Ukraine May Tip to the West or to the Past in Voting

Amid fears that disputes over the vote count could trigger violence, citizens head to the polls here today in a presidential election marked by a fierce battle between pro-Western and Moscow-oriented candidates.

Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, widely viewed as a free-market democratic reformer, is facing Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who is popular in Ukraine’s largely Russian-speaking east, in an exceptionally harsh campaign.

Thirteen years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the election marks a critical moment in Ukraine’s history. The outcome could move this country of 48 million either toward warmer ties with Western Europe and the United States or back into a tighter post-Soviet relationship with Russia.

The election, said Igor Zaytsev, a 31-year-old businessman who supports Yushchenko, will decide “whether it will be yesterday or tomorrow in Ukraine.”

Polls show the two men roughly tied for the lead in a field of 24 candidates, with neither expected to receive the 50% support required to win office. A runoff between the top two finishers, if needed, would be Nov. 21. The winner would succeed President Leonid D. Kuchma, who has been in power for 10 years.

Yushchenko, whose wife, Kateryna, is a Ukrainian American born in Chicago, draws his strongest support in western Ukraine. Many of his followers believe that he has a strong lead despite pro-Yanukovich coverage on state-run television and recent polls showing each with about 35% support. Convinced that authorities will try to cheat, the opposition seems unlikely to quietly accept second place.

Exit polls, including one financed by the U.S. Embassy and other Western diplomatic missions, plus an unofficial “parallel” count of ballots by Yushchenko supporters, are expected to give some indication whether the official tally is accurate.

A mysterious illness suffered by Yushchenko in September has increased suspicion between the two camps. Yushchenko charges that he was poisoned in an assassination attempt -- something his doctors in Austria have said they can neither rule out nor prove. Yanukovich supporters have ridiculed the charge.

Yushchenko, 50, speaking to about 100,000 supporters at a rally, declared himself sure to win and called on them to defend their choice by keeping watch over balloting. In a reference to the possibility that authorities may crack down on protests against irregularities, he urged soldiers to reject illegal orders.

“Remember that cockroaches and cheaters are afraid of light,” he said. “Please report any falsifications you see, any provocations. Please know that anyone who smashes windows or breaks into stores or drinks vodka on election day is a provocateur, and he serves those who want to steal your choice.”

Kuchma’s election to a second term in 1999 was criticized by Western rights groups for violating standards of fairness, as was the 2002 parliamentary election. Kuchma has also faced protests over allegations that he was implicated in the 2000 slaying of a reporter. The current election is seen by some as a referendum on his rule.

Yanukovich, 54, has built his campaign around recent increases in government-paid social benefits, particularly for pensioners, and on pledges to make Russian a second official language. About half of Ukraine’s citizens -- particularly those in the east -- are more comfortable speaking Russian than Ukrainian, surveys show.

Artur Turischev, 19, a student who favors Yanukovich, said “it was a stupid idea” to separate Ukraine from Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed, and now it was time to restore closer ties.

“Russia will not conquer us. It’s our closest friend,” he said. “I think Yushchenko is more oriented to the United States.”

Ukraine’s economy contracted sharply in the 1990s, and critics say its business environment is among the world’s most corrupt. But there has been strong economic growth since 2000, including expansion at a 13% annual rate this year -- an accomplishment Yanukovich stresses.

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin weighed in on the election with a visit last week that included an hourlong televised question-and-answer session widely seen as an effort to boost Yanukovich’s chances.

Until his appointment as prime minister in 2002, Yanukovich -- who projects the stiff style of a Soviet-era bureaucrat -- was not generally seen as presidential material. Some observers say that, if he wins, he might go along with proposals to shift most power from the president to the prime minister, and that Kuchma, 66, could move to that post, retaining his hold on the country. Critics say Kuchma picked Yanukovich as his successor with that in mind.

A factory manager and Communist Party member in the Soviet era, Yanukovich entered politics in 1997, with his appointment as deputy head of the eastern region of Donetsk.

Yushchenko’s campaign has repeatedly called attention to revelations that, as a youth, the prime minister served prison time on charges of robbery and assault. A biography distributed on behalf of Yanukovich says that “having suffered through a very tragic and tough childhood ... the prime minister acknowledges regrettable youthful indiscretions, resulting in criminal charges that were eventually overturned by a Ukrainian court.”

Opponents acknowledge that a court expunged his criminal record decades ago but question the reasons.

Many Yushchenko supporters say they find it unacceptable that a man of Yanukovich’s background might become their president. But the prime minister’s supporters say it is not unusual for a working-class youth to have had some run-ins with the police during Soviet times, and Yanukovich’s tough-guy image works in his favor among some voters.

“He’s a very strong person. He won’t fall under anyone’s influence,” said Evgeniy Kharchenko, 19, a student.

Someone who has been in jail can still be “a good manager,” said Alexander Skryashevskiy, 21, another Yanukovich supporter. “Everyone has made mistakes in their life.”

Speaking at a news conference Thursday, Yanukovich hit back at critics who say that state-run and other nationwide television stations have been blatantly biased, arguing that he has merely been performing his duties as prime minister and has not campaigned until the last two weeks.

“As far as the mass media are concerned, it is your duty and your job to follow in particular my activities as prime minister,” he said, adding that questions of violations of fair campaign practices are for Ukrainian courts and the Central Election Commission -- not foreign election observers -- to decide.

Yanukovich also charged that demonstrations planned for election day and the day after amounted to “direct pressure on the electoral process.”

“I think those calls for our citizens not to obey, to picket the Central Election Commission and to get involved in some skirmishes actually should be considered an unlawful act,” he said.

Many here have in mind the recent examples of elections in Serbia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, where protesters alleged fraud. In the first two cases, incumbent presidents were forced out, while in Azerbaijan last year authorities responded with a harsh police crackdown on demonstrators and imprisonment of many opposition leaders.

Asked Thursday whether Yushchenko’s camp had made contacts with the armed forces and security services in an effort to establish the type of rapport that helped the opposition come to power in Serbia and Georgia, his campaign manager Oleksandr Zinchenko replied that “of course it has been happening.”

Zinchenko declined to give details of planned protests but indicated that Yushchenko supporters would not accept what they believed to be cheating.

“Are we prepared for the actions of our opponents and organizers of these pseudo-elections?” he asked. “Yes, we are ready.”