Medicare Hike Ruffles Retirees

Nedra Christensen, 74, leveled a baleful glance at what had to be the silliest question she’d heard in a long time, here in what is billed as the biggest and oldest master-planned retirement community in America.

Of course the 17% increase in Medicare premiums--the biggest in history --would hurt people like her, living month-to-month on a small fixed income, she said. And of course it’s going to propel her to the voting booth in November; when she gets there, it won’t be pretty for the president.

“Our benefits keep going down, and the cost of getting help keeps going up,” Christensen said as she made her way slowly from Fry’s Food & Drug to her white SUV.

When the increase was announced Friday, it sent a ripple through this famed retirement enclave of neat bungalows, drought-resistant lawns and active recreation centers. In interviews with more than a dozen older voters here this week, all said they were aware of the price jump, which is scheduled to go into effect next year.

Not everyone was as alarmed as the former laboratory technician and her husband, a retired crane operator at a Utah copper mine.

But almost everyone interviewed said they knew someone -- usually older and less well off than themselves -- who would feel the pinch of an extra $11.60 in premiums a month.

Reactions ran from panic -- from Christensen -- to “it’s just politics,” -- from Chuck Burns, 73, the retired owner of an electronics corporation in Dallas who has little patience with politicians of any stripe.

“It’s just like buying a loaf of bread. If it goes up, you’ve got to pay for it,” Burns said, while puffing on a cigarette and waiting in the shade for his wife to finish grocery shopping. No matter who’s in the White House, he said, “there’s no way to stop it.... I think it’s politics as usual.”

Announcement of the premium increase comes less than two months before voters go to the polls. In addition, nearly two-thirds of the battleground states, including Arizona, have a higher percentage of residents over 65 than the nation as a whole. And polls show that many Medicare recipients are already dissatisfied with controversial changes in the program enacted in December, which would add prescription drug coverage for some.

What this all means is that changes in Medicare -- the primary insurance program for people 65 and older -- could reverberate throughout the fall election, said political scientists who specialize in issues of aging.

“This year, given the salience of the Medicare drug benefit and the genuine disappointment of seniors in it and the increase in premiums ... it will reinforce and boost turnout among seniors even higher,” predicted Lawrence Jacobs, director of the 2004 Elections Project at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute. “It’s going to have an impact.”

America’s seniors are famous for voting more regularly than their younger counterparts, with citizens between 65 and 74 voting in greater numbers than any other age group, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In the 2000 presidential election, 72% of that age group voted, compared to 36% of citizens aged 18 to 24.

Which is why both parties have worked hard this election to reach out to the men and women who “turn out and are informed and tend to be focused on issues that affect them,” said Susan MacManus, a political scientist from the University of South Florida, Tampa. “They’ll read everything that comes into their homes. They watch more political television. They are the consummate informed voters.”

Or at least they try to be. Jean Baker, a retired federal worker who “got the Sun City itch” and moved here a year ago, sat in her car Tuesday night outside the Lakeview Center, a senior recreation complex that was doing double duty as a polling place for Arizona’s primary election.

A stack of pamphlets for various state and local races was spread out on the seat beside her. A deep frown of concentration was etched on her face. She takes her politics seriously, no matter how unfamiliar the names on the ballot in her new hometown.

She won’t have so much trouble in November; she’s a Bush supporter all the way. And, in fact, Baker said she thought the increase in the Medicare premium “is needed” to keep the program alive.

“We have to do something to save this for the younger generation,” said Baker, who was a receptionist for a Social Security office in Ohio when the program was born.

“I want my children and grandchildren to inherit this wonderful benefit. Yes, it’ll be difficult for some seniors. But they’ll get help from somewhere else.”

Like those in Florida and other Sun Belt retirement destinations, seniors in Arizona tend to be more affluent than their counterparts in the Rust Belt states, said Fred Solop, a political scientist at Northern Arizona University.

He said they had the money to move to places with warm winters, golf courses and planned activities from dance clubs to sewing classes. But they often live on fixed incomes. And they care when prices increase.

Mary E. Jessup, 66, had just finished her evening swim at the Lakeview Center. A recent retiree and Oakland transplant, she’d just used her Medicare card for the first time, “and it worked just fine.”

“Until you reach 65, you don’t think about [Medicare] much, and that’s a problem,” said Jessup, a retired receptionist.

The premium increase? “We don’t like it.... It doesn’t look good all the way around for the elderly.”

*

(Begin Text of Infobox)

Gray states

*

Because nearly two-thirds of the critical states in the November election have higher percentages of people age 65 and older than the national average, the Medicare premium increase is likely to reverberate, especially in retirement havens like Sun City, Ariz.

*--* % of population age State 65 and older in (electoral votes*) battleground states Arizona (10) 13.00% Arkansas (6) 14.0% Florida (27) 17.6% Iowa (7) 14.9% Maine (4) 14.4% Michigan (17) 12.3% Minnesota (10) 12.1% Missouri (11) 13.5% Nevada (5) 11.0% New Hampshire (4) 12.0% New Mexico (5) 11.7% Ohio (20) 13.3% Oregon (7) 12.8% Pennsylvania (21) 15.6% Washington (11) 11.2% West Virginia (5) 15.3% Wisconsin (10) 13.1%

*--*

National average: 12.4%

* Total number of electoral votes: 538; 270 needed to win presidency

Sources: 2000 U.S. Census; Federal Election Commission

Graphics reporting by Maria La Ganga