As Vote Nears, Schwarzenegger Surges Ahead

Just over five weeks before election day, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a commanding lead over his Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, who has built scant support beyond a core base of liberals, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

If the Nov. 7 election were held today, likely voters would favor the Republican governor over Angelides 50% to 33%.

The survey found an abundance of grim signs for Angelides, including a failure to match Schwarzenegger’s success in rallying voters of his own party strongly behind his candidacy. Just 61% of Democrats support Angelides, while 88% of Republicans favor Schwarzenegger. And independents, a crucial swing vote, support Schwarzenegger over Angelides 49% to 31%.

The poll also showed that Angelides suffers from one of the main problems that plagued California’s last Democratic governor, Gray Davis: a lack of public confidence in his leadership skills. Asked who has stronger leadership qualities, 60% of likely voters say Schwarzenegger and 20% say Angelides. Even a plurality of Democrats sees Schwarzenegger as a stronger leader.

The poll also found a new rise in the governor’s popularity, further progress in his steady recovery from the debacle of his 2005 ballot initiatives, which voters resoundingly rejected.

In a nearly complete reversal, 56% of California voters now approve of Schwarzenegger’s job performance and 41% disapprove. In October 2005, 37% approved and 59% disapproved.

“He seems to have become a little bit more the governor of the people, rather than the governor of the Republicans,” poll respondent Jack Phillips, a Democrat who lives in the Sacramento suburb of Folsom, said in a follow-up interview.

“Maria must’ve got to him,” added Phillips, 67, in a nod to the Kennedy family lineage of Maria Shriver, Schwarzenegger’s wife. The retired railroad marketing man plans to vote for Schwarzenegger.

Overall, the poll affirmed the dominating force of Schwarzenegger’s personality on California politics, showing his capacity -- in a state that strongly favors Democrats -- to break a national tide running against Republicans.

It also demonstrated his outsmarting of Angelides in seeking out the political center, where statewide elections are won in California. For months, Schwarzenegger has been piling up agreements with Democratic lawmakers that widen his electoral appeal, including laws to combat global warming, raise the minimum wage and cut prescription drug costs.

Still, the election dynamics could change in the campaign’s final weeks. Both candidates and their allies are spending millions on advertisements, which could shift public opinion.

The survey, supervised by Times Poll director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,312 registered voters, including 989 deemed likely to vote. The survey was conducted by telephone from Sept. 23 to 28. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Schwarzenegger’s political recovery coincides with a brightening mood among California voters: 42% say things in the state are generally going in the right direction, up from a paltry 27% last October. Still, 45% say things are seriously off on the wrong track.

As for what’s on their minds, likely voters name illegal immigration as the most important problem facing the state, followed by education and the economy. Republicans are most concerned about illegal immigration, while Democrats rank education as most important.

In the race for governor, relatively few likely voters have yet to make up their minds: 9% are undecided.

Eight percent favor candidates other than Schwarzenegger or Angelides.

For Angelides, the strongest support comes from liberal Democrats: 70% support him. Latinos also heavily favor Angelides over Schwarzenegger, 57% to 22%.

But as a whole, the poll illustrates a bleak landscape for Angelides. He falls short of majority support in every region of the state, even in the Bay Area, where Democrats normally run up landslide margins against Republicans.

In Los Angeles County, another Democratic stronghold although a less solid one, the race is nearly even: 41% favor Angelides, 37% Schwarzenegger.

In the rest of Southern California, Schwarzenegger trounces Angelides by a 41-point margin. In the Central Valley, the governor runs 37 points ahead. Both areas lean Republican.

The geography also looks bad for Angelides along the coastal-inland divide that has increasingly defined California elections. In counties along the coastline, which normally tilt strongly toward Democrats, Schwarzenegger is ahead 45% to 37%.

In the Republican-leaning counties of inland California, the governor leads by more than 2 to 1.

On major issues, Angelides also faces trouble. Californians usually favor Democrats on education and the environment, but the survey found likely voters split on whether Angelides or Schwarzenegger would do a better job in those areas. And by wide margins, they say Schwarzenegger would do a better job on the state budget, the economy and immigration.

The poll also found problems for Angelides on taxes, a top concern cited by those with an unfavorable impression of him.

Schwarzenegger ads have highlighted billions of dollars in tax increases that Angelides has supported over the years. Diane Smith, a retired Trinity County child-care provider, said she knew virtually nothing about Angelides apart from what she had seen in those ads, which show the Democrat walking backward.

“It looks like he’s floating away,” said Smith, an independent who is leaning toward Schwarzenegger.

Phillips, the Folsom Democrat supporting Schwarzenegger, called Angelides a “big-spending liberal” who would “follow in Gray Davis’ footsteps -- spend, spend, spend and put us into debt like there’s no end to spending money.”

Angelides has proposed tax increases for corporations and Californians who make more than $250,000 a year, along with tax cuts for those making less than $100,000 a year and for small businesses. A majority of Democrats and liberals say his tax agenda makes them more likely to vote for Angelides.

“We should help people who have less money and tax those that have more,” said retired teacher Donna Doyka of Manhattan Beach, a Democrat who supports Angelides.

But the Angelides tax agenda is unpopular with Republicans and conservatives. And a majority of them say Schwarzenegger’s promise not to raise taxes makes them more likely to back his reelection.

Another challenge for Angelides is ethics, a central line of attack against him in the Democratic primary and one that he has tried to turn back on Schwarzenegger.

