3,2,1,0 ... Wait a Second

When he proposes that the moon be a steppingstone for manned flight to Mars in a speech at NASA headquarters today, President Bush isn’t likely to be chasing only the glory of space exploration. Every president wants to check off that “vision thing” box before facing voters. And aerospace companies could use the money. Especially those in Bush country -- Texas and Florida.

The president’s speech today is expected to include several elements, but the headline grabber will be his push for a manned mission to Mars. The scientific rationale for the Mars trip is dubious at best. As James Van Allen, the physicist considered to be one of the founding fathers of space exploration, put it on Monday, the United States could explore Mars robotically “at far less cost and far greater quantity and quality of results.”

Even if a manned Mars mission promised rich scientific rewards, however, there are serious doubts about the nation’s ability to pay for it. Like his father, who in 1989 proposed but did not push for funds for sending people to Mars, Bush hasn’t even begun to suggest how the nation could afford the estimated $1-trillion cost over the next few decades.

That’s not to say that the space agency can’t benefit from presidential direction. NASA is still saddled with three grounded space shuttles and a leaking, low-orbit space station. The agency is a shadow of its former Cold War self.

In that context, Bush deserves credit for broaching the question of where NASA ought to be headed. The president is asking NASA to phase out the space shuttle program, a sensible recognition that the craft are long beyond their intended design life. Also, in a rare but reasonable admission of dependency on another nation, Bush is expected to rely on Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft to carry on the shuttles’ mission of transporting humans to and from the International Space Station. And, in spite of his attempt at razzle-dazzle by suggesting that humans should shoot past the moon to go to Mars, Bush is suggesting that most of the $800-million increase in the NASA budget go to robotic, not human, space missions.

The president also wants to establish a moon base, which some have suggested could house an interfaith lunar chapel or a low-gravity golf course. Not all of the arguments for establishing a moon base are wacky. Space enthusiasts have contended that a new lunar campaign could reinvigorate the manned space program and open up the solar system to future exploration.

The desire, as “Star Trek’s” Capt. Kirk used to say, “to boldly go where no man has gone before” is deep. Someday, people indeed may go to Mars. But the United States is now saddled with deficits that Bush encouraged into the next half-century. So the planning for a manned Mars landing will have to wait unromantically behind planning for the earthly concern of paying the bills. As the rover is demonstrating on Mars, sending not man but man-made spacecraft to mine the solar system can still produce wonders.