent so much to accomplish so little,” said Carl Luna, political science instructor at San Diego Mesa College.

The 50th, which includes the northern part of San Diego and several suburbs, has long been considered a safe district for the GOP, which has a 44%-30% registration edge over Democrats, with 22% independents.

Democrats took heart that Busby did better than any of Cunningham’s opponents in previous elections, including Busby, who received 36% in 2004. MoveOn.Org noted that Busby did well among independents.

But Tom Reynolds, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the result showed that local elections are “about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues” rather than bellwethers of national trends.

Though supporting Bush on Iraq, Bilbray split with him on illegal immigration, calling Bush’s views tantamount to “amnesty.” Late in the campaign, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) bowed out of a fundraiser for Bilbray, apparently over differences on the issue. McCain has favored proposals to allow illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship.

Still, the national GOP put a major push on for Bilbray in the campaign’s final days, including an automated phone call to voters from First Lady Laura Bush.

Although he has long experience in office, Bilbray had been out of the public spotlight since being defeated in 2000 in a congressional district south of the 50th. To run in the 50th district, he moved into his mother’s house in Carlsbad, leading to criticism that he was a carpetbagger.

Gary Jacobson, a congressional expert and political science professor at UC San Diego, said that, short of some extraordinary event, there was nothing Democrat Busby could do to win in the heavily Republican 50th.

“There are no competitive house districts in California -- zero,” Jacobson said.

Indeed, incumbents prevailed up and down the state Tuesday.

In a coastal district in Los Angeles County, Rep. Jane Harman (D-Venice) easily defeated a challenger from the left, Marcy Winograd, who ran on an antiwar platform.

Roy Behr, Harman’s political consultant, said Harman achieved the victory even though Winograd’s spending -- she put up to $200,000 of her own money into the race -- may have exceeded what Harman spent in the campaign’s final months. Harman has little to fear in November when she faces Republican Brian Gibson.

“There is not a single Democratic seat that is in danger of being lost in November, and there probably is not a seat that is in danger of being lost with less than 55% or 60% of the vote,” Behr said.

In Northern California, Rep. John T. Doolittle (R-Roseville) and Rep. Richard W. Pombo (R-Tracy) attracted attention for accepting campaign money from Jack Abramoff, the Washington lobbyist at the center of a widening scandal. But both trounced their Republican challengers.

Pombo’s primary foe, former Rep. Pete McCloskey, vowed to campaign for Pombo’s Democratic challenger -- Gerald “Jerry” McNerney. Pombo defeated McNerney by 61% to 38% two years ago.

“Reapportionment makes these districts very difficult to assault,” said Wayne Johnson, Pombo’s campaign manager. “Republicans are going to vote for Republicans, and Democrats are going to vote for Democrats.”

In the heavily Republican district that includes Kern County, former Assembly Republican leader Kevin McCarthy easily won his primary to replace his mentor, retiring Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Bakersfield).

Given the GOP’s registration lead, McCarthy is a virtual lock to win the seat in November, and along with Bilbray would be one of two new congressional members from California.

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Perry reported from San Diego, Morain from Los Angeles.