On the question of which candidate has more honesty and integrity to serve as governor, 43% say Schwarzenegger and 25% say Angelides.

Also problematic for the Democrat is his lukewarm support among union members, a key constituency of his party: They support him over Schwarzenegger, but only by 43% to 37%.

More than half of union members think Schwarzenegger has stronger leadership qualities. And 52% have a favorable impression of Schwarzenegger, while 47% view Angelides in a positive light. Organized labor has been the No. 1 source of campaign money for Angelides.

The poll also underlined Schwarzenegger’s edge on personality and public image. It found that 60% of likely voters hold a favorable impression of him, while 38% see Angelides in a positive light.

Also unsettling for Angelides, who was virtually unknown to most Californians before the campaign: 43% of likely voters hold an unfavorable impression of him. That negative view was inspired in part by months of television attack ads run against Angelides by Schwarzenegger and the treasurer’s spring primary rival, state Controller Steve Westly.

The survey also cast new doubt on the Angelides strategy of stressing Schwarzenegger’s political ties to President Bush. Among those who view the governor unfavorably -- 39% of likely voters -- 2% named his support for Bush’s reelection as the reason.

Still, Bush remains unpopular in California: 40% of voters approve of his job performance and 58% disapprove. Though it is dismaying for an incumbent, that marks a rebound from the record low that he hit in an April Times poll, which found 31% approved and 66% disapproved.

As for the governor, the new poll found his support more solid than his challenger’s: More than three quarters of those who favor Schwarzenegger say their vote is definite, but fewer than two-thirds of Angelides backers say the same.

Schwarzenegger’s strongest blocs of support are men, Republicans, conservatives, whites, older voters and residents of California’s inland counties.

Women are less enthusiastic: Though likely male voters favor Schwarzenegger over his rival by 57% to 30%, likely female voters prefer the governor 42% to 37%.

michael.finnegan@latimes.com.

Jill Darling Richardson, Times associate polling director, and Claudia Vaughn, data management supervisor, contributed to this report.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Likely voters like Schwarzenegger

Question: What is your impression of.....

Schwarzenegger

Favorable: 60%

Unfavorable: 39%

Haven’t heard/don’t know: 1%

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Question: What is your impression of.....

Angelides

Favorable: 38%

Unfavorable: 43%

Haven’t heard/don’t know: 19%

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Q: Why do you have a favorable/unfavorable impression of.....

(up to two responses accepted)*

Schwarzenegger

Favorable

Has done a good job as governor: 23%

Honest: 16%

Strong leader: 13%

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Unfavorable

Not honest: 17%

Poor record on education: 15%

Ineffective: 11%

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Q: Why do you have a favorable/unfavorable impression of.....

(up to two responses accepted)*

Angelides

Favorable

No particular reason: 22%

Honest: 13%

Democrat: 12%

Experience as state treasurer: 12%

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Unfavorable

Not honest: 18%

No particular reason: 15%

His Tax Plan: 15%

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Q: Who do you think will do a better job with.....

*--* Schwarzenegger Angelides Both/Neither Don’t Know California’s 52% 29 12 7 economy State’s budget 49% 29 12 10 Immigration 43% 30 17 10 Public education 40% 38 12 10 Environmental 37% 36 13 14 issues

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Q: Who do you think has more.....

*--* Schwarzenegger Angelides Both/Neither Don’t Know Leadership 60% 20 12 8 qualities Honesty and integrity in job as governor 43% 25 25 7

*--*

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Q: What do you think is the most important problem facing California today? (up to two responses accepted)*

*--* All likely Voters Democrats Independent Republicans Illegal Immigration 34% 21% 32% 50% Education 26% 27% 29% 22% Economy 12% 15% 11% 10%

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Notes: All results are among likely voters; (*) top responses

Times Poll results are also available at latimes.com/timespoll.

How the poll was conducted: The Times Poll contacted 1,868 adults in California by telephone Sept. 23 through 28. Among them were 1,312 registered voters, of whom 989 were deemed likely to vote in the Nov. 7 general election. Likely voters were determined by a screening process that included questions on intention to vote, certainty of vote, interest in the campaign and voting history. Telephone numbers were randomly selected from a list of all exchanges in the state, allowing calls to listed and unlisted numbers. Multiple attempts were made to call each number. Additional Latino voters were contacted in a separate random sample to allow more accurate analysis of their subgroup. Adults in the entire sample were weighted slightly to conform with census proportions for sex, ethnicity, age, education, region and the secretary of state’s report of party registration. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by such factors as question wording and the order in which questions were presented. Interviews in the Latino supplemental sample were conducted by Interviewing Service of America in Van Nuys. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.Mark Hafer Los Angeles Times

Source: L.A. Times Poll

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Register to vote

The deadline for registering to vote in the Nov. 7 election is Oct. 23.

Voters can register by mailing in one of the forms available at most Los Angeles County government buildings, as well as at city halls, fire stations, libraries and post offices.

For more information, call the Los Angeles County registrar of voters at (800) 481-8683 or visit the registrar’s website at www.lavote.net.

Los Angeles Times

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Governor’s race (from A1)

A Times poll finds many grim signs for Democrat Phil Angelides, who five weeks before election day trails far behind Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Angelides has built scant support beyond a core base of liberals.

Choice for governor, among likely voters:

Schwarzenegger: 50%

Angelides: 33%

Other candidates: 8%

Don’t know: 9%

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Source: L.A. Times Poll