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4 Years Later, Florida Is Still Divided, Still Crucial

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Times Staff Writers

For four years Florida has symbolized President Bush’s controversial ascent to power following an election fracas replete with hanging chads, butterfly ballots and legal fights all the way to the Supreme Court.

Now this politically complex state -- a mosaic of cultures and ideologies -- is again a crucial battleground in the waning days of a presidential campaign.

Bush enjoys some clear advantages in the fight for Florida’s coveted 27 electoral votes. His brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, now wields more influence than ever over the state’s election system. Secretary of State Katherine Harris had been elected to that post, but her successor, thanks to a change approved by Florida voters before the 2000 election, calls the shots as an appointee of the governor.

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The president is even sharing the Florida ballot with his hand-picked candidate for the Senate, former Housing Secretary Mel Martinez, a Cuban immigrant who Republicans hope will draw Latinos to Bush.

But some early signs are positive for Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John F. Kerry, as well, with thousands of activists swooping into Florida to mobilize voters angry over 2000.

About 2 million people -- nearly one-fifth of the state’s registered voters -- have cast ballots early, in some cases waiting in line as long as four hours in heavily Democratic areas amid continued accusations of voter intimidation and suppression.

Four years ago, Republicans were stunned to learn from an internal poll one week before election day that Democrat Al Gore led Texas Gov. George W. Bush by 1 point in a state they once considered a safe bet.

This time, with two days to go, the polls suggest gridlock again.

“Last time a week out it was 44-45 [%] with Gore ahead,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster whose clients include Jeb Bush. “This time there are more people decided, and it’s more intense on both sides, and yet it’s still a dead heat.

“At this point, you can’t worry about the polls,” Newhouse continued. “You have to worry about turning out voters.”

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Florida politics has in many ways been defined in recent years by the residual tension of the 2000 recount, with Republicans eager to prove in 2004 that Bush’s win was no fluke and Democrats promising revenge for the 36-day recount battle that was settled by a divided U.S. Supreme Court. A favorite bumper sticker in left-leaning South Florida: “Redefeat Bush.”

“A crime was committed here four years ago,” Star Jones, co-host of ABC’s “The View” and a former prosecutor, said during a Friday night Kerry rally in Miami. “The last presidential election made us feel that someone was trying to perpetrate a skulduggery on us.”

Sunday marked the beginning of the end of that four-year battle, with Bush and Kerry campaigning in the state on the same day one final time -- Bush at rallies in Miami, Gainesville and Tampa, followed by Kerry on Sunday night in Tampa.

Four years ago, the candidates similarly homed in on the Tampa Bay region in the campaign’s final hours, hoping to win coverage in the state’s biggest media market and reach that area’s many swing voters.

Bush is not scheduled to return to Florida before Tuesday, but Kerry, who appeared in Miami on Friday night with rocker Bruce Springsteen, is expected to make his final appearance this morning in Orlando, the heart of Florida’s moderate, political swing region.

Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. John Edwards ends the campaign tonight with a late-night rally in Fort Lauderdale.

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For Bush, victory in Florida will require strong support from military families in north Florida, conservative Christians throughout the state, and among the traditionally Republican Cuban Americans in Miami along with the more Democratic-leaning non-Cuban Latinos across the state.

Kerry’s campaign has focused on mobilizing African Americans, Haitians, Jews and seniors -- all of whom are critical to the state’s Democratic strongholds in South Florida.

But in the final days, both sides are trying to dig into the other’s Florida base. Kerry unveiled some Spanish phrases in Miami on Friday, pointing across a downtown park to the historic Freedom Tower -- an important symbol to Cuban Americans who escaped Castro.

On the other side, a recent GOP flier featured a picture of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, to cast doubt among Jewish voters on Kerry’s support for Israel.

On Sunday morning, many Kerry-Edwards signs in heavily Jewish Miami Beach were defaced with stickers reading, “Arafat endorses,” although it was not clear who was responsible.

Perhaps the most poignant signal of all that Florida’s emotions continue to run high is the massive turnout for early voting, with millions taking advantage of a new state law designed to encourage participation.

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On Sunday, the penultimate day of early voting in Florida, the line outside the Orange County Department of Elections office in Orlando snaked outside the front door and around the building as hundreds waited an hour or more to cast ballots in 90-degree heat.

Men held umbrellas to shield them from the unrelenting sun, women fanned themselves with sample ballots, and both pulled moist shirts away from sweaty skin.

The line looked more like a queue outside a rock concert. Some wore brightly colored buttons exhorting the leadership qualities of Bush while others wore T-shirts and hats that showed allegiance to Kerry.

They might have differed over their choice of candidate, but most in the line agreed on at least one thing: They were voting early as a way to help avoid Tuesday’s inevitable rush. Some said they had lost confidence in Florida’s ability to run a smooth vote after the fiasco of 2000.

Others say they thought they would be challenged by either a GOP or Democratic observer trying to bring chaos to the process. Voting early, they said, might alleviate that dreaded standoff with an observer from another party.

“The Democratic Party wants everybody to vote early so we don’t get challenged. Because this is Florida. We don’t know how to conduct a vote, so of course there’s going to be problems,” said Pablo Nieves, 46, an insurance company medical case manager. “I’m a good Democrat, so that’s what I’m doing.”

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His nephew, Kenneth Torres, 19, a fry cook at a chicken eatery, looked at him hard.

“I’m voting Republican. I don’t know what he’s talking about,” he said.

Nieves turned and quickly punched him in the arm.

“No, he’s not.”

Torres smiled. “Actually, I want peace and love, not war, so I can’t vote for Bush.”

Near the front of the line, Gary Coachman held an umbrella over his head but was still sweating from the heat. He had wanted to cast an early vote for the last 10 days, but every time he passed an early voting site the line was hundreds of people long.

On Sunday, he ran into the same crowds, but figured he didn’t have a choice if he wanted to make sure his vote was cast before Tuesday.

Election day itself could be long and chaotic.

Each side has hired more than 5,000 poll observers and lawyers -- many of whom will be armed with cameras to capture potential evidence for legal challenges. Both sides have already put high-powered lawyers to work examining absentee ballots and, in Miami, monitoring the early proceedings of the county’s canvassing board. Each side has accused the other of planning to cheat.

In Tallahassee, site of much of the legal wrangling four years ago, hundreds of journalists from around the world have requested credentials for Tuesday night -- a sign that much of the political world expects mayhem to return.

“My take on Florida is that whoever winds up with the most votes on Tuesday night, that’s a good sign for him,” said Newhouse, the GOP pollster. “But all of those votes won’t be counted till long after Tuesday. With provisional ballots and everything else, it’s going to be a very, very close race.”

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