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Gates says troop infusion is making a difference in Afghanistan

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After two days in Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said he was convinced the massive infusion of American troops over the last year is turning around the 9-year-old war, even as U.S. soldiers remain locked in a grinding fight to control many parts of the country.

It was Gates’ most definitive statement yet endorsing the U.S. strategy to have Afghan forces formally take over lead security responsibility in more peaceful regions beginning in spring, while U.S. and Afghan forces fight together in the most violent regions through 2014.

In the past, Gates has said he has seen tentative signs of progress against Taliban militants. But on Wednesday, he said progress “has exceeded my expectations.”

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At the same time, Gates received sobering updates during his visit. Only a few hours before he appeared with Afghan President Hamid Karzai at a news conference in Kabul, Gates had been in restive Helmand province, where Maj. Gen. Richard Mills, the Marine commander in the southern province, said Marines were facing stiff resistance in Sangin, a longtime Taliban stronghold.

Mills said the fierce fighting was the logical consequence of the success Marines have had in driving insurgents out of former Helmand strongholds such as the city of Marja. “He’s got a hold on Sangin,” Mills said, referring to the insurgents. “The enemy is fighting with desperation.”

On Monday, a commander in eastern Afghanistan told him the Islamist insurgency remained potent. A U.S. official said the region had seen a 16% increase in the number of attacks from May through November compared with the same period in 2009. But the official also noted a 28% decrease in attacks that caused casualties to Afghan or Western forces.

U.S. officials concede that large parts of the south and east will probably remain too violent to permit large-scale withdrawal of U.S. and European troops in the near future.

But Gates, speaking in Kabul after a private meeting with Karzai, said he would return to Washington believing that “we will be able to achieve the key goals laid out by President Obama last year.”

His message — that the U.S. and its allies are winning but won’t succeed in their mission for at least four years — illustrates the difficult position the Obama administration finds itself in a year after dispatching 30,000 additional troops in an attempt to turn around the conflict.

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The Afghan army and police remain too fragile and poorly equipped to be able to prevent the Taliban from infiltrating back into already-cleared towns and villages without Marines and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces remaining nearby to assist, U.S. officials said.

For that reason, though security has improved in some areas, Mills said the process of turning over security responsibility to the Afghan army and police in Helmand will be “deliberate” and a “very, very subtle process.”

An upcoming White House assessment is expected to reiterate Obama’s plans for a drawdown beginning in July, without clarifying how many troops will come out and over what period. Those decisions will be based on conditions in Afghanistan as the date draws nearer, officials said.

Gates went from Helmand to neighboring Kandahar province, where he was told that the massive influx of U.S. forces is turning around the security situation in areas that have been under Taliban control for years.

But there were also reminders of how fragile the modest gains have been and how many additional personnel have been needed to make a difference.

An area in Kandahar that once had a Canadian army company of about 100 soldiers now has a full U.S. battalion of more than 800 soldiers, plus an Afghan army battalion.

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The result has been a noticeable improvement in security, said Lt. Col. Peter Benchoff, who briefed Gates during his visit to Zhari district outside Kandahar. “The insurgents are still around, and we’ve got some work to do, but it’s been going pretty well.”

The unit’s base used to be regularly attacked with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. The highway running outside the gates saw a roadside bomb attack almost every day. And a bazaar nearby had only a few open shops.

Col. Arthur Kandarian told reporters who flew in by helicopter with Gates that “four months ago you would not have been able to fly in here without getting shot at.”

Now the base hasn’t been attacked in weeks. Only two bombs have gone off on the highways since September, and the bazaar is beginning to revive. But that doesn’t mean the U.S. forces are near being ready to go home.

The biggest constraint, just as in Helmand, is that the Afghan battalion working alongside Benchoff’s men was formed only this year and isn’t ready to take over security. So that means the U.S. forces in Zhari are staying, probably for years, said Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez, who accompanied Gates to Zhari.

Eventually, the Afghans will take over when their capabilities improve, but that won’t be soon. “We are going to do this deliberately,” Rodriguez said.

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dcloud@latimes.com

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