Presidential Also-Ran Shows No Signs of Fading Away

He has neither gained weight nor grown a beard, headed to Europe nor exiled himself to some distant ivory tower.

Instead, Sen. John F. Kerry is back on Capitol Hill, working hard to fashion himself into something rare in American politics: a presidential also-ran who isn’t an afterthought.

Since losing in November, the Massachusetts Democrat has delivered a series of speeches on healthcare, electoral reform and military preparedness. He helped lead the unsuccessful opposition to Condoleezza Rice, President Bush’s pick for secretary of State, and Alberto R. Gonzales, Bush’s choice for attorney general.

Kerry has given more than $2 million in leftover campaign funds to various Democratic candidates and causes, and continues to tap his nationwide donor base to raise money for the party.

In short, the 61-year-old senator seems a lot more like a candidate preparing to seek the White House than one who just failed in his bid -- though he insists “it’s too early to even be thinking about talking about those things.”

“I’ve got a lot of big issues on the table,” he said in an interview last week. “I don’t want them clouded by any politics.”

The prospect of a repeat Kerry candidacy -- perhaps facing his old running mate, former Sen. John Edwards, in the primaries -- draws a decidedly mixed response. Republicans express delight.

“They won’t be able to get out of the wilderness until they move beyond the Dean and Kerry party,” scoffed Matt Dowd, a senior strategist for Bush’s reelection campaign, referring to newly elected Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. “I guess they have to get to the final stages of being sick before they get better.”

Many Democrats are skeptical, if not adamantly opposed.

“The question for Sen. Kerry that he has to answer is: Why would he win this time in 2008 when he wasn’t able to pull it off in 2004?” said Gordon Fischer, the recently departed head of the Iowa Democratic Party, who is reserving judgment on a possible comeback try by Kerry.

Dick Harpootlian, a longtime party leader in South Carolina, was more blunt. “I think John Kerry is a decent, thoughtful, heroic American,” Harpootlian said. “I do not think he can win the presidency.”

Still, the fact that Kerry has stayed so prominently engaged in Washington and seems at least a plausible contender in 2008 is a notable departure from the ritual shunning that often faces those who win their party’s nomination, only to lose in November.

“Parties just don’t renominate failed candidates,” said Thomas Schaller, a University of Maryland expert on the modern presidential selection process. “Failed presidential candidates tend to fade into history.”

Among the losing nominees of the last 20 years, former Vice President Walter F. Mondale went back to practicing law in Minnesota; Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis finished an unhappy third term before leaving politics for academia; and Bob Dole, the onetime Republican leader in the Senate, became a lobbyist and Viagra pitchman.

Kerry’s most recent predecessor, former Vice President Al Gore, virtually disappeared for months after the 2000 race, traveling to Europe and surfacing as the butt of late-night jokes about his increased heft and facial hair. He eventually lost the weight and shaved his beard, but opted not to run again in 2004, much to the relief of the Democratic Party establishment.

“Gore had a built-in advantage and blew it,” Schaller said of the peace and prosperity surrounding the 2000 contest, which Bush won after the lengthy dispute over Florida. “Kerry had a built-in disadvantage and kept it close.”

Richard Nixon is the one candidate in the last 50 years who returned from the political dead to win not just his party’s nomination but also the White House, though he skipped an election between tries. He did what Kerry has started doing, collecting scores of political IOUs by raising money and stumping for candidates across the country.

But Nixon also benefited in 1968 from a lack of strong primary opposition -- something that is not likely if Kerry runs. Edwards and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York are among a pack of potential candidates already eyeing a 2008 bid.

“My belief is that John Edwards will decide about running ... based on if he thinks that his skill set makes him ready to be president and if he’s prepared to lead,” said Ed Turlington, a close advisor to the former North Carolina senator, signaling that Edwards would not defer to Kerry. “I think he believes at this point it’s way to early to make that decision.”

Kerry would not discuss his former running mate, suggesting that would be premature.

That said, the senator has scarcely slowed down since winding up his last presidential run. He has created a political action committee to promote his agenda, and added about 70,000 people to his e-mail list since November, bringing the total to nearly 2.8 million names, according to aides. He also has stayed in touch with supporters in such key states as early-voting Iowa, where he drew about 200 people to a thank-you appearance in December.

“We’re going to continue this fight,” Kerry said then, speaking at the same Des Moines hotel where he celebrated the come-from-behind Iowa caucus win that launched him to the nomination.

In Washington, Kerry has sought to carve himself a high-profile role on issues such as defense, healthcare and Social Security -- the latter two falling under the purview of the Senate Finance Committee, on which he serves.

“I’m not trying to claim some mantle. I’m not trying to assert myself in any special way,” Kerry said in the interview. He noted that he introduced legislation to expand children’s healthcare as the result of a campaign pledge. “I’m just trying to take the increased awareness of who I am that comes out of a campaign ... and translate that into a structure that can fight for those things” discussed in 2004.

“This is not a competitive thing,” he added. “There’s room for a lot of voices.”

Kerry infuriated many Democrats when it was revealed that he ended the presidential campaign with more than $14 million in the bank -- funds that critics argued could have made a difference in Ohio, where Bush narrowly won reelection. While insisting money did not determine November’s outcome, Kerry started making amends by donating $1 million apiece to the Democratic Party and its Senate campaign committee; $250,000 to help Democrats prevail in the extended gubernatorial recount in Washington state; and $100,000 to help the party win a Louisiana House seat in December. (Kerry also transferred $4 million to his Senate reelection committee, in case he decided to run again in 2008. Under Massachusetts law, he could seek both the presidency and a fifth term.)

He also began a round of attention-getting interviews, mixing mea culpas -- he should have responded more quickly to attacks on his combat record from fellow Vietnam veterans, Kerry says -- with observations on the difficulty of beating a wartime president.

“We did some amazing things,” Kerry said last month on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“We raised more money than any Democratic campaign in history. We involved more volunteers than any campaign in history. I won more votes than any candidate on the Democratic side has ever won in history.”

Which is why, some Democrats say, at the very least Kerry deserves to be considered again in 2008. “John Kerry came darn close,” said Kathleen Sullivan, Democratic chairwoman in the lead primary state of New Hampshire. “Darn close. I think that makes a difference.”

Kerry’s advantages -- near-universal name recognition, a vast fundraising base, a core of supporters in key states and the experience of having run before -- may allow him to put off a decision on 2008 much longer than others. In last week’s interview, he indicated he may not make up his mind much before 2007.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle Kerry faces is the feeling among many Democrats that he had his chance -- that with all that money, all those volunteers and a shaky economy, he still could not beat a president waging a controversial war and saddled with middling approval ratings.

“He never connected,” said Harpootlian, the South Carolina strategist, who suggested Kerry still had “a tremendous role to play” in national politics -- from his seat in the Senate.

Kerry brusquely disagreed. “I heard some of those things ... in Iowa, in New Hampshire,” he said of the states he swept to capture the Democratic nomination after months of up-close campaigning. “I think the voters there put the lie to it. I’ll stand by that.”