Iraq’s Fate Could Shape Region’s Future

Iraq skims the brink of civil war and then whirls away, leaving behind a lingering unpredictability that threatens turmoil across a jittery Middle East that has begun modest steps toward democracy after decades of instability.

Although regional fears of being infected by sectarianism and Islamic militancy have loomed since U.S.-led forces deposed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein three years ago, they have become more urgent in recent weeks as rage between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in Iraq has led to hundreds of deaths.

For the broader Middle East, this violent spasm underscores how the region’s fate is bound to Iraq. A civil war could carve the country along Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish lines and quickly echo through other nations. Shiite-ruled Iran would probably exert more of its growing influence in the region by aiding Iraq’s majority Shiite population. Saudi Arabia and Jordan might intervene to help the minority Sunnis. And Turkey, long resistant to a free Kurdish state along its border, could send its army into heavily Kurdish northern Iraq.

“Iraq’s a bomb that can eventually explode beyond control,” said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst with the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. “Civil war may not be imminent, but what kind of government will you have there? The danger is over the long term, and it’s creating a lot of apprehension. What will the Shiites do? Where will the foreign fighters go? You have to look from all dimensions.”

These problems threaten to further agitate historical animosities between the two main branches of Islam. Saudi Arabia and other mainly Sunni countries bordering Iraq have Shiite populations that might be roused if Iraq splintered in sectarian war. Many Sunni Arab capitals are increasingly suspicious of Iran’s hand in Iraq, and tensions have risen around the nuclear aspirations of Tehran, which the U.S. contends is intent on producing weapons.

A recent report by the International Crisis Group found that Shiite influence in the region “is fast becoming the paramount concern. This perception triggered Jordan’s King Abdullah’s warning

The report states that Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, want a unified Iraq because their own fragilities may not survive unrest at home. However, the assessment adds: “Should neighboring states conclude either that Shiite influence has become a strategic threat or that Iraq’s breakup is inevitable, they are likely to take steps that will accelerate the country’s disintegration.”

But even without a civil war, analysts say, Iraq will hover on the verge of calamity if it cannot end violence and sustain democracy. The Middle East is accustomed to upheaval, but Iraq’s size, geography and instability threaten to affect the politics and economies of its neighbors for years. Even the prosperous emirate of Dubai is feeling the burden.

“Violence damages the image of the region,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist at Emirates University in Dubai. “If Iraq was stable, investment in Dubai would be 10 times more than what it is now. Iraq’s putting us in second gear when we want to be in fourth and fifth gears.”

Across its southern marshes that border Iran, its western rim running along Syria and its northern mountains that shadow Turkey, Iraq can easily export its problems to other nations. Refugees could flood Jordan. Militants could use Syria as a portal for activities across the region. Restive Kurdish populations in Iran and Turkey could seek to join Iraqi Kurds in an independent state.

“Iraq is a big country that’s ripe to be a big base of terrorism and drugs and arms smuggling,” said Abdel Moneim Said, director of the Al Ahram Center for Political Studies in Cairo. “It’s leading to more radicalization in the region. I think the current crisis has passed for the moment, but Iraq’s problems are not going away. It’s unfortunately showing that democratization leads to division. That’s very alarming for building multicultural democracy in the region.”

The trend toward democracy in the Middle East has meant big wins for Islamist parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. The question is whether these parties will be forced to become more mainstream in order to govern, or whether they will harden their Islamist agendas against the West and Israel. What emerges in Iraq could influence the tilt of such politics.

“The scariest part is if the jihadists, those guys like [Osama] bin Laden, come to power in Iraq,” said Abdulla, sipping green tea from a silver set in the polished lobby of a Dubai hotel. “That’s more dangerous than the breakup of Iraq. It may not happen in the next five years, but if the Americans and the Iraqi government can’t stop this violence, it is a possibility in the future.”

Many in the region doubt that Iraq will veer into civil war. The country has seemed at the precipice many times, but has retreated even as insurgents attempt to capitalize on sectarian passions. The bombing last month of a Shiite shrine at Samarra and the ensuing violence have not splintered the nation, although Iraqi and U.S. officials are more concerned than before.

“I don’t think things will get worse in Iraq,” said Khalil Meiss, a mufti in the Bekaa and Zahle region of Lebanon, where young foreign militants have tried to cross into Iraq. “The people are taking the blows and not being drawn into a bigger conflict. What could possibly happen worse than what happened at Samarra? If that didn’t cause a civil war, what will?”

Sitting in an office in Beirut, Meiss added, “The Iraqi Sunnis aren’t seeing any encouragement from neighboring majority-Sunni countries, so I don’t think a fully blown sectarian conflict will happen.”

But the brutality has disillusioned many Middle East capitals. Talk of financial investment and sending Arab police forces has become muted, and any hint of optimism has vanished. Many analysts say the region is witnessing the limits of U.S. military power and the inability of Iraq’s neighbors to come up with solutions to ease the crisis.

“In the beginning, there was much talk about building a new Iraq,” said Alani, the Dubai security analyst. “You don’t hear that anymore. Today, it’s about damage-limitation policy. Countries have to protect themselves and limit their damage from Iraq. Where have the ideas gone? Sending in Arab police? That idea’s out the window. Investment? Out the window.”

The unrest has caused some to reflect on other conflicts that have strained the Middle East in recent decades. Mohammed Qabbani, a Sunni member of the Lebanese parliament, said Iraq’s bloodshed had surpassed that of his country’s 15-year civil war.

“I think what’s happening in Iraq is more savage,” he said. During the war in Beirut, he added, “if you’d stick to your house you’d be safe. In Iraq, you’re not safe even if you stick to your house.... I wouldn’t go to Iraq now. But I’m not Iraqi. Maybe an Iraqi thinks like how I felt during the Lebanese war.”

Times staff writer Fleishman was recently on assignment in Dubai. Special correspondent Rania Abouzeid in Beirut contributed to this report